Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[Badger]

They were elected on a promise to repeal and replace ObamaCare.

I thought a lot of GOP Senators ran on just repealing it - such as those from 2012 and 2014. Didn't repeal and replace come later?

If you go by what they said for years prior to 2017, it was mostly just repealing ObamaCare. It was quite foolish to think that alone would fly, but politicians rarely favor practical long-term solutions when it is not convenient.

Maybe for some congressional people, but both Romney and Trump had the "replace".

Donald Trump explicitly stated "We're going to take care of everybody" and promised no Medicare or Medicaid cuts.

So, no, there is no overwhelming mandate to repeal and replace the ACA.

Trump also stated "We're going to repeal Obamacare and replace it something so much better."

This isn't better!

This! I'd say close to half of Trump's voters didn't want or expect to have tens of millions lose their health insurance under Trump. Rather damned foolish of them considering he didn't even try revealing one detail of what his "great" alternative actually would be. Though he did explicitly promise many times no one would lose coverage.

Again that was "no one", he promised. Not "very few" would lose coverage. No one.

[Badger]

This whole thing sounds to me like a set up to repeal ACA then put the pressure on Democrats to force them to the table to vote for whatever garbage the Republicans come up with.

This makes zero sense.

If the GOP repeal the ACA, they own the consequence. There is no reason for Democrats to bail them out.

I think the point is the two year delay. Would Democrats really go into next year's midterms saying "Obamacare expires in eight months but we have nothing to say about what we want to replace it until we get the White House in (we hope) 26 months."

Also would have the added benefit of forcing Republicans to actually talk about and focus on their 'replace' proposals before the 2018 midterms rather than be able to lazily bang on about 'repealing' without proposing replacements. The previous system was not popular or effient at all. No politician is going to be able to face the electorate in 16 months time, 8 months before Obamacare would end, without talking seriously about what they intend to replace it.

I expect that for that very reason this bill won't pass. However I think it really should, its in Republicans' best interests. If they don't then Dems will just pass Single payer next chance they get and that will be it.

The Democrats will go into the mid-terms just blaming the GOP for every problem that results from this bill passage. 32 million will lose coverage and premiums will double and it will be the GOP's fault.

This is how healthcare politics work in this country. You make a change to the system, then you own the entire thing. Democrats learned this in 2010, and Republicans are fooling themselves if they don't think the same will happen.

And the GOP won't get serious about reform because half of them don't believe the government should be involve in healthcare in the first place.

If we're talking about Republican Congress Critters as opposed to rank-and-file voters, half is a generous estimate. Most of those goobers are full-on Ayn Rand disciples in practice if not in name. The only reason more of them don't talk about it like Paul Ryan does is too many of them are that fond of reading at all.

Of course they will gladly make an exception, though, for government for government providing Health Care to themselves, their staff, and their families. Got to keep things in perspective after all.

[Badger]

Of course this is dead, folks. This is simply a chance for so-called moderates to cast a meaningless no vote so you can tell the people back home how they stood up for their Medicare Dash Dash when the chips were not down, but still Dash Dash and for the True Believer faction to similarly vote Yes so they can avoid a primary Challenge from even crazier and meaner people.

Now, we move on to efforts at baking the tax structure even more regressive. Oh yay

[Badger]

It's so encouraging to see all these nice Maverick moderates step forward in the GOP caucus now that their votes don't matter. Of course the average voter ability to understand or care that they held out possibly backing Uncle Mitch to take away the Healthcare of 20 + million Americans until it was a fait accompli, so yeah they'll probably skate by until they get another chance to strip health care benefits.

[Badger]

Subject line seems inaccurate and partisan.

Partisan mayhaps, but not inaccurate.

[Badger]

Trump may have just directed a thinly veiled threat towards Heller.
https://mobile.twitter.com/KThomasDC/status/887719014138601472
@KThomasDC
Trump, sitting next to Heller, "He wants to remain senator, doesn't he?"

Trump is a dumbass who cant do anything but dish out threats and insults...hence why he's a lousy leader

And then trump wonders why so many Americans detest his entire existence.

No he doesn't. He firmly believes that disapproval ratings are fake news and bad polling. Seriously.

[Badger]

At least he's not on board with just a flat-out repeal.

But they should move to tax reform now.

I'm going to preface this for the next several months. Please don't refer that to this reform. There's nothing reform-oriented about what is being proposed. This is tax cuts pure and simple, and and across the board to benefit the wealthy. Again, there's nothing remotely approaching reform about this. That is a marketing tool. Thank you.

[Badger]

At least he's not on board with just a flat-out repeal.
But they should move to tax reform now.

