Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[Yank2133]

Jesus.

[Yank2133]

Let's just hope this NEVER passes the Senate.

This will never come up to vote.

The senate may pass their own bill though.

[Yank2133]

why are you so sure it won't pass the senate?

baffle with BS, ryan-talk and push it through with 50 votes.

Because McConnell isn't dumb.

This won't get 50 votes in the senate. They will write their own bill.

[Yank2133]

why are you so sure it won't pass the senate?

baffle with BS, ryan-talk and push it through with 50 votes.

Because McConnell isn't dumb.

This won't get 50 votes in the senate. They will write their own bill.

Which will still be bad, but not this bad.

No doubt.

[Yank2133]

And their own bill doesn't have the 50 votes they need, as McConnell just said today

Meaning 'it won't pass until Trump is back to 43-45%'

No, it won't pass until they can figure out a way to not screw over their constituents so openly (which they can't.....)

The house can get away with this sort of nonsense, but the Senate can't.

[Yank2133]

I suggest that we add more dollars to Healthcare and make it the best anywhere. ObamaCare is dead - the Republicans will do much better!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/868979531641741313


problem solved.

What is he talking about...?

the house version seems stuck in the senate and becomes quite unpopular, so he suggests to put more money into it.

meadows and al will be THRILLED.

The senate never picked up the house version.

Trump is a clown, he has zero understanding how any of this stuff works. It is sad that it would take major recession/catastrophe for many Americans to realize that the President of the United States is clueless moron.

[Yank2133]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Lmao.

[Yank2133]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

lol

[Yank2133]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/13/trump-urge-gop-senate-repeal-obamacare-239504

The President of the United States is a clueless idiot.

[Yank2133]

lol.

These people are going to kill us.

[Yank2133]

15 million uninsured by 2018, 4 million will lose their employer healthcare plans. Great policy guys!

Just in time for the elections.

Go on Republicans, vote for this ****.

[Yank2133]

The GOP can always spin it like: "It's not that 22 million people are LOSING their health care but it's more like 22 million people are just GAINING 'muh liberty' "

You mean 22 million now have "choices."

[Yank2133]

If these s***ty bills keep getting proposed with no changes, I will start saying "F*** it. Keep damn Obamacare"

For the love of God, GOP, get a good bill

They can't, because they are not honest with themselves.

[Yank2133]

Rand Paul says he will vote NO on the motion to proceed for this bill.

Mike Lee also says he will not vote to proceed on the bill.

Lindsey Graham says McConnell will lose his vote if he starts buying skeptical Senators off (using the increased deficit reduction savings).

This very well might end on Wednesday.

Mitch will throw them a bone and dare Collins and Murkowski to not vote for it.

[Yank2133]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Collins is a no

Collins is closer to a "Not yet" or "Not without Amendment" than a no. The subsequent tweets in that series indicate that she might be open to it with an amendment to siphon off extra cash to rural Maine.

As the bill stand right now, I think it will fail.

This is true, but McConnell won't present it as it stands right now. He'll try to buy off Collins and Murkowski with amendments shoveling cash to Alaska and Maine.

Not sure about that.

I think McConnell will put this up regardless if he has the votes or not. He wants to be done with this issue and move on to tax reform.

[Yank2133]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Collins is a no

Collins is closer to a "Not yet" or "Not without Amendment" than a no. The subsequent tweets in that series indicate that she might be open to it with an amendment to siphon off extra cash to rural Maine.

As the bill stand right now, I think it will fail.

This is true, but McConnell won't present it as it stands right now. He'll try to buy off Collins and Murkowski with amendments shoveling cash to Alaska and Maine.

Not sure about that.

I think McConnell will put this up regardless if he has the votes or not. He wants to be done with this issue and move on to tax reform.

McConnell will not embarrass himself. He'd pull it before it cones to that

I don't think he cares what people will think of him if this bill flops. His goal is to be done with healthcare and move on. Pulling this bill will allow healthcare to remain a live issue and the longer healthcare is a live issue, the more problematic it becomes for the GOP.

[Yank2133]

Meadows says that the Senate bill isn't conservative enough to pass in the House.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This all feels like they're setting up the bill to fail. Collins seems to have been the one to signal the mood is now about ACA stabilization. But it's too close to call.

I think Ron Johnson is for the bill. Paul, Murkowski, Heller, Collins all have major reasons to oppose the law based on their state profiles and when they're up for reelection. I think Capito might be able to vote yes.

Also on my radar: Flake of Arizona. He's from a marginal Trump state. With lots of old people.

