Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[GeorgiaModerate]

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800%!!!!!

To be pedantic, the increase is 700%.  (To be clear: I'm not defending in the slightest this abomination of a bill.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

TrumpCare may very well be dead:

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Killed by a pre-existing condition.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Kaiser Foundation poll on ACA and AHCA: http://kff.org/health-reform/report/kaiser-health-tracking-poll-may-2017-the-ahcas-proposed-changes-to-health-care/

AHCA (overall 31/55):

12 Very favorable
19 Somewhat favorable
15 Somewhat unfavorable
40 Very unfavorable

ACA (49/42):

29 Very favorable
20 Somewhat favorable
13 Somewhat unfavorable
29 Very unfavorable

[GeorgiaModerate]

NPR/Marist poll has the Senate bill at 17/55 approve/disapprove: http://www.npr.org/2017/06/28/534612954/just-17-percent-of-americans-approve-of-republican-senate-health-care-bill

[GeorgiaModerate]

"And in today's news, the Trump administration came out for single payer, stunning news observers. House and Senate Republicans swiftly fell in line, however, and extolled the virtues of single payer as the rabid Republican base suddenly discovered the virtues of single payer."

This is...not all that implausible.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good article by the always insightful Stuart Rothenberg on the tough spot the GOP is in: https://www.insideelections.com/news/article/for-gop-health-care-bill-looks-riskier-by-the-day

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Brutal numbers for BCRA in the new Selzer poll of Iowa for the Des Moines Register, taken July 9-13 with a sample of 800 adults (MOE 3.5%).

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/kathie-obradovich/2017/07/16/obradovich-iowa-poll-shows-gop-corner-health-care/479189001/

Do you mostly support or mostly oppose the direction Congressional Republicans are heading in addressing health care legislation?

Mostly support: 29%
Mostly oppose: 58%
Not sure: 13%

By party:

R: 57/25/18
D: 5/87/7
I: 25/63/12

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sorry for posting something somewhat off topic, but why exactly is this called the "Better Care Act"?

For those who can afford or have good insurance the USA can provide high quality care.

What actions are included in this bill to to increase the quality of care?  (serious question, not being sarcastic)

Or is this just a misnomer?

Because calling it that makes it, by definition, better.  Or that's the theory, I guess.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

MIND BLOWN:

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Well, there you have it.  Trump trucked it all up.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Breaking: Shelley Moore Capito comes out against repeal without replace: https://mobile.twitter.com/SenCapito/status/887319867208204292/photo/1

Assuming Heller and Collins oppose it as well, McConnell's proposal is DOA.

That's great that she's against it now, but is anyone going to call her out for voting yes on the same bill 2 years ago?

I suspect that there will be ads from her opponents in future campaigns that call her out for flip-flopping on it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump is on tv talking gibberish.

Details?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Perhaps moot at this point, but a new NBC poll of support for Trumpcare in 439 "Trump counties" in 16 states — Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — that either flipped from President Barack Obama to Trump, or where Trump greatly outpaced Mitt Romney's performance in 2012.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-news-wsj-poll-just-12-key-trump-counties-back-n784131

Overall:

Good idea 12%
Bad idea 41%
No opinion/Unsure 47%

Trump voters: 25/16/59
Clinton voters: 0/75/26  (yes, that's a zero)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump may have just directed a thinly veiled threat towards Heller.
https://mobile.twitter.com/KThomasDC/status/887719014138601472
@KThomasDC
Trump, sitting next to Heller, "He wants to remain senator, doesn't he?"

Trump is a dumbass who cant do anything but dish out threats and insults...hence why he's a lousy leader

Trump is not a leader; he's a boss.  The problem is that bossing won't get his way in government like it does in his businesses.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's not a Republican goal to expand coverage or ensure access to healthcare as a right; those are Democratic goals.

And if this difference between the parties continues, it can only help Democrats in the long run.  The American electorate is increasingly moving toward the position that coverage is a right.  The Russia stuff is important, but in the long run it's a one-off incident specific to the Trump administration.  Health care is a winning issue for the next generation.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBO score on updated BCRA is coming later, unclear if it includes the Cruz amendment.

Larry Levitt of the Kaiser Foundation says it does not include the amendment.  https://twitter.com/larry_levitt/status/888045578143244288

[GeorgiaModerate]

New AP/NORC poll: https://apnews.com/658e976fca5e40fe8260cbcc4ae1e865/AP-NORC-Poll:-Most-say-feds-should-ensure-health-coverage

62% say it’s the federal government’s responsibility to make sure that all Americans have health care coverage, while 37% say it's not.  In March, the same poll had it at 52/47.  Other bits:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

I still don't understand why so many Republicans are trying so hard to pass something that would be political suicide.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Breaking: The Senate parliamentarian has determined that some provisions violate the Byrd rule, making them impermissible under reconciliation.

https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Background%20on%20Byrd%20Rule%20decisions_7.21%5B1%5D.pdf

Including the abortion funding prohibition and defunding Planned Parenthood. It's not going to pass in the house without that.

Yeah, this healthcare bill has had nine lives.....but it is going to be really hard to get this through the house with this provision being taking out.

On that note:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

I guess this means Trumpcare really is dead

This is not meant as an offensive question but why do you oscillate from "Trump is invincible, the GOP is supreme" to "Trump is going to go down, the GOP is in shambles" post to post? Like, on healthcare you keep going from extreme to extreme.

It's just baffling.

Because I'm pretty sure they were gonna pass something up until now...

This isn't new.  It's always been likely that the bill wouldn't meet the Byrd rule.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I highly doubt they'll do this, but Pence overruling the parliamentarian would set a huge precedent. Democrats would pass single payer under reconciliation in the future.

"its reconciliable because we say it is"

If someone makes a movie about this, will it be called "Irreconcilable Differences"?

(I'll show myself out...)

[GeorgiaModerate]

McCain may be a no:

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Gov. Ducey supports repealing the ACA, but has expressed objections to the Senate bill:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

^They don't even have the luxury of THAT being what they have to argue about. First they have to pass the motion to even begin debate, and that motion has had at least three NO votes for BCRA 1, BCRA 2, and full repeal. McConnell is probably just hoping that, with all the confusion on what they're actually voting to start debate on, the fence sitting senators can be persuaded with individual concessions. It doesn't really matter whether they're voting on full repeal or the BCRA, as both paths lead through the transformative jungle of vote-a-rama, providing a completely different end result.

Begin debate on what?

It could be the 2015 repeal bill, the BCRA 2.0, the BCRA 1.0, a new bill (BCRA 3.0), or really whatever McConnell feels like saying they're doing.

"Resolved: Obamacare is bad."

[GeorgiaModerate]

Former Sen. David Durenburger (R-MN, 1978-1995) urges Senators to vote No on MTP. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2017/07/24/gop-senators-dont-approve-mystery-health-bill-david-durenberger-column/502976001/