Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[Yank2133]

Meadows says that the Senate bill isn't conservative enough to pass in the House.

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This all feels like they're setting up the bill to fail. Collins seems to have been the one to signal the mood is now about ACA stabilization. But it's too close to call.

I think Ron Johnson is for the bill. Paul, Murkowski, Heller, Collins all have major reasons to oppose the law based on their state profiles and when they're up for reelection. I think Capito might be able to vote yes.

Also on my radar: Flake of Arizona. He's from a marginal Trump state. With lots of old people.

Flake supports it, and Murkowski and Paul don't really have a real electoral reason to oppose it. Opposing it may make them the 51st vote that saved Obamacare. That wouldn't be good for a primary

True. I don't know .

But Collins' Twitter statement specifically alludes to shoring up ObamaCare. I don't know but if she - a 2020 - is making that statement I am starting to think that the 2020 people are figuring the healthcare markets won't be stable enough by then. It makes me think she said it specifically because she knows there isn't support for the law within the Senate. She's not supposed to be on the pass list as she's up in Maine and she's a fairly loyal Republican.

She wouldn't be doing this if she didn't calculate the numbers. She's not one to go on a limb alone. With the other statements coming right after her I suspect a stampede to say no. The senators, I feel, want an off ramp now.

But I could be wrong…

But what do Republicans tell their base if they give up on it? They can't just do literally nothing in the lead up to 2018 and have the audacity to ask for more power then

I don't think the base is going to care, especially if the GOP gets tax reform done.

I have said it before, but McConnell's best move is for this bill to flop and then 6-8 months from now cut a deal with Democrats in the middle of the night to stabilize the exchanges.

It is not a great outcome for them, but it is much better then passing a **** bill and then owning the issue and it's problems for the foreseeable future.

[The_Doctor]

But what do Republicans tell their base if they give up on it? They can't just do literally nothing in the lead up to 2018 and have the audacity to ask for more power then

If you asked me point blank they would basically say they couldn't pass it and they would rather reform the law to make it better. Basically the pool of angry voters seeing higher premiums and losing insurance outweighs the number of people in the Republican base…

The base had to demonstrate strong support for their position in 2016. Clearly they couldn't so (judging by popular vote and House %) maybe you argue that Republican senators are making the cold calculation that their base will swallow hard and move on, especially if the economy is okay or recovering by 2019… a matter of simple arithmetic…

Trump's #s also make the whole thing worse. It's just better to keep that log off the flames. The base may understand this and take what they can get.

[The_Doctor]

To expand on this why would the GOP want to own the AHCA and be saddled with it instead of removing it as an issue? They would be hammered for it based on the CBO score and they would instantly be the party defending the law. Why not just fail the AHCA, cut a deal with Democrats, and then move onto tax reform?

The numbers all strongly suggest that the GOP is better off with this strategy than passing this law and being beaten with a 2x4 on the law from now until 2024.

[Yank2133]

Funny thing is Democrats will play ball with them if the GOP is serious about fixing the ACA problems. And the media and public love bipartisanship, so they will ignore the GOP's hypocrisy on this issue the last 8 years.

[Mr. Morden]

But what do Republicans tell their base if they give up on it? They can't just do literally nothing in the lead up to 2018 and have the audacity to ask for more power then

Sure they can.  Voters don't care about policy wins.  I think Bill Scher is largely right on this:

"Trump isn't accomplishing anything, but his voters don't care."

[The_Doctor]

Funny thing is Democrats will play ball with them if the GOP is serious about fixing the ACA problems. And the media and public love bipartisanship, so they will ignore the GOP's hypocrisy on this issue the last 8 years.

Exactly. The Democrats have incentive here to enshrine the law and make it permanent and remove the ACA as a political football. So they would play ball.

Once again the Republican Congress doesn't have a good reason to pass this beyond the Republican base and the White House. In the White House's case, since Trump's constantly turning on a dime, he's unreliable (as Graham said). His approval ratings aren't giving the Republican caucus cover either so they're vulnerable.

Why not cut a deal and be done with it? It neuters the base, the White House, and the issue as a political weapon. It allows them to move onto (deficit raising) tax cuts. And it allows them to focus on friendlier ground.

I would say my gut is that the bill fails the motion to get to debate as Republican senators push the White House to shore up the markets and stabilize the exchanges. That's the big priority and providing stability right now is the big issue so a deal could come several months from now. But I could be wrong…

Reconciliation authority also needs to be swapped out for tax reform too to salvage the legislative year.

