Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[Person Man]

So, this is 4% less "mean" than the House's Bill? Takes us from 9% UI rate to a 16% instead of a 16.3% UI rate? These bills pretty much take us to where we were in 2009. I guess without Obamacare, we would be at like 20% by now...so we probably delayed the End Of Insurance by 20 years?

[Person Man]

Just lol:

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...then promptly went golfing.

Feels good, man.

[Person Man]

seems like it is coming apart.

several senators now complaining about the tax cuts for the rich.

how is the freedom caucus going to swallow that?

Which senators? What's the twitter saying?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/key-republicans-want-to-scrap-health-bill-s-tax-cuts-for-wealthy

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Somehow it just isn't sexy to just cash in social programs.

[Person Man]

trump talked with collins and paul and both of them think he is on their side now...


 Trump to warring GOP senators: I'm on your side
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/28/trump-health-care-paul-collins-240065

My guess is they'll fold soon. Rand Paul is a complete phony and Collins could care less.

I dont think so. For all the bullsh**t she spews, Collins wont vote for something that cuts planned parenthood or Medicaid.

Maine never expanded Medicaid anyway. Collins is a fraud who voted to confirm Gorsuch despite his obviously terrible views on women. Collins could care less about PP or womens health. Dont be surprised if Murkowski folds too. None of these people have ever had to have their character put to the test during their time in Congress and the GOP has no room for dissident, everyone falls in line or they get destroyed.

The GOP is the heavens gate of political parties. They're basically a kamikaze suicide cult barging full steam ahead at destroying the government and taking everyone, including themselves, with it. The average Republican politician today is in a never ending cycle of being angry and stupid and lashing out because of it.

Maine has a Medicaid ballot initiative on the ballot next year and it is likely to pass. Collins isn't voting for this.

Both her and Heller are firm no's IMO, unless McConnell drastically changes the bill. The real question mark is Murkowski. Can McConnell buy her off with some giveaways to Alaska or is that not enough? We will soon find out.

Heller is at Trump's $10 million fundraiser tonight. He'll fold soon too.

No, he won't.

He is much more fearful of the Governor (who hates the bill), then he is of Trump.

So Trump's window is either Pence or Democrats? It could look really bad for Republicans and good for Trump if they lost a half dozen senators and 30 HFC congressmen but passed something with at least a dozen Democrats in the senate alone.

[Person Man]

You guys are far too rosy and idealistic. The GOP is going to pass this one way or another. Someone will sit out the vote purely for re-election reasons. Far right wingers are going to get bullied into supporting it since GOP congress peoples melt at strong arm tactics. When Trump starts threatening them and handing out their phone numbers on Twitter, they will all fold like they always do. GOP just cant resist a charming strongman and the opportunity to destroy government programs.

They will probably just use Pence to pass it. That's pretty much what happened in the house. 217-215 or something? I can see AHCA going 217-216 and 51-50.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/TeddyDavisCNN/status/880746714768056320

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That's fing irresponsible on ungodly levels

Can they even just pass that through as a budget cut or will they need to abide or nuke the legislative fillibuster?

And if they do just repeal it, wouldn't that just damage industry confidence so badly that many insurers might just stop offering non-group plans?

[Person Man]

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Personally, I am open to a bipartisan approach. It probably won't be anything I would like in the end, though.

[Person Man]

So the best they can do is get this in front of Pence. But first they must get by SMC, Portman, Murkowski, and Heller.

[Person Man]

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/341197-wva-republican-if-i-have-to-be-that-one-person-to-kill-healthcare-bill-i-will

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Mondale, you there?

If Mondale is right, I think we found our Cuck of the Year.

[Person Man]

If none of them want the blame, the moderate republicans could release a joint statement all stating their opposition.

If it ends of passing, and they are blamed for being cucked, that either means they get Blanched or that the state party does if they aren't up.

[Person Man]

How would pork look?

[Person Man]

Do you think there was actually any doubt?

[Person Man]

If the CBO is bad, Heller and Capito will jump off and kill the bill. If its alot better than the last one, it'll probably pass.

What do you think the reference is?

[Person Man]

At this rate, the Democrats will just make the Senate into a 100 more House seats. It would be political malpractice otherwise...at least they should run on Medicaid and Medicare expansion.

[Person Man]

Odds of passage feels closer to 25% now, which is too high for comfort but could be worse.

I'd go with that. What was it before?

[Person Man]

The other thing to remember, a decade ago, we didn't have the Great Crash. That really put a crimp on people's spending and I think Medicaid rolls and so on have risen as a consequence. The safety net has become more valuable, not less valuable, over time, which is a huge reason the Medicaid expansion is a political sticking point.