Are you sure "he's not on board with just a flat-out repeal" ?
Didn't he say just last week that we should just repeal now, and worry about replace later ?
He flip-flops so much, zombie trumpists are so confused they don't know what policy position to support, because they cant say anything that contradicts their Fuhrer.

Sigh. Pretty much. All they knows it ain't Hillary and Liberals are bothered so it must be good.

[Badger]

Of course this is dead, folks. This is simply a chance for so-called moderates to cast a meaningless no vote so you can tell the people back home how they stood up for their Medicare Dash Dash when the chips were not down, but still Dash Dash and for the True Believer faction to similarly vote Yes so they can avoid a primary Challenge from even crazier and meaner people.

Now, we move on to efforts at baking the tax structure even more regressive. Oh yay

Just wanted to reiterate this in light of all the ongoing handwringing......

[Badger]

If only McGinty or Feingold had won.

Hard to overcome the rot at the top of the ballot.

Both Toomey and Johnson outperformed Trump in their states.

McGinty and Feingold were doomed the minute the nasty woman crashed and burned in PA and WI, respectively.

Your mother?

[Badger]

Politically, is it better for the GOP that this bill didn't pass and they don't have to deal with the massive downsides of Skinny Repeal?

It is better that they didn't pass this bill.

Granted, house R's still have the AHCA vote around their necks.

Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding! Correct answer!

[Badger]

Krazen apparently was the one who got cucked.

I think I predicted this. Once more - I will take a victory lap, assuming nothing further happens.

Trumpists - you voted for this man. You voted for this brand of leadership. Don't look shocked now that you've witnessed the raging dumpster fire of the last six months. But you aren't men and you aren't people worth a dime of courage to admit you were wrong.

You can't look at me in the eye and say this President is successful, remotely. You swore up and down he would be. You can't say that.

In any case: winter is coming. Enjoy.  

This x 10

[Badger]

TD, honest question, you do realize the fundamental problems of healthcare would have been the same no matter which republican got into office, don't you?

Are you under the impression that if another GOP president was in office, ryan and McConnell would have crafted different legislation?

Instead of blaming trump for every problem under the sun, maybe some of your vitriol can be cast towards the actual people in the legislature who crafted the legislation.

How would healthcare reform have been different if rubio were president? Would CBO scores of repealing the mandate be different? Would the fundamental problems be different? Would the laws congress have inherited be different?

To start with - the President's election started the death knell of this issue. Remember, he ran behind every GOP Senator. If he had won 51-46% instead of losing 48-46%, he could have credibly told the GOP Congress, "I carried you." Instead they carried him and we know that they have the leverage, not him.

Second, there was a better way. The President could have acted with leadership and crafted a better bill and pushed it. You know that as well as I do that the Congress was looking to the White House for leadership and we have floundered because they didn't provide it. Ryan and McConnell would have worked with the White House, and passed something.

We could have spent the last six months crafting an alternative to ObamaCare and owned the issue of healthcare. We could have put through the committee process. We could have improved the law and done tax reform first. Who knows?

To say nothing of the way two of the three no votes were treated - McCain, insulted, Murkowski's state threatened when she had clear leverage as a 2010 write in? 

Answer me this -- does not the President bear responsibility for his abdication of leadership and inability to lead Congress and the country on this issue? If you can't believe Trump is not responsible for the debacle of the last six months, if you're going to pretend Presidential leadership doesn't matter, then you don't really understand why the last six months went the way it did.

The fact the 2008 Republican Presidential nominee was the deciding vote against this speaks volumes.

Marty, you and TD both make really good points here. I have to agree with TD's assessment, but let me pose a question in response to one of your questions. Do you think that Health Care fundamentals would have been any different today without Obamacare passing?

[Badger]

gop should really expel mccain. anyway after next year senate elections republicans will have at least 57 seats, so trumpcare will easily pass.

Cool story, bro.

[Badger]

Democrats on Thursday afternoon sat out a vote on a proposal for a completely government-run health care system, denouncing it as a ploy designed to score political points against vulnerable red-state Democrats and drive a wedge between the party to distract from the GOP’s health care struggles.  Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) derided his own amendment as “socialized medicine” that makes up the “heart and soul” of the Democratic vision for health care.

Four Democrats and one independent — Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp, Jon Tester, Joe Donnelly and Angus King — voted with all of the chamber's Republicans against the amendment, which failed 0-57.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/27/single-payer-health-care-republicans-241035

What a dumbass backfire. What was supposed to catch all these Democrats in a split between alienating the base for opposing single payer vs offending swing voters with reservations about such a costly scheme, instead turned into a golden opportunity to allow swing state moderates up for reelection to go on record opposing single-payer and doing absolutely zilch to offend 99 + percent of the base by allowing the rest of the Democrats to vote present. This is f****** Keystone Cops level legislative strategy

[Badger]

Democrats on Thursday afternoon sat out a vote on a proposal for a completely government-run health care system, denouncing it as a ploy designed to score political points against vulnerable red-state Democrats and drive a wedge between the party to distract from the GOP’s health care struggles.  Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) derided his own amendment as “socialized medicine” that makes up the “heart and soul” of the Democratic vision for health care.

