Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[The Other Castro]

Breaking now:



https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/costestimate/americanhealthcareact.pdf

[The Other Castro]

Summary:

# of more people uninsured would be:
14 million by 2018
21 million by 2020
24 million by 2026

Total # uninsured in 2026 would be 52 million.

But, Medicaid slashes would reduce the deficit over 10 years by $337 Billion.

[The Other Castro]

Summary:

# of more people uninsured would be:
14 million by 2018
21 million by 2020
24 million by 2026

Total # uninsured in 2026 would be 52 Million.

But, Medicaid slashes would reduce the deficit over 10 years by $337 Billion.

Double the uninsured to fully 1/6 of Americans...reduce the deficit by a small amount. 

In comparison, the # of uninsured under current law in 2026 would be 28 million.

[The Other Castro]

Meh...this bill is DOA anyway

Also...Dean Heller - NV said he's not voting for it and even said "the ACA is not all bad"

I'll believe Heller's against this when I see him vote against it on the senate floor, and not before. He voted for 100% of Trump's cabinet. Doesn't look very moderate/pragmatic/sensible.

This is more than a Cabinet confirmation. People's lives are at stake.

[The Other Castro]

Early Dem reactions:

Chris Murphy @ChrisMurphyCT
#CBO says 14m immediately lose insurance, rising to 26m. Premiums go up for millions more. My god. Stop this now, @SpeakerRyan.

Our Revolution @OurRevolution
Perspective: If you were to create a state out of the people who would lose coverage under GOP plan, it would be 3rd largest state in US.

[The Other Castro]

Schumer and Ryan have very different responses:

Schumer:


Ryan:

[The Other Castro]

The deficit projection makes me a bit nervous.  I think Republicans just might rally behind it now, despite its problems.

This bill may just make potential FFs out of unlikely Senators:

Dave Weigel‏ @daveweigel  1m1 minute ago
Sen. Cassidy not impressed by cost savings seen by CBO: "Society is going to pay for health care whether it's through insurance or not."

[The Other Castro]

Wow, the White House's own analysis projects 26 million more uninsured by 2026, even greater than that of the CBO score.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/obamacare-uninsured-white-house-236019

[The Other Castro]

Oh look, right on cue:

"They should abolish the Congressional Budget Office. It is corrupt. It is dishonest."
-Newt Gingrich

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/323811-gingrich-corrupt-cbo-should-be-abolished

[The Other Castro]

There was nothing "fine" about 40-50 million people being uninsured. People that say otherwise don't understand what they are talking about.

[The Other Castro]

By giving the GOP the Senate, presidency, and House, the American electorate voted for a repeal and replacement of Obamacare. Ryan's bill ain't it.

You just said the opposite of the truth. The American people voted to keep Obamacare by a 3-million-vote margin.

They should have moved to the right place like me if they cared so much.

Honestly the DNC should put all their funding into the relocation of two million Californian Democrats to Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and North Carolina.

[The Other Castro]

Update to this: A new CBO Report is coming.

Kristina L. Peterson @kristinapet
Sessions says he expects a new CBO score on the altered health bill Wednesday evening.

[The Other Castro]

Update: There will be a new CBO report released tonight that includes the recent changes.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/new-cbo-score-on-changes-to-gop-healthcare-bill-expected-wednesday-night/article/2618078

[The Other Castro]

MJ Lee‏ @mj_lee
House leadership not expecting new CBO score tonight. It's expected before House vote on the health care bill.

I guess it's not coming tonight after all.

[The Other Castro]

Btw, any CBO report that comes out tomorrow will not be up to date if House Republicans add those last minute changes as concessions to the Freedom Caucus. So, they will likely be voting on a bill without a CBO score.

[The Other Castro]

NEW CBO Report on revised AHCA:

Coverage and Premiums are nearly unchanged, deficit savings reduced from $337 Billion to $150 Billion.

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/costestimate/hr1628.pdf

[The Other Castro]

"CBO to release estimate for House-passed version of the AHCA early in the week of May 22"

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52715

[The Other Castro]

New report will come May 24.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52740

[The Other Castro]

The report is about to come out pretty soon, so as a reminder, the last version of the AHCA:

-Reduced the deficit over 10 years by $150 billion
-Increased the number of uninsured over 10 years by 24 million

There are concerns among House GOP that the most recent changes may have wiped out the deficit savings. If it is below $2 billion I believe, they may have to vote on the House bill again because it wouldn't meet the standards for reconciliation (simple majority in Senate instead of 60 votes). It is likely that we will see both lower deficit reduction numbers and lower numbers of uninsured for this new score, in comparison to the previous score. Maybe something like $50 billion reduction and 20 million more uninsured.

[The Other Castro]

Btw I'm guessing the score will come out around 5 or so.

[The Other Castro]

23 million more uninsured, $113 billion deficit reduction over 10 years.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52752

[The Other Castro]

CBO:
CBO aims to release estimate for Senate health care plan early next week.

https://twitter.com/uscbo/status/877927625460596736

[The Other Castro]

It'll be out this afternoon, probably around 5 or so.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52850

[The Other Castro]

Jennifer Epstein @jeneps
Sen. Cassidy on the CBO score's effect on his vote, on CNN: "It certainly makes me more concerned. It makes me want to explore this more."

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/879439458562658304

[The Other Castro]

Rand Paul says he will vote NO on the motion to proceed for this bill.

Mike Lee also says he will not vote to proceed on the bill.

Lindsey Graham says McConnell will lose his vote if he starts buying skeptical Senators off (using the increased deficit reduction savings).

This very well might end on Wednesday.