I think that's the underlying subtext to why this is so hard. The Great Crash has made neoliberal healthcare planning a very dicey idea.

Compare and contrast to welfare reform in the booming 1990s.

I think the era of Neoliberal Healthcare Delivery is over or we are just heading to a new age of mass poverty that makes the political economy  that much less stable.

[Person Man]

Hope you enjoy paying $10k a month for insurance lol

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These people are f**king monsters

That's not insurance.

[Person Man]

In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if, a year from now, a large percentage of the electorate won't even be able to correctly answer a poll question on whether Obamacare has been repealed or not.

Yeah, weren't there polls back in like 2014 saying that a majority (or significant chunk) of Republicans thought Obamacare had already been repealed?

Well 30% of the country thought Obama was a Muslim terrorist, and 30% of the country now thinks that Russians changed the results of the election.

Literally changed votes, or changed the outcome of the election? The CIA agrees with the latter.

(I know this is old, but...)

The CIA also thought there were WMDs in Iraq.

I think 60% believe Russia changed the outcome (between 10-25% don't care or not that much) and 30% believe the votes were actually  changed.

[Person Man]

Just lol:

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...then promptly went golfing.

Feels good, man.

The GOP:

[Person Man]

The bill is dead until someone shows me 50 votes on a motion to proceed.

Or a new plan. Maybe there is new life for something less ambitious?

[Person Man]

Actually it just came out:

"Obamacare Repeal Reconciliation Act of 2017"
-32 million more uninsured over 10 years
-Premiums doubled over 10 years

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52939

Does this include the Cruz amendment?

This is if you repealed everything.

[Person Man]

Half is the country's population would live in a place with no individual insurers by 2020.

They'd better go get jobs, then!

Getting a job with a decent insurance plan is not as simple as you might think, especially in a no employer mandate environment (which ObamaCare repeal would create). In reality, at least 75% of that 32 million would literally die on the street.

It would basically just create an environment of mass poverty?

[Person Man]

It would create an environment where insurance companies can deny or outprice whoever they like, and thus lead to mass death from lack of access to health care and insurance.

How exactly is someone dying on the street of benefit to an insurance company?

They prefer to cover as few sick people as possible.

You said 75%. Sounds like a pretty loose definition of sick to me.

Anyone who is reasonably certain to see a doctor for non-preventative care more than a couple a times a year.


Ultimate consequence:
If you don't get insurance through work or are not expected to work, you will not have insurance.

This either ends in Single Payer or just not having a healthcare system.

If this gets proceded, this is the hill for Democrats to die on. I would demand a hearing on every procedure or boycott the process and deny quorum.

[Person Man]

It would create an environment where insurance companies can deny or outprice whoever they like, and thus lead to mass death from lack of access to health care and insurance.

How exactly is someone dying on the street of benefit to an insurance company?

They prefer to cover as few sick people as possible.

You said 75%. Sounds like a pretty loose definition of sick to me.

Anyone who is reasonably certain to see a doctor for non-preventative care more than a couple a times a year.


Ultimate consequence:
If you don't get insurance through work or are not expected to work, you will not have insurance.

This either ends in Single Payer or just not having a healthcare system.

If this gets proceded, this is the hill for Democrats to die on. I would demand a hearing on every procedure or boycott the process and deny quorum.

Quorum is reached as long as a majority of senators are present. So if democrats don't show up, republicans can just shrug and vote anyways, since dems are in the miniority.

They can do what they were going to do about Gorsucg, right?

[Person Man]

It would create an environment where insurance companies can deny or outprice whoever they like, and thus lead to mass death from lack of access to health care and insurance.

How exactly is someone dying on the street of benefit to an insurance company?

They prefer to cover as few sick people as possible.

You said 75%. Sounds like a pretty loose definition of sick to me.

Anyone who is reasonably certain to see a doctor for non-preventative care more than a couple a times a year.


Ultimate consequence:
If you don't get insurance through work or are not expected to work, you will not have insurance.

This either ends in Single Payer or just not having a healthcare system.

If this gets proceded, this is the hill for Democrats to die on. I would demand a hearing on every procedure or boycott the process and deny quorum.

Quorum is reached as long as a majority of senators are present. So if democrats don't show up, republicans can just shrug and vote anyways, since dems are in the miniority.

They can do what they were going to do about Gorsucg, right?

Not sure what you're talking about. As long as they don't go outside the bounds of reconciliation, republicans can't be stopped by the legislative filibuster. As we saw with a couple of the cabinet nominations, not showing up to committee votes doesn't stop them from happening.

but you can hold hearings on every motion...