Will Generation Z be more conservative?

[🕴🏼Melior🕴🏼]

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[ApatheticAustrian]

not more conservative, but arguably more secular-right-wing-ism.

kids of 2008.

[🕴🏼Melior🕴🏼]

Acccording to the poll I linked, members of Generation Z overwhelmingly chose Trump. Members of Generation Z are also much more conservative on issues than Millenials according to studies.

Is this a sign that Gen Z will be the most conservative one in decades?

[🕴🏼Melior🕴🏼]

Well, these numbers kinda are at odds with scholastic and other reputable pollsters, so let's stave off dubbing them as extremely conservative. Remember, the first Millennials voted for Bush in mock elections

Hispanic Heritage Foundation is certainly a reputable pollster (more so than Scholastic). And the Scholastic poll included children of all ages, while this poll on includes those ages 14-18.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I've also seen other polls attributing a conservative bent to Gen Z. I don't expect the divide to be this stark, but the evidence suggests that they are going to be more right-wing than the Millennials.

[Virginiá]

18-24 year olds last year was Clinton's strongest age group. It's hard to see citizens just 1-4 years younger swinging wildly against Democrats, especially considering their demographic makeup. Putting aside this particular study, one should note that high school students can and often do change their views at least somewhat, and that young adulthood (18-25 specifically) is a time where partisan loyalties tend to form. In other words, even if they genuinely were more conservative, I'd wait for them to go through college first and see where they end up.

That being said, I could see gen z white voters to swing more Republican. Perhaps not by a lot, but maybe back to the national average for white voters. I dunno, we'll see. We've also had this discussion a few times in the 2020 presidential election board and in presidential election trends.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Well, these numbers kinda are at odds with scholastic and other reputable pollsters, so let's stave off dubbing them as extremely conservative. Remember, the first Millennials voted for Bush in mock elections

Could you link to those polls?

I found this one http://election.scholastic.com/vote/

But

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[Virginiá]

This special pleading is precisely why I strongly opposed Virginia for mod. I'm never a fan of special pleading. I'm a fan of correct prediction.

Why are you so obsessed with this?

[Phony Moderate]

18-24 year olds last year was Clinton's strongest age group.

I recall seeing data suggesting that 18-19 yos voted well to the right of those in their early 20s.

[Gass3268]

No, the most diverse generation ever will not be more conservative.

[Virginiá]

18-24 year olds last year was Clinton's strongest age group.

I recall seeing data suggesting that 18-19 yos voted well to the right of those in their early 20s.

Was that for 2016? I remember in 2012, there was evidence that 18-20 year olds voted pretty strongly for Romney, at least according to a look at EP data, yet 4 years later they basically voted the opposite way when you look at the 18-24 group. My point being that we need to watch how these people vote over several elections before drawing conclusions.

[Tintrlvr]

Putting aside issues of methodology, polls of high school students' views on issues are largely polls of their parents' views on issues. It's not meaningful one way or another.

[Ronnie]

I don't know, but if the American political system has proven to be consistent about one thing throughout the years, it is that it tends to correct against single party dominance.  Assuming millennials remain as firmly against the GOP as they are now, I think it's quite probable we'll see a liberal and progressive renaissance sometime in the 2020s or 2030s.  After that, the pendulum will probably swing sharply in the other direction.  If Gen Z is not the generation to effect that change, then it will be the generation after it.  

The most interesting question to me is whether Donald Trump will shape the ideology of Republican youth in his image, or whether most young right-wingers will embrace a more pluralistic and less nationalistic conservatism.  I predict those two factions will engage in a protracted battle over the heart and soul of the Republican Party.

[I Won - Get Over It]

If you want to waste your time worrying about the results of a stupid poll like this, by all means, but here's some links to soothe your anxiety:

Why is this poll 'stupid'? Because you don't like the results?

[Technocracy Timmy]

They'll almost surely be more conservative than millennials. Maybe more conservative than Xers. It's tough to say because they are an incredibly racially and ethnically diverse generation but the rise of the alt right and anti PC, anti SJW sentiments seems to have come in large part from today's teenagers.

