Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[The Other Castro]

Odds of passage are still definitely below 50%, probably closer to 20%.

[HisGrace]

Even 20% is a bit generous.

[Matty]

Rand Paul is all bark, not bite

I think he folds like a cheap suit.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Meadows said house will have pass the bill if the senate does so this is it

[The Other Castro]

Meadows said house will have pass the bill if the senate does so this is it

Meadows may be able to speak for some House members, but not many of the critical ones, such as the Republicans from New York and California who have their states' health care funding cut massively in this bill.

[Pericles]

Meadows said house will have pass the bill if the senate does so this is it

Meadows may be able to speak for some House members, but not many of the critical ones, such as the Republicans from New York and California who have their states' health care funding cut massively in this bill.

If Senate moderates fold then House moderates-who have already been proved to be more malleable-will easily flip.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

While I don't expect McCain to ultimately vote against Lindsey Graham, he's clearly trying to make his decision look agonizing: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/18/john-mccain-obamacare-repeal-vote-242853

[The Mikado]

It really does all come down to Murkowski in the end here. I don't think this bill passes. It definitely could pass, but the GOP has done none of the groundwork necessary for it to actually pass.

[tallguy23]

This is way stressful. My parents have benefited from ACA and I'm worried about their healthcare future.

[BlueSwan]

Paul and Collins are very likely no's, so the GOP needs both Murkowski and McCain. 20% sounds about right.

[Badger]

Is even Collins a definite yes at this point?

[emailking]

Odds of passage are still definitely below 50%, probably closer to 20%.

I don't see how you can have "definite" odds on a one time non-repeatable event. They're just a measure of your confidence level. Yours is 20, his is 50.

[The Other Castro]

Odds of passage are still definitely below 50%, probably closer to 20%.

I don't see how you can have "definite" odds on a one time non-repeatable event. They're just a measure of your confidence level. Yours is 20, his is 50.

Oh that's just the kind of way of speaking I use sometimes. I meant a more accurate reading of the current odds of passage in my opinion would place the likelihood at below 20%.

[Yank2133]

Rand Paul is all bark, not bite

I think he folds like a cheap suit.

I am not sure about that.

He voted for skinny repeal because he could theoretically argue that it was just a place holder. Graham -Cassidy is not all that different from the BCRA and Paul voted no on that.

[7,052,770]

Does Rand Paul really want to go down in history as the Man Who Saved Obamacare?

The only hope is for Chuck and Nancy to offer something to Trump to make him veto this.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Does Rand Paul really want to go down in history as the Man Who Saved Obamacare?

The only hope is for Chuck and Nancy to offer something to Trump to make him veto this.

Paul's been clear that if it's a choice between "ObamaCare Lite" (what he sees Cassidy-Graham as) or making no changes to ObamaCare at all, he prefers making no changes at all. If he votes Yes on Cassidy-Graham, it would be because of some last-minute change to the bill.

[Person Man]

The only way this passes is that they were aleays going to pass it....and always could.

[The Other Castro]

Alaska Gov Walker came out against it (watch Murkowski), and Collins is sounding more and more like a solid No (though not publicly a definitive No).

[Hindsight was 2020]

Do these idiots get that passing this puts the ball in Bernie's court? This will lead to single payer not stop it

[The Other Castro]

Murkowski sounds sympathetic to Gov Walker (Alaska), who is opposed to G-C.

Manu Raju @mkraju
"It's one thing for us in DC to figure out formulas but as a governor, he's the one who implements it," Murkowski to @tedbarrettcnn

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/910219326883553288

[Frodo]

House Speaker Paul Ryan and Donald Trump have rejected any bipartisan fix to Obamacare:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/19/obamacare-stabilization-bill-status-242875

[Matty]

Graham just said in an interview he thinks it has 50 votes.

[Yank2133]

Graham just said in an interview he thinks it has 50 votes.

No it doesn't.

If he did, McConnell wouldn't have been coy about bringing it up to vote.

[BudgieForce]

Graham just said in an interview he thinks it has 50 votes.

He also said he'd have a hard time seeing democrats vote no on the bill, so I'm not sure hes got a good read of the situation. Paul is an apparent no, Collins is signaling that shes a no. Murkowski seems to be heading towards no from her comments today about implementing the changes. McCain made a statement which made it seem like hes not happy with the process. I think republicans have 48 yes votes, 2 undecided, and 2 no votes(I doubt Paul votes against it, but hes saying he will so who knows)

[The Other Castro]

Graham does not have 50 votes. While a strange course of events may lead us to 50 votes, he does not have 50 votes currently. They shouldn't have too much trouble getting everyone with the exception of Collins, Murkowski, McCain and Paul. I am of the belief that Paul will not have a problem being one of the three that kills this, if it is just the three of them (if McCain goes Yes).