Four Democrats and one independent — Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp, Jon Tester, Joe Donnelly and Angus King — voted with all of the chamber's Republicans against the amendment, which failed 0-57.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/27/single-payer-health-care-republicans-241035

What a dumbass backfire. What was supposed to catch all these Democrats in a split between alienating the base for opposing single payer vs offending swing voters with reservations about such a costly scheme, instead turned into a golden opportunity to allow swing state moderates up for reelection to go on record opposing single-payer and doing absolutely zilch to offend 99 + percent of the base by allowing the rest of the Democrats to vote present. This is f****** Keystone Cops level legislative strategy

It does show that single-payer is probably a non-starter even if the Democrats control Congress and the Presidency in 2020. The Democrats (and Angus King) who voted against didn't have to do so.

What? Every Democrat you mentioned is facing a tough reelection in a solid Trump state. King is the only one who arguably didn't need to do so.

 When single-payer actually may have a chance of passing, every one of those votes are still up for grabs.

[Badger]

When you guys don't want to blame Trump or want to wave away his mistakes, it's all "he's a reality TV Star!" but when he does something, "OMG he's the President!"

[Badger]

Good to know that McConnell won't be getting his golden middle finger to Obama. Also, congrats, Senator Rosen and Senator whoever runs against Gardner.

Yeah, McConnell managed to royally fu%k Heller over with this Fiasco.

[Badger]

Oh, I know it's unlikely, but it's quite realistic. I'm not convinced Tammy Baldwin or Bill Nelson are safe, either. The Democrats are just so out of touch.

Pot, meet kettle.

[Badger]

gop should really expel mccain. anyway after next year senate elections republicans will have at least 57 seats, so trumpcare will easily pass.

Cool story, bro.

While it's still likely the GOP gains seats in 2018 because the Dems performed way above expectations in 2012, there's no way they gain five seats with Trump as President. Heck, it's remotely possible that Dems retake the Senate in 2018 (Nevada, Arizona, and Arizona special) but even that would require Trump deliberately sabotaging the ACA by screwing the marketplace insurers out of funds should get under current law.

52-
53- MT
54- ND
55- MO
56- IN
57- OH
58- WV
59- MI

It's very possible. None of those seats are safe D. And this is assuming Menendez doesn't go down in a corruption scandal.

Don't be dumb. You know that it would take a Republican wave for Democrats to lose all those seats, let alone more than like 3 or 4.

Democrats will lose all of them plus PA, filibuster-proof majority.

LoL

[Badger]

Serious question: Does Trump honestly unable to grasp that CSR payments are not a "bailout" (and in fact not even close to that), or does he realize but think that his supporters are too ignorant to grasp that fact?

Yes, but the answer to the second question is also yes even if Trump doesn't understand it.

[Badger]

So, he doesn't really have a strategy then, huh?

Anyone who thought he had a strategy in the first place was vastly overestimating him.

He stumbled into most of his victories. Some of them were helped along by others who did know what they were doing, but Trump has no over-arching strategy. He has goals, which are to be important/powerful and to make money. But strategy and forethought? Nope. Never has and never will.

I don't know which is worse. That you're right (which you are) about the President of the US being clueless and a little lucky, or the people who still think he's got some sort of strategic vision beyond, as you said, greed and lust for power.

This (all 3 posts) X 10

[Badger]

Vox has an interesting article on shifting American attitudes on the government and health care.  Using data from Gallup and Pew polls, they found a huge swing in just the last four years.  On the question of  whether it's the federal government's responsibility to ensure that all Americans have health coverage, the results were:

2013: 42/56 (-14)
2014: 47/50 (-3)
2015: 51/47 (+4)
2016: 51/46 (+5)
2017: 60/39 (+21)

That's a net change of +16 in the last year, and an astonishing +35 over four years.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/16/16158918/voxcare-poll-government-run-health-care

People tend to support the status quo and oppose changing things. Obamacare is now the status quo, but it didn't used to be a couple of years ago.

I don't think that's all, though. Keystone Phil once made a good post when Obamacare was at least a year or three old and floundering in unpopularity, saying "Weren't we supposed to like this thing by now?" Obamacare was the status quo for years through 2016, and largely unpopular.

It was only when it faced repeal and "replacement" with essentially f$#k-all that people began to appreciate it.

[Badger]

Is even Collins a definite yes at this point?

[Badger]

Rand Paul is all bark, not bite

I think he folds like a cheap suit.