Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[BudgieForce]

It's all theater. It's going to pass.

RIP America.

MotionToProceed =/= Passing healthcare bill

Even if the senate succeeds in starting debate, its not happening tomorrow.

Do you really they'd be flying McCain back to DC if his vote didn't mean the difference in passing or failing?

Heller and Collins will vote no, everyone else will be bought off, Pence will break the tie, the House will pass as is (even if they get rid of Planned Parenthood defunding), Trump will sign, the insurance market will collapse, millions will lose coverage, tens of thousands will die, and all the Trump supporters who rely on Obamacare will just blame Democrats anyway somehow.

I hope everyone who for whatever reason failed to vote for Hillary on 11/8 is happy. (Who am I kidding - they are.)

Jesus christ, people.

They aren't voting on a bill tomorrow, it is MTP.

We all know that there will be some time for debate and grandstanding before the votes on the bill. You're not informing us of anything.

The bill is going to pass. McConnell wouldn't go through all this theater only to have the repeal effort fail.

Yes he would. The last month should show you McConnell is alot less competent than previously thought.

[Yank2133]

It's all theater. It's going to pass.

RIP America.

MotionToProceed =/= Passing healthcare bill

Even if the senate succeeds in starting debate, its not happening tomorrow.

Do you really they'd be flying McCain back to DC if his vote didn't mean the difference in passing or failing?

Heller and Collins will vote no, everyone else will be bought off, Pence will break the tie, the House will pass as is (even if they get rid of Planned Parenthood defunding), Trump will sign, the insurance market will collapse, millions will lose coverage, tens of thousands will die, and all the Trump supporters who rely on Obamacare will just blame Democrats anyway somehow.

I hope everyone who for whatever reason failed to vote for Hillary on 11/8 is happy. (Who am I kidding - they are.)

Jesus christ, people.

They aren't voting on a bill tomorrow, it is MTP.

We all know that there will be some time for debate and grandstanding before the votes on the bill. You're not informing us of anything.

The bill is going to pass. McConnell wouldn't go through all this theater only to have the repeal effort fail.

McConnell doesn't even know if he has 50, because the caucus doesn't even know what the bill looks like.

[BudgieForce]

It's all theater. It's going to pass.

RIP America.

MotionToProceed =/= Passing healthcare bill

Even if the senate succeeds in starting debate, its not happening tomorrow.

Do you really they'd be flying McCain back to DC if his vote didn't mean the difference in passing or failing?

Heller and Collins will vote no, everyone else will be bought off, Pence will break the tie, the House will pass as is (even if they get rid of Planned Parenthood defunding), Trump will sign, the insurance market will collapse, millions will lose coverage, tens of thousands will die, and all the Trump supporters who rely on Obamacare will just blame Democrats anyway somehow.

I hope everyone who for whatever reason failed to vote for Hillary on 11/8 is happy. (Who am I kidding - they are.)

Jesus christ, people.

They aren't voting on a bill tomorrow, it is MTP.

We all know that there will be some time for debate and grandstanding before the votes on the bill. You're not informing us of anything.

The bill is going to pass. McConnell wouldn't go through all this theater only to have the repeal effort fail.

McConnell doesn't even know if he has 50, because the caucus doesn't even know what the bill looks like.

This is just like with the Tuesday group. There are no GOP moderates. The GOP is a cult who at the end of the day will do as their told.

This is why Democrats have got to stop trying to be bipartisan and instead club the Republican party into submission. Dems are still on the sidelines writing McConnell letters about how they can come together to fix Obamacare while Mitch and Paul are probably laughing their asses off at the letter.

Some would say the same of democrats.

[Comrade Funk]

It's all theater. It's going to pass.

RIP America.

MotionToProceed =/= Passing healthcare bill

Even if the senate succeeds in starting debate, its not happening tomorrow.

Do you really they'd be flying McCain back to DC if his vote didn't mean the difference in passing or failing?

Heller and Collins will vote no, everyone else will be bought off, Pence will break the tie, the House will pass as is (even if they get rid of Planned Parenthood defunding), Trump will sign, the insurance market will collapse, millions will lose coverage, tens of thousands will die, and all the Trump supporters who rely on Obamacare will just blame Democrats anyway somehow.

