Will Scotland vote for independence?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Probably around 20-30% in favor.

Almost certainly sub-25% and probably less than that. It's not a serious possibility and there will never be vote on the matter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Probably around 20-30% in favor.

Almost certainly sub-25% and probably less than that. It's not a serious possibility and there will never be vote on the matter.

'Scotland 2006.'

Things can change, obviously. But for now it makes about as much sense to talk about referendums on Yorkshire Independence as Welsh Independence.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think that, in recent years, Wales has very much converged with England, politically speaking. See the similar scores for UKIP, Brexit and the like on both sides of the Border. Scotland, on the other had, really diverged under Thatcher, and by 2006 already voted quite markedly different to England.

So there doesn't really seem to be the scope for Welsh polling on independence to go the way that Scotland has.

The salient fact of the recent history of Wales is this: as administrative and political devolution has occurred, Wales has actually become even more integrated culturally and economically with England.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have the various parts of Wales ever been more economically integrated with each other than with nearby parts of England?

Never.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

None. I mean, Nooporrrt has more connections to Bristol than it does with anywhere in Wales west of Cardiff, and the main football clubs in North Wales are the Liverpool and Manchester teams...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Example of extent of economic integration: remember the collective Horror Spasm last year when the Port Talbot steelworks were threatened? It is, of course, the largest private sector employer in Wales. Where do its products end up? Engineering firms and automotive manufacturers in the Midlands and North West (and as a result the Manchester-Cardiff railway line is v. important in terms of freight traffic).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, seems like Sturgeon can't win here. Wonder what the next fish will be.

Though under present circumstances maintaining the constitutional issue at the absolute centre of political life is a massive win...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You mean because it distracts May from her pathological Tory urge to snatch money away from the hands of poor children, the sick, and the elderly?

Good point.

No, I meant from the point of view of the SNP.

Besides, the Tories are not at all into snatching money away from the elderly these days.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That figure is misleading, although in a way that further demonstrates the differences I guess. The main maternity hospitals for most parts of Wales close to the border are in England; e.g. most families in Flintshire have their children in Chester, most in Mid Wales in Shrewsbury, etc.