Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[HisGrace]

Trump has officially given up:

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Beautiful -as soon as a law is passed by this Congress (and signed by this President) stabilizing Obamacare and sets it on a path toward it truly 'bending the cost curve', then we will know this law has gained a status on par with Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.   

It could be "upgraded" to something that provides genuine universal coverage. I don't know why we didn't just do a voucher system. Democrats would like it better since it actually provides universal coverage, I and a lot of Republicans would like it better since it's more market driven, and it avoids a lot of the logistical problems with the exchanges. It could have easily passed with bi-partisan support either in 08 or today.

[HisGrace]

I saw Rand Paul hammering the new plan on Fox today. I'm assuming at least Collins and Murkowski are still not on board too. That's not a majority.

[HisGrace]

Even 20% is a bit generous.

[HisGrace]

One thing that strikes me as odd is this  - they lost last time essentially because McCain was upset with the lack of bipartisanship and decided to f**k them. So their solution this time is to publicly give the middle finger to bipartisanship to put pressure on people? Like, it doesn't seem like the ideal design for that end.

I almost wonder whether this isn't just for show with Senate Republicans feeling like they needed to give the appearance of an Obamacare repeal fight right before the deadline arrived.  

That's one thing that's possible. It's either some way of saying "we tried" or they could have passed it all along but are trying to make themselves appear more capable or the opposition more powerful than they are in order to keep the traditionalists and populists happy.

If this thing does pass, this might give us  a prelude to what the overturn of Roe v. Wade would look like. That is, the Feds just punted on a major issue and it would then be up to the 50 states each to come up with a solution.

That's what it would look like. Striking down Roe v. Wade would just enable states to do what they wanted with abortion, not make it illegal.

[HisGrace]

According to a GOP Senate aide, here are some changes a new draft of the G-C bill might include for their "Alaska Purchase" in order to swing Murkowski. Basically, Alaska gets to keep Obamacare.

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http://ijr.com/2017/09/979983-republicans-attempt-buy-murkowskis-vote-new-draft-health-care-bill/

You know your bill's not very popular when the only way you can try and get people to vote for it is to say it won't apply to their state. It's a little funny.

[HisGrace]

According to a GOP Senate aide, here are some changes a new draft of the G-C bill might include for their "Alaska Purchase" in order to swing Murkowski. Basically, Alaska gets to keep Obamacare.

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http://ijr.com/2017/09/979983-republicans-attempt-buy-murkowskis-vote-new-draft-health-care-bill/

You know your bill's not very popular when the only way you can try and get people to vote for it is to say it won't apply to their state. It's a little funny.

Winning strategy: make a carve out for every state, pass the bill, and declare victory.

Technically even this wouldn't be "victory" since it's just punting Obamacare to the states for the most part. That would be even less so.

[HisGrace]

Murkowski turned down a buy-out before. I have a feeling she might do it again.

I'm also expecting her to vote no and the bill to fail.

[HisGrace]

What do we expect from people who aren't talking much about the bill? I would expect them to be yeses, but it could be that they're no's and don't want to take the heat for it, sort of the situation with McCain last time.

So the whip count right now appears to be this:

Definite No: 50
All Dems, Collins, Paul
Lean No: 1
McCain
Toss-Up: 2
Murkowski
Capito
Probably yes but could surprise: 2
Ernst (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2017/09/21/joni-ernst-leaning-yes-graham-cassidy-health-care-bill/686388001/)
Portman
Definite Yes (for now): 45
All other Repubs

Obviously not a good situation for McConnell.

I would move McCain to toss-up and Murkowski to lean no.

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Don't say Trump doesn't have any ideas, though. You "don't get it" if you do.

[HisGrace]

So does this mean Murkowski is a no as well?

With Collins/Paul/McCain already being no's it doesn't really matter, although it wouldn't surprise me to see more moderate R's switch.

[HisGrace]

Bill Cassidy says they'll be replacing GC with yet another bill tomorrow: https://twitter.com/abcpolitics/status/911958582811295744

Whatever the new bill is, it's not passing. Murkowski and Collins will oppose it on ideological grounds (and what does it say about the GOP that I can tell any healthcare bill they propose will be cruel before it's even unrelieved?), as will McCain on procedural grounds.

This will probably be even more of a disaster than any of the previous attempts considering they basically pulled an all-nighter over the weekend to write a massive piece of legislation like it was a college paper.

[HisGrace]

The GOP fails again.
Don't you guys just love all the winning ? (You are suppose to be tired of all the winning by now.)

[HisGrace]

Okay, so I guess we'll get a new trainwreck of a bill at the beginning of 2018, which will probably fail once again to get enough votes, right?

#MakeAmericaIncompetentAgain

Correct. Another year full of Trump losing to look forward to.