I hope everyone who for whatever reason failed to vote for Hillary on 11/8 is happy. (Who am I kidding - they are.)

Jesus christ, people.

They aren't voting on a bill tomorrow, it is MTP.

We all know that there will be some time for debate and grandstanding before the votes on the bill. You're not informing us of anything.

The bill is going to pass. McConnell wouldn't go through all this theater only to have the repeal effort fail.

McConnell doesn't even know if he has 50, because the caucus doesn't even know what the bill looks like.

This is just like with the Tuesday group. There are no GOP moderates. The GOP is a cult who at the end of the day will do as their told.

This is why Democrats have got to stop trying to be bipartisan and instead club the Republican party into submission. Dems are still on the sidelines writing McConnell letters about how they can come together to fix Obamacare while Mitch and Paul are probably laughing their asses off at the letter.

Some would say the same of democrats.

And those people are stupid. Republican adulation for the moronic Trump should scare anyone with an IQ over Bubbles the Monkey.

Excuse my liberal, East Coast, Jew, elitist opinion

[Yank2133]

It's all theater. It's going to pass.

RIP America.

MotionToProceed =/= Passing healthcare bill

Even if the senate succeeds in starting debate, its not happening tomorrow.

Do you really they'd be flying McCain back to DC if his vote didn't mean the difference in passing or failing?

Heller and Collins will vote no, everyone else will be bought off, Pence will break the tie, the House will pass as is (even if they get rid of Planned Parenthood defunding), Trump will sign, the insurance market will collapse, millions will lose coverage, tens of thousands will die, and all the Trump supporters who rely on Obamacare will just blame Democrats anyway somehow.

I hope everyone who for whatever reason failed to vote for Hillary on 11/8 is happy. (Who am I kidding - they are.)

Jesus christ, people.

They aren't voting on a bill tomorrow, it is MTP.

We all know that there will be some time for debate and grandstanding before the votes on the bill. You're not informing us of anything.

The bill is going to pass. McConnell wouldn't go through all this theater only to have the repeal effort fail.

McConnell doesn't even know if he has 50, because the caucus doesn't even know what the bill looks like.

This is just like with the Tuesday group. There are no GOP moderates. The GOP is a cult who at the end of the day will do as their told.

This is why Democrats have got to stop trying to be bipartisan and instead club the Republican party into submission. Dems are still on the sidelines writing McConnell letters about how they can come together to fix Obamacare while Mitch and Paul are probably laughing their asses off at the letter.

If this were the case, McConnell would have passed this bill ages ago.

Republicans are craven, but they also care a hell of a lot more about self preservation. And all these potential payoffs and deals won't offset the Medicaid cuts, this 200 billion McConnell is dangling is pennies.

It could pass, but I think some of you are jumping the gun way to prematurely.

[Yank2133]

It's all theater. It's going to pass.

RIP America.

MotionToProceed =/= Passing healthcare bill

Even if the senate succeeds in starting debate, its not happening tomorrow.

Do you really they'd be flying McCain back to DC if his vote didn't mean the difference in passing or failing?

Heller and Collins will vote no, everyone else will be bought off, Pence will break the tie, the House will pass as is (even if they get rid of Planned Parenthood defunding), Trump will sign, the insurance market will collapse, millions will lose coverage, tens of thousands will die, and all the Trump supporters who rely on Obamacare will just blame Democrats anyway somehow.

I hope everyone who for whatever reason failed to vote for Hillary on 11/8 is happy. (Who am I kidding - they are.)

Jesus christ, people.

They aren't voting on a bill tomorrow, it is MTP.

We all know that there will be some time for debate and grandstanding before the votes on the bill. You're not informing us of anything.

The bill is going to pass. McConnell wouldn't go through all this theater only to have the repeal effort fail.

McConnell doesn't even know if he has 50, because the caucus doesn't even know what the bill looks like.

This is just like with the Tuesday group. There are no GOP moderates. The GOP is a cult who at the end of the day will do as their told.

This is why Democrats have got to stop trying to be bipartisan and instead club the Republican party into submission. Dems are still on the sidelines writing McConnell letters about how they can come together to fix Obamacare while Mitch and Paul are probably laughing their asses off at the letter.

If this were the case, McConnell would have passed this bill ages ago.