[The_Doctor]

But what do Republicans tell their base if they give up on it? They can't just do literally nothing in the lead up to 2018 and have the audacity to ask for more power then

Sure they can.  Voters don't care about policy wins.  I think Bill Scher is largely right on this:

"Trump isn't accomplishing anything, but his voters don't care."

Nate Silver points out Trump's voters aren't enough for the Republican Party. They need more than just that which affects their political calculation.

[Hindsight was 2020]

WH offical told CNN the HC bill is "on the verge of losing"

[Mr. Morden]

But what do Republicans tell their base if they give up on it? They can't just do literally nothing in the lead up to 2018 and have the audacity to ask for more power then

Sure they can.  Voters don't care about policy wins.  I think Bill Scher is largely right on this:

"Trump isn't accomplishing anything, but his voters don't care."

Nate Silver points out Trump's voters aren't enough for the Republican Party. They need more than just that which affects their political calculation.

OK, but swing voters wouldn't be happy with AHCA passing either.

What I was suggesting was that the idea that the GOP electorate in particular is going to be mad if Congress fails to pass ACA repeal seems unlikely to me.  I don't think it's true.  I don't think voters care that much about policy as such.  They care about what happens to them.  There was anti-Obamacare passion on the right, but that was really just anti-Obama passion.  Now that Obama himself is gone, I doubt many Republican voters rate it as a high priority issue.

Congress failing to repeal the ACA isn't going to turn normal Republican voters against either Trump or Republicans in Congress.  In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if, a year from now, a large percentage of the electorate won't even be able to correctly answer a poll question on whether Obamacare has been repealed or not.

[The_Doctor]

But what do Republicans tell their base if they give up on it? They can't just do literally nothing in the lead up to 2018 and have the audacity to ask for more power then

Sure they can.  Voters don't care about policy wins.  I think Bill Scher is largely right on this:

"Trump isn't accomplishing anything, but his voters don't care."

Nate Silver points out Trump's voters aren't enough for the Republican Party. They need more than just that which affects their political calculation.

OK, but swing voters wouldn't be happy with AHCA passing either.

What I was suggesting was that the idea that the GOP electorate in particular is going to be mad if Congress fails to pass ACA repeal seems unlikely to me.  I don't think it's true.  I don't think voters care that much about policy as such.  They care about what happens to them.  There was anti-Obamacare passion on the right, but that was really just anti-Obama passion.  Now that Obama himself is gone, I doubt many Republican voters rate it as a high priority issue.

Congress failing to repeal the ACA isn't going to turn normal Republican voters against either Trump or Republicans in Congress.  In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if, a year from now, a large percentage of the electorate won't even be able to correctly answer a poll question on whether Obamacare has been repealed or not.

Sorry for being unclear. I actually agree. Republican base voters don't care as long as it doesn't negatively impact them. When Iraq began affecting the lives of young soldiers from Bush country Republican voters began turning against the war, for example. Years later they tossed Jeb Bush for his brother's presidency during the Great Crash.

So yeah I agree.

[7,052,770]

In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if, a year from now, a large percentage of the electorate won't even be able to correctly answer a poll question on whether Obamacare has been repealed or not.

Yeah, weren't there polls back in like 2014 saying that a majority (or significant chunk) of Republicans thought Obamacare had already been repealed?

[Brittain33]

In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if, a year from now, a large percentage of the electorate won't even be able to correctly answer a poll question on whether Obamacare has been repealed or not.

Yeah, weren't there polls back in like 2014 saying that a majority (or significant chunk) of Republicans thought Obamacare had already been repealed?

Well 30% of the country thought Obama was a Muslim terrorist, and 30% of the country now thinks that Russians changed the results of the election.

Literally changed votes, or changed the outcome of the election? The CIA agrees with the latter.

[The_Doctor]

So let's do a look.

Murkowski has PP issues. Moore Capito and Portman have opioid and Medicaid issues. Heller is generally vehemently opposed. Paul thinks it's too liberal. Cruz and Lee ditto, but are more gettable. Moran, just a general statement. Collins wants to shore up the law.

The problem is that the Medicaid expansion is way too difficult. Capito Moore and Portman now are on record saying that they want to essentially preserve it. Ditto Heller and Collins. But any move leftwards endangers the bill from the House conservatives.

