Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[Badger]

So, he doesn't really have a strategy then, huh?

Anyone who thought he had a strategy in the first place was vastly overestimating him.

He stumbled into most of his victories. Some of them were helped along by others who did know what they were doing, but Trump has no over-arching strategy. He has goals, which are to be important/powerful and to make money. But strategy and forethought? Nope. Never has and never will.

I don't know which is worse. That you're right (which you are) about the President of the US being clueless and a little lucky, or the people who still think he's got some sort of strategic vision beyond, as you said, greed and lust for power.

This (all 3 posts) X 10

[Tintrlvr]

Why does Trump want to die on this hill when it's been reported he's mad at Ryam and Mitch for saddling him with this issue?

Can't stand to be seen as losing/weak. Simply not addressing the issue is one thing, but trying to address the issue and failing is much worse from his perspective (and he's not wrong from a political perspective; the Republicans would be a lot better off if they had put repeal on hold for other issues and then said "Oops, we ran out of time." Voters would have largely forgotten the promise to repeal once no one was talking about it).

[pbrower2a]

gop should really expel mccain. anyway after next year senate elections republicans will have at least 57 seats, so trumpcare will easily pass.

Cool story, bro.

While it's still likely the GOP gains seats in 2018 because the Dems performed way above expectations in 2012, there's no way they gain five seats with Trump as President. Heck, it's remotely possible that Dems retake the Senate in 2018 (Nevada, Arizona, and Arizona special) but even that would require Trump deliberately sabotaging the ACA by screwing the marketplace insurers out of funds should get under current law.

52-
53- MT
54- ND
55- MO
56- IN
57- OH
58- WV
59- MI

It's very possible. None of those seats are safe D. And this is assuming Menendez doesn't go down in a corruption scandal.

Don't be dumb. You know that it would take a Republican wave for Democrats to lose all those seats, let alone more than like 3 or 4.

Democrats will lose all of them plus PA, filibuster-proof majority.

With an unpopular incumbent President? Congress in general in low esteem, but Republicans especially so? The only reason that there will not likely be a Democratic wave in the Senate there are few vulnerable Republicans due to Democratic gains of just about anything vulnerable to them in 2006 and 2012.

The Republican majority in the House is much more vulnerable.

But 2020... . 

[BudgieForce]

There are rumors Trump will announce an end to CSR payments tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/891692538066853888

[7,052,770]

Insurance companies will have no choice but to massively raise rates, which also means the Feds will pay a lot more in APTC subsidies.

[BudgieForce]

Insurance companies will have no choice but to massively raise rates, which also means the Feds will pay a lot more in APTC subsidies.

Yep, which is why this would be such a stupid and short sighted move.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Insurance companies will have no choice but to massively raise rates, which also means the Feds will pay a lot more in APTC subsidies.

Yep, which is why this would be such a stupid and short sighted move.

Remember that Trump's goal is to let ObamaCare implode to force lawmakers to repeal and replace it. Stopping CSRs aligns perfectly with that goal.

[7,052,770]

If CSRs go away, do insurers move all those members to the regular silver plan, greatly raising their deductible and other out of pocket costs, or do the insurers just have to eat the cost and try to make it up by jacking up 2018 (if still possible, otherwise 2019) premiums?

Law suggests it will have to be the latter, but HHS could just handwave it away, which to be fair, Obama did a few times himself.

[BudgieForce]

Insurance companies will have no choice but to massively raise rates, which also means the Feds will pay a lot more in APTC subsidies.

Yep, which is why this would be such a stupid and short sighted move.

Remember that Trump's goal is to let ObamaCare implode to force lawmakers to repeal and replace it. Stopping CSRs aligns perfectly with that goal.

But it might do the opposite. First and foremost, if Trump does stop CSR payments then he'll face an immediate lawsuit by the insurance companies. Secondly, theres bipartisan support to continue CSR payments so expect removal of Trump's authority on the matter to be taken away in the next debt limit fight. Third, consumers probably won't be effected that much, the money for the increased subsidies will come directly from the government. Lastly, this is one of Trump's last cards he can play in the healthcare fight. He'd loose alot of leverage.