Republicans are craven, but they also care a hell of a lot more about self preservation. And all these potential payoffs and deals won't offset the Medicaid cuts, this 200 billion McConnell is dangling is pennies.

It could pass, but I think some of you are jumping the gun way to prematurely.

The GOP is very strategic. They are intentionally trying to confuse everyone to rush it through. It's all a shell game. The GOP is on a high where they look at what they've gotten away with for the last 20 years and the fact they control 34 state legislatures, and all 3 branches of government and they simply think they can pass this, then just blatantly lie about it to the public, and they'll just get away with like they got away with lying about the Iraq War and basically ruining Obama's presidency.

If youve ever wondered what it would be like to have Enron run the country...this is it. These are craven sociopaths who think to themselves: ''Eh...my constituency are dumb as hell, I'll just lie to them and get away with it yet again. Just bring up Pelosi or tell em the Dems will take your guns''

This entire episode has destroyed the narrative of the GOP being strategic. This isn't some machiavellian scheme, McConnell and co. are throwing sh**t to the wall and seeing what sticks, because every other avenue they have tried to get to 50 votes has failed.

[The Other Castro]

OK, so let's assume that McConnell put in this effort to get McCain back because he knows he is only one vote down on the MTP. It's possible that they're more than one vote down, and that they want McCain back just in case, but for safety let's say this makes the MTP vote 50-50. We've already established that the 2015 repeal bill cannot pass as it would have at least Murkowski, Collins, and Capito in opposition. The BCRA 2.0 had Collins, Paul, Moran, and Lee against. Collins is probably a NO on any bill that could otherwise get 49 GOP votes, and Paul is probably a NO on most things besides full repeal. The middle ground to the other 50 GOP senators to agree on something may not even exist. The prospects were already slim before the parliamentarian objected to the Planned Parenthood and abortion funding sections, which won't please Conservatives if those aren't in the final bill. If something does pass, which still appears very unlikely, it'll be something we have not yet seen.

All of McConnell's recent moves have just been to achieve the start of debate on a healthcare bill. He has been keeping this process deliberately vague in order to get the senators to open debate, but what happens when they actually have to vote on passage? McConnell hopes that this next stage will put increased pressure on them, but that's pretty much his only card. The reason he muddied the waters about which bill they would be voting to start debate on is no single bill that he could form could get 50 votes in the first place. For this procedure, it's not some game of 3D chess by Senate Republicans trying to pass a bill. It's McConnell screwing with his own caucus in the hopes that something, anything happens. I suggest people take a breath while acknowledging that an important step may be completed tomorrow, but there are many more steps to come.

[Yank2133]

It's all theater. It's going to pass.

RIP America.

MotionToProceed =/= Passing healthcare bill

Even if the senate succeeds in starting debate, its not happening tomorrow.

Do you really they'd be flying McCain back to DC if his vote didn't mean the difference in passing or failing?

Heller and Collins will vote no, everyone else will be bought off, Pence will break the tie, the House will pass as is (even if they get rid of Planned Parenthood defunding), Trump will sign, the insurance market will collapse, millions will lose coverage, tens of thousands will die, and all the Trump supporters who rely on Obamacare will just blame Democrats anyway somehow.

I hope everyone who for whatever reason failed to vote for Hillary on 11/8 is happy. (Who am I kidding - they are.)

Jesus christ, people.

They aren't voting on a bill tomorrow, it is MTP.

We all know that there will be some time for debate and grandstanding before the votes on the bill. You're not informing us of anything.

The bill is going to pass. McConnell wouldn't go through all this theater only to have the repeal effort fail.

McConnell doesn't even know if he has 50, because the caucus doesn't even know what the bill looks like.

This is just like with the Tuesday group. There are no GOP moderates. The GOP is a cult who at the end of the day will do as their told.

This is why Democrats have got to stop trying to be bipartisan and instead club the Republican party into submission. Dems are still on the sidelines writing McConnell letters about how they can come together to fix Obamacare while Mitch and Paul are probably laughing their asses off at the letter.

If this were the case, McConnell would have passed this bill ages ago.

Republicans are craven, but they also care a hell of a lot more about self preservation. And all these potential payoffs and deals won't offset the Medicaid cuts, this 200 billion McConnell is dangling is pennies.