I do think that they'll be a highly racially polarized generation. The white teens of this generation will probably be voting more conservative than white millennial and white Xers. The white kids of this generation could be the most republican voting bloc since white boomers or the white silent generation.

But they'll be a different kind of conservative. They'll be more secular, economically populist, and nationalist.

[Classic Conservative]

Yes, from my experiences at least in a liberal part of Massachusetts, most white teens my age and a little older are more conservative than the millennials, which most of us despise with a passion. They mostly have been shaped by their parents who were born in the mid-60's, the rise of memes, sadly, and hatred of the feminist and SJW movement. They aren't staunch conservatives and some are even 'liberal' republicans, socially progressive except abortion and economically conservative. Though staunch republicans are nationalistic and I'd even comprehend that a large portion >20% are white nationalists or some sort of racial purists.

[EnglishPete]

If this is the case it could be to do with the way they consume the news. Millennials would have been the last generation to grow up with traditional media outlets still providing them with the bulk of their news information. I imagine that can make a difference, I don't know if you've seen the below post

[Technocracy Timmy]

Yes, from my experiences at least in a liberal part of Massachusetts, most white teens my age and a little older are more conservative than the millennials, which most of us despise with a passion. They mostly have been shaped by their parents who were born in the mid-60's, the rise of memes, sadly, and hatred of the feminist and SJW movement. They aren't staunch conservatives and some are even 'liberal' republicans, socially progressive except abortion and economically conservative. Though staunch republicans are nationalistic and I'd even comprehend that a large portion >20% are white nationalists or some sort of racial purists.

Where I live I'd feel comfortable jacking that number up to 30-35% of white gen z youth.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Well, frankly, measuring the voting preferences of high schoolers in general is next to impossible without a nationwide mock vote, given that none have land-lines, most are probably on some sort of no-call list, and most high schoolers don't follow politics at all.

A mock election is not representative. A random poll is. (I am not sure though it this particular poll is random).

I'm not saying that one should pay too much attention to one poll, but one should not disregard it either.

[Associate Justice PiT]

If this is the case it could be to do with the way they consume the news. Millennials would have been the last generation to grow up with traditional media outlets still providing them with the bulk of their news information. I imagine that can make a difference, I don't know if you've seen the below post

     While I have expressed similar ideas in the past, I will be a little self-critical and point out that that post reminds me a lot of those accounts of "woke eight-year olds".

[LLR]

Whites, maybe. Rural whites, definitely. Everybody else, no way.

[OneJ]

Whites, maybe. Rural whites, definitely. Everybody else, no way.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Whites, DEFINITELY. Rural whites, 100%. Everybody else, probably not.

Pretty much what I think. It's not a coincidence  to see young white teens nowadays with this haircut:



Also people with large followings like PewDiePie don't just put Nazi and antisemetic undertones into their videos for no reason. He just happens to know his audience very, very well and is tapping into those sentiments for views.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Whites, DEFINITELY. Rural whites, 100%. Everybody else, probably not.

Pretty much what I think. It's not a coincidence  to see young white teens nowadays with this haircut:



Also people with large followings like PewDiePie don't just put Nazi and antisemetic undertones into their videos for no reason. He just happens to know his audience very, very well and is tapping into those sentiments for views.

Come on, dude. PewDiePie isn't exactly watched by 20%+ of their generation. Can we stop with the overgeneralizations?

This entire thread is filled with over generalizations. That's what happens when you start a thread asking whether or not a generation where the oldest members aren't even 18 yet will be more conservative or not.

Most of my experience with these kids online and in person points to a significantly more conservative group, especially among the white youth. But even some of the Hispanic and Asian kids seem to also have nationalist tendencies so yeah.

[OneJ]

Whites, DEFINITELY. Rural whites, 100%. Everybody else, probably not.

Pretty much what I think. It's not a coincidence  to see young white teens nowadays with this haircut:



Also people with large followings like PewDiePie don't just put Nazi and antisemetic undertones into their videos for no reason. He just happens to know his audience very, very well and is tapping into those sentiments for views.

Come on, dude. PewDiePie isn't exactly watched by 20%+ of their generation. Can we stop with the overgeneralizations?

I have to agree. "Don'the judge a book by its cover."