The Senate GOP has taken the tactic that polarization isn't enough to save them here. They don't want to be haunted by the law. They appear to believe that any law passed will be ongoing and litigated legally and politically. This is relevant for the 2020 folks and possibly 2022 too.

My feel is that the statements this afternoon were put out to basically kill the bill and make it impossible for McConnell to craft a compromise on Friday.

Collins, Heller, Murkowski, and Moore Capito have essentially made statements that are very hard for 51 Republican senators and 218 House Republican Congressmen and women to get behind.

I could be wrong. But that's how I'm reading it.

[The_Doctor]

Additionally -- and this is entirely Trump's fault -- today shows that the 2020 people are now unsure if 2020 will be a Republican year. Collins isn't up until 2020 and neither is Moore Capito. That they said this implies that Trump's approval rating and behavior as president is weighing on their minds and they're not sure they want to add healthcare to a possible lousy 2020.

They wouldn't be behaving like this as much if they assumed Trump would win the reelect or even have a decent shot. The last six months is showing that they're better off not making healthcare an issue rather than rolling the dice. There's way too much uncertainty here.

[The_Doctor]

Lastly don't underestimate the GOP governors revolting here. Any law will need to survive the GOP governors too.

The bigger picture is that universal health care will come with the realignment.

[The Mikado]

According to Bill Kristol, McConnell isnt even pushing the bill or contacting GOP Senators who said they'll vote no...maybe hes just wants the whole thing done and gone.

McConnell knows that this bill is dead. Whether he rolls out a new bill the week of the 10th of July is the question.

[Person Man]

Just lol:

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...then promptly went golfing.

Feels good, man.

[Yank2133]

Additionally -- and this is entirely Trump's fault -- today shows that the 2020 people are now unsure if 2020 will be a Republican year. Collins isn't up until 2020 and neither is Moore Capito. That they said this implies that Trump's approval rating and behavior as president is weighing on their minds and they're not sure they want to add healthcare to a possible lousy 2020.

They wouldn't be behaving like this as much if they assumed Trump would win the reelect or even have a decent shot. The last six months is showing that they're better off not making healthcare an issue rather than rolling the dice. There's way too much uncertainty here.

Yup.

This whole episode shows why presidential leadership matters.

Now the GOP may still pass their bill, but this whole thing would be a lot easier if Trump was popular and knew something about the policy. The president is the one who is suppose to sell the bill to the public and Trump hasn't done that at all.

I mean compare his handling of the AHCA and compare it to Obama's handling of the ACA in 2009 and it is night and day.

[Hindsight was 2020]

But seriously what does the GOP do if this fails? They need the cuts from this to do tax reform

[Virginiá]

But seriously what does the GOP do if this fails? They need the cuts from this to do tax reform

Then they just do deficit spending, and if recent reports are to be believed, they will change the Senate rules to have reconciliation over-spending sunset at 20 or 30 years as opposed to 10 years.

It's not like they truly care about the debt. That's just a political weapon to beat Democrats with. Regardless of what happens with healthcare, they will get their tax cuts come hell or high water. Their wealthy backers demand it.

[Indy Texas]

But seriously what does the GOP do if this fails? They need the cuts from this to do tax reform

Then they just do deficit spending, and if recent reports are to be believed, they will change the Senate rules to have reconciliation over-spending sunset at 20 or 30 years as opposed to 10 years.

It's not like they truly care about the debt. That's just a political weapon to beat Democrats with. Regardless of what happens with healthcare, they will get their tax cuts come hell or high water. Their wealthy backers demand it.

You'll still have dead-enders like Cruz and Paul who won't vote for it because it doesn't cut spending [enough].

To be honest, I don't see how the GOP can get anything meaningful accomplished if things continue as they are. Their POTUS is completely disengaged and Congress is in a vise between the Tea Party fundies who have zero interest in governing and the purple state Republicans who know their voters aren't going to be enthused about an agenda that offers absolutely nothing to anyone who is not in the 0.1%.

[The_Doctor]

Anyway one more missive.

What's the most important thing for the GOP Senators voting on this? Avoiding controversy and uncertainty. All Senators and politicians hate controversy, because it puts them in a position to be unseated by someone, either within a primary or in a general election.