It could pass, but I think some of you are jumping the gun way to prematurely.

The GOP is very strategic. They are intentionally trying to confuse everyone to rush it through. It's all a shell game. The GOP is on a high where they look at what they've gotten away with for the last 20 years and the fact they control 34 state legislatures, and all 3 branches of government and they simply think they can pass this, then just blatantly lie about it to the public, and they'll just get away with like they got away with lying about the Iraq War and basically ruining Obama's presidency.

If youve ever wondered what it would be like to have Enron run the country...this is it. These are craven sociopaths who think to themselves: ''Eh...my constituency are dumb as hell, I'll just lie to them and get away with it yet again. Just bring up Pelosi or tell em the Dems will take your guns''

This entire episode has destroyed the narrative of the GOP being strategic. This isn't some machiavellian scheme, McConnell and co. are throwing sh**t to the wall and seeing what sticks, because every other avenue they have tried to get to 50 votes has failed.

One of McConnell's well known strategies is to keep forcing votes until it pressures the no's to change. What he's doing is what he's always done to reign in on people who might have doubts. Anyway this is his plan:

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The problem is the $100B is pennies and the moderates know this.

[Mr. Morden]

Mondale, why do you keep flipping back and forth on this?:

By the way, I think Mondale deserves everyone he was calling naïve for doubting the bill's passage an apology.

(I'm not actually serious about this)

Eh....I was wrong...you guys were right. Congrats

One day it's sure to pass, then no, I guess not, then oh wait, I guess it is....

[Yank2133]

The problem is the $100B is pennies and the moderates know this.

Your wrongly assuming the moderates care. Portman, Capito, Murkowski will all fold eventually. They have until September 17th to use reconciliation. Trump and the sociopathic GOP will just threaten them day after day until the bill is passed while McConnell will just keep holding vote after vote till he chips away until he gets a yes. Mitch has already been caught lying to the Senators about the effects of the bill and they all eventually got on board in the end anyway.

These arent principled or intelligent people. They're all just cucks bought and paid for by donors who think Koch and Co. can bail me out come election time.

Of course they care, because the money in the long-run won't cover up for the cuts and they know this.

[Mr. Morden]

Mondale, why do you keep flipping back and forth on this?:

By the way, I think Mondale deserves everyone he was calling naïve for doubting the bill's passage an apology.

(I'm not actually serious about this)

Eh....I was wrong...you guys were right. Congrats

One day it's sure to pass, then no, I guess not, then oh wait, I guess it is....

Yawn...I said it once and that was before I knew the McTurtle can just change the rules or over rule the parliamentarian.

And so if the motion to proceed is voted down tomorrow, will that convince you that maybe, just maybe, this isn't going to pass?  Or will you still be sure that they'll come back with something else next week?  I'm just wondering what kind of evidence is sufficient that it's not a sure thing?

[The Other Castro]

Also, it's entirely possible that McCain is just ready to come back, and it doesn't necessarily directly indicate McConnell's whip count. He presumably likes his job, and one would assume that he would try to make it back as soon as he were able. McCain isn't the type that is forced into doing things. I think a passing MTP vote has a greater chance now, but my prediction is that a MTP vote still fails.

[7,052,770]

And so if the motion to proceed is voted down tomorrow, will that convince you that maybe, just maybe, this isn't going to pass?  Or will you still be sure that they'll come back with something else next week?  I'm just wondering what kind of evidence is sufficient that it's not a sure thing?

If the MTP fails and McConnell votes yes, I'll calm down. If it fails and he votes no, he'll just try it again next week or next month or whenever and let everyone continue to live in limbo.

[Yank2133]

Also, it's entirely possible that McCain is just ready to come back, and it doesn't necessarily directly indicate McConnell's whip count. He presumably likes his job, and one would assume that he would try to make it back as soon as he were able. McCain isn't the type that is forced into doing things. I think a passing MTP vote has a greater chance now, but my prediction is that a MTP vote still fails.

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Anyway, I still think McCain votes yes on this. But I do wonder about Murkowski, the bill hasn't changed at all and she has no reason to fear McConnell, who left her out to dry in 2010 after she lost the primary.

