Will Scotland vote for independence?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Probably around 20-30% in favor.

Almost certainly sub-25% and probably less than that. It's not a serious possibility and there will never be vote on the matter.

'Scotland 2006.'

Things can change, obviously. But for now it makes about as much sense to talk about referendums on Yorkshire Independence as Welsh Independence.

Hypothetically speaking, in the case of such a referendum this would be the best YES would do - and same patterns do.

As for the question at hand. If the referendum is in 2018-2019, no, if it is in 2021-2023 then yeah I think so.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I think that, in recent years, Wales has very much converged with England, politically speaking. See the similar scores for UKIP, Brexit and the like on both sides of the Border. Scotland, on the other had, really diverged under Thatcher, and by 2006 already voted quite markedly different to England.

So there doesn't really seem to be the scope for Welsh polling on independence to go the way that Scotland has.

The salient fact of the recent history of Wales is this: as administrative and political devolution has occurred, Wales has actually become even more integrated culturally and economically with England.

Have the various parts of Wales ever been more economically integrated with each other than with nearby parts of England?

Even now, how much connections are there between Newport and Anglesea that there isn't between two those places and, say, Birmingham?