Take West Virginia. First term GOP Senator Moore Capito might not care in the slightest about WV's problems. But she will care about West Virginia's problems if the headlines continue to be damaging and talk up about how West Virginia's premiums have gone up for older people, and if the uninsurance rate has gone up. Now, she's the first Republican Senator in West Virginia in maybe, 100 years. She does care if negative headlines dog her in 2018 to 2020.

So, if you read her tweetstorm today, she's deliberately agitating over the Medicaid expansion and signaling she doesn't want it to end for West Virginia.

A ton of GOP senators were indicating they didn't want to move on this because neither they or their staffs could get their hands around the burgeoning controversy or uncertainty. Here's the thing to know. That won't change in a week. That, more than polarization, puts these Senators in a position where they're high profile political targets and forced to defend the controversy and contend with the unknown. No matter how many amendments there are, the number of uninsured will not go down to 0 - it will be a tens of millions of people losing insurance.

So, if I had to guess, that's a huge negative for the bill.

As far as a realigning election is concerned, which is probably one of the next 3 Presidential elections, healthcare's struggles in the 2010s probably set the winning Democrat with a mandate to solve the lingering issue of both Medicaid, Medicare, and private insurance in a grand bold progressive move. Now that both sides have failed to, within the Reagan Revolution's framework, solve the thorny issue of health care, that President is probably going to come in with this political and economic history in the issue and decide to do a "sweeping" change.

The Republican coalition can't solve healthcare because the rules of the Reagan realignment don't allow them to. Limited government means no more major welfare programs or major entitlement programs. It's always been about stopping the future expansions, and preserving what we have. So, the GOP can't deal with skyrocketing premiums and health care becoming a major political and economic issue. The best they can do at this point is patch the ACA, imperfect as it is, because their political options are capped.

The Democratic Left, as the minority coalition that is about to become the majority coalition, probably has a lot of running room and options to explore as they start teeing up the groundwork for the winning President to implement broad and major health care reform. I would pay attention to what the Democratic think tanks and the left is chattering on about and what they decide is feasible and what isn't. Because their consensus will become the national consensus between 2021 and 2029.

Whatever happens (most likely failure, but cannot rule out passage) - the health care debate will go on and sap the GOP of political energy the longer it remains on the table. It will guarantee about 45-50% of the electorate will continue voting Democratic (including a number of whites, who will conclude that for whatever reason, they are better off in supporting the Democratic Party for their health care needs).

[Virginiá]

You'll still have dead-enders like Cruz and Paul who won't vote for it because it doesn't cut spending [enough].

That's true, but their end goal is still the same. They are just sidetracked by personal ambition and/or unrealistic ideological purity.

To be honest, I don't see how the GOP can get anything meaningful accomplished if things continue as they are. Their POTUS is completely disengaged and Congress is in a vise between the Tea Party fundies who have zero interest in governing and the purple state Republicans who know their voters aren't going to be enthused about an agenda that offers absolutely nothing to anyone who is not in the 0.1%.

Putting aside healthcare and tax 'reform,' what exactly is left for them to do? These two big ticket issues are naturally difficult, but will the GOP's other smaller agenda items be as difficult to unite the caucus on? When it comes to deregulation, for instance, their biggest issue seems to be getting Democratic votes, which may not even be possible due to the position Trump has put them in.

[Technocracy Timmy]

You'll still have dead-enders like Cruz and Paul who won't vote for it because it doesn't cut spending [enough].

That's true, but their end goal is still the same. They are just sidetracked by personal ambition and/or unrealistic ideological purity.

To be honest, I don't see how the GOP can get anything meaningful accomplished if things continue as they are. Their POTUS is completely disengaged and Congress is in a vise between the Tea Party fundies who have zero interest in governing and the purple state Republicans who know their voters aren't going to be enthused about an agenda that offers absolutely nothing to anyone who is not in the 0.1%.

Putting aside healthcare and tax 'reform,' what exactly is left for them to do? These two big ticket issues are naturally difficult, but will the GOP's other smaller agenda items be as difficult to unite the caucus on? When it comes to deregulation, for instance, their biggest issue seems to be getting Democratic votes, which may not even be possible due to the position Trump has put them in.

They can do an infrastructure bill. It's highly likely it'll be a toll roads tax credit to corporate entities giveaway but God knows the public demand for some kind of infrastructure Bill is certainly there.

[Yank2133]

Trump is beyond clueless.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/27/us/health-care-bill-trump-pence.html?_r=0&mtrref=t.co