[BudgieForce]

Also, it's entirely possible that McCain is just ready to come back, and it doesn't necessarily directly indicate McConnell's whip count. He presumably likes his job, and one would assume that he would try to make it back as soon as he were able. McCain isn't the type that is forced into doing things. I think a passing MTP vote has a greater chance now, but my prediction is that a MTP vote still fails.

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Anyway, I still think McCain votes yes on this. But I do wonder about Murkowski, the bill hasn't changed at all and she has no reason to fear McConnell, who left her out to dry in 2010 after she lost the primary.

McConnell went a step further in 2010. He not only endorsed Miller and told Murkowski to give up, he also stripped her of her position as Vice-Chair right after her loss. If I were Murkowski, I would hold a grudge.

[Yank2133]

Also, it's entirely possible that McCain is just ready to come back, and it doesn't necessarily directly indicate McConnell's whip count. He presumably likes his job, and one would assume that he would try to make it back as soon as he were able. McCain isn't the type that is forced into doing things. I think a passing MTP vote has a greater chance now, but my prediction is that a MTP vote still fails.

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Anyway, I still think McCain votes yes on this. But I do wonder about Murkowski, the bill hasn't changed at all and she has no reason to fear McConnell, who left her out to dry in 2010 after she lost the primary.

McConnell went a step further in 2010. He not only endorsed Miller and told Murkowski to give up, he also stripped her of her position as Vice-Chair right after her loss. If I were Murkowski, I would hold a grudge.

I don't expect her to hold a grudge, but she should feel as if she doesn't owe McConnell anything.

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Yeah, I just don't see it unless something changes dramatically in the next 10-15 hours or so. Collins seems to be hell-bent against either bill. Rand is only going to vote for straight repeal, which I doubt is on the table, and Moran seems to be in the same boat as Rand. That is three "nos" right there and  if that happens I can see everyone else jumping ship.

The GOP is stubborn and don't seem to have the brains to know when to fold, but the math doesn't seem to be there.

[Mr. Morden]

Mondale, why do you keep flipping back and forth on this?:

By the way, I think Mondale deserves everyone he was calling naïve for doubting the bill's passage an apology.

(I'm not actually serious about this)

Eh....I was wrong...you guys were right. Congrats

One day it's sure to pass, then no, I guess not, then oh wait, I guess it is....

Yawn...I said it once and that was before I knew the McTurtle can just change the rules or over rule the parliamentarian.

And so if the motion to proceed is voted down tomorrow, will that convince you that maybe, just maybe, this isn't going to pass?  Or will you still be sure that they'll come back with something else next week?  I'm just wondering what kind of evidence is sufficient that it's not a sure thing?

Until the date of reconciliation has run out then this thing isnt dead.

But it can be not dead yet also not a sure thing to pass.  You're talking as if it's a sure thing to pass.  And so I'm wondering if there's any conceivable piece of evidence that would cause you to downgrade its chances of passage before the clock runs out on reconciliation?

[Higgins]

This sucks. They're gonna win.

[The Mikado]

Even if MTP passes tomorrow (which is likely, but not guaranteed), this bill isn't out of the woods until it's through the Senate. People are being way too sure this is going to pass, just like the last two times it was sure to pass.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The senate convenes at noon tomorrow, but it's unclear if the vote will happen immediately or not.

[Middle-aged Europe]

John Boehner says the Republicans will never repeal and replace Obamacare:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/boehner-predicts-republicans-will-never-repeal-and-replace-obamacare/2017/07/24/e4190718-70d9-11e7-8f39-eeb7d3a2d304_story.html?utm_term=.5b2fe65b6e29

[The Other Castro]

Trumps position now back to: give me something, literally anything to sign.

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
ObamaCare is torturing the American People.The Democrats have fooled the people long enough. Repeal or Repeal & Replace! I have pen in hand.

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/889796918615920640

[Progressive]

What time is the vote expected today for the MTP. Then, when doe debates/speeches start? Then, when is the actual vote for this filth bill?

[SoLongAtlas]

McCain coming back to vote on the MTP http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/24/politics/john-mccain-returns-health-care-vote

[The Other Castro]

What time is the vote expected today for the MTP. Then, when doe debates/speeches start? Then, when is the actual vote for this filth bill?

I think the MTP vote is at 2:15.