[Devout Centrist]

There are rumors Trump will announce an end to CSR payments tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/891692538066853888

Yippee, his approvals will hit 25% by year's end

[Gass3268]

Insurance companies will have no choice but to massively raise rates, which also means the Feds will pay a lot more in APTC subsidies.

Yep, which is why this would be such a stupid and short sighted move.

Remember that Trump's goal is to let ObamaCare implode to force lawmakers to repeal and replace it. Stopping CSRs aligns perfectly with that goal.

It's more likely that Congress would take away his power to mess around with payments.

[The Other Castro]

Noam Levey @NoamLevey
Senate health cmte chair Alexander calls for " small, bipartisan & balanced" bill to stabilize insurance markets. That's actually a BIG deal

[Hindsight was 2020]

Noam Levey @NoamLevey
Senate health cmte chair Alexander calls for " small, bipartisan & balanced" bill to stabilize insurance markets. That's actually a BIG deal

That's adorable he thinks Trump will let this happen

[GeorgiaModerate]

Noam Levey @NoamLevey
Senate health cmte chair Alexander calls for " small, bipartisan & balanced" bill to stabilize insurance markets. That's actually a BIG deal

That's adorable he thinks Trump will let this happen

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Pericles]

The only bright side to Trump's handling of healthcare is that it is political suicide for himself and the GOP.

[Mike Thick]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/892475702511112198

Intentionally imploding the insurance market for political purposes is James Buchanan logic.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/892475702511112198

Intentionally imploding the insurance market for political purposes is James Buchanan logic.

Yes, but at this point that tweet is doing nothing more than communicating a rumor from an anonymous source. I doubt that Trump will actually go through with this given that everyone else in Washington is telling him not to.

[Mike Thick]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/892475702511112198

Intentionally imploding the insurance market for political purposes is James Buchanan logic.

Yes, but at this point that tweet is doing nothing more than communicating a rumor from an anonymous source. I doubt that Trump will actually go through with this given that everyone else in Washington is telling him not to.

He was a healthcare aficionado in the Obama admin. While there's obvious bias here, I give him a little more credibility than just someone who would spread unfounded rumors.

[Devout Centrist]

Tomorrow is the big decision day and I'm fairly certain he will cut the CSR's.

[Beet]

Tomorrow is the big decision day and I'm fairly certain he will cut the CSR's.

Then you should buy some 'Yes' shares on PredictIt which are only trading at 15%.

[Person Man]

Tomorrow is the big decision day and I'm fairly certain he will cut the CSR's.

Then you should buy some 'Yes' shares on PredictIt which are only trading at 15%.

Hey, if he does, that brings him below freezing..

[7,052,770]

Tomorrow is the big decision day and I'm fairly certain he will cut the CSR's.

I think he'll announce that he's paying them for one more month, and then we get to do this all over again in a month, when he'll announce that he's doing 1 more month, and so on.

[peter88]

Tomorrow is the big decision day and I'm fairly certain he will cut the CSR's.

I think he'll announce that he's paying them for one more month, and then we get to do this all over again in a month, when he'll announce that he's doing 1 more month, and so on.

I had something of a kind at my previous job. Half of the people left the following week, and the other half waited for a month till the company closed down

[Person Man]

Tomorrow is the big decision day and I'm fairly certain he will cut the CSR's.

I think he'll announce that he's paying them for one more month, and then we get to do this all over again in a month, when he'll announce that he's doing 1 more month, and so on.

Nothing on this?

[BudgieForce]

Tomorrow is the big decision day and I'm fairly certain he will cut the CSR's.

I think he'll announce that he's paying them for one more month, and then we get to do this all over again in a month, when he'll announce that he's doing 1 more month, and so on.

Nothing on this?

The big announcement seems to be Jim Justice switching parties so I if Trump does stop CSR payments, the announcement wont be tonight.