Flake supports it, and Murkowski and Paul don't really have a real electoral reason to oppose it. Opposing it may make them the 51st vote that saved Obamacare. That wouldn't be good for a primary

True. I don't know .

But Collins' Twitter statement specifically alludes to shoring up ObamaCare. I don't know but if she - a 2020 - is making that statement I am starting to think that the 2020 people are figuring the healthcare markets won't be stable enough by then. It makes me think she said it specifically because she knows there isn't support for the law within the Senate. She's not supposed to be on the pass list as she's up in Maine and she's a fairly loyal Republican.

She wouldn't be doing this if she didn't calculate the numbers. She's not one to go on a limb alone. With the other statements coming right after her I suspect a stampede to say no. The senators, I feel, want an off ramp now.

But I could be wrong…

But what do Republicans tell their base if they give up on it? They can't just do literally nothing in the lead up to 2018 and have the audacity to ask for more power then

I don't think the base is going to care, especially if the GOP gets tax reform done.

I have said it before, but McConnell's best move is for this bill to flop and then 6-8 months from now cut a deal with Democrats in the middle of the night to stabilize the exchanges.

It is not a great outcome for them, but it is much better then passing a **** bill and then owning the issue and it's problems for the foreseeable future.

[Yank2133]

Funny thing is Democrats will play ball with them if the GOP is serious about fixing the ACA problems. And the media and public love bipartisanship, so they will ignore the GOP's hypocrisy on this issue the last 8 years.

[Yank2133]

Additionally -- and this is entirely Trump's fault -- today shows that the 2020 people are now unsure if 2020 will be a Republican year. Collins isn't up until 2020 and neither is Moore Capito. That they said this implies that Trump's approval rating and behavior as president is weighing on their minds and they're not sure they want to add healthcare to a possible lousy 2020.

They wouldn't be behaving like this as much if they assumed Trump would win the reelect or even have a decent shot. The last six months is showing that they're better off not making healthcare an issue rather than rolling the dice. There's way too much uncertainty here.

Yup.

This whole episode shows why presidential leadership matters.

Now the GOP may still pass their bill, but this whole thing would be a lot easier if Trump was popular and knew something about the policy. The president is the one who is suppose to sell the bill to the public and Trump hasn't done that at all.

I mean compare his handling of the AHCA and compare it to Obama's handling of the ACA in 2009 and it is night and day.

[Yank2133]

Trump is beyond clueless.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/27/us/health-care-bill-trump-pence.html?_r=0&mtrref=t.co

[Yank2133]

I do wonder if McConnell and the rest of the GOP was actually surprise to see Heller bail. Because it seems like he has been the catalyst for all this.

[Yank2133]

trump talked with collins and paul and both of them think he is on their side now...


 Trump to warring GOP senators: I'm on your side
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/28/trump-health-care-paul-collins-240065

My guess is they'll fold soon. Rand Paul is a complete phony and Collins could care less.

I dont think so. For all the bullsh**t she spews, Collins wont vote for something that cuts planned parenthood or Medicaid.

Maine never expanded Medicaid anyway. Collins is a fraud who voted to confirm Gorsuch despite his obviously terrible views on women. Collins could care less about PP or womens health. Dont be surprised if Murkowski folds too. None of these people have ever had to have their character put to the test during their time in Congress and the GOP has no room for dissident, everyone falls in line or they get destroyed.

The GOP is the heavens gate of political parties. They're basically a kamikaze suicide cult barging full steam ahead at destroying the government and taking everyone, including themselves, with it. The average Republican politician today is in a never ending cycle of being angry and stupid and lashing out because of it.

Maine has a Medicaid ballot initiative on the ballot next year and it is likely to pass. Collins isn't voting for this.

Both her and Heller are firm no's IMO, unless McConnell drastically changes the bill. The real question mark is Murkowski. Can McConnell buy her off with some giveaways to Alaska or is that not enough? We will soon find out.

[Yank2133]

trump talked with collins and paul and both of them think he is on their side now...


 Trump to warring GOP senators: I'm on your side
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/28/trump-health-care-paul-collins-240065

My guess is they'll fold soon. Rand Paul is a complete phony and Collins could care less.

I dont think so. For all the bullsh**t she spews, Collins wont vote for something that cuts planned parenthood or Medicaid.

Maine never expanded Medicaid anyway. Collins is a fraud who voted to confirm Gorsuch despite his obviously terrible views on women. Collins could care less about PP or womens health. Dont be surprised if Murkowski folds too. None of these people have ever had to have their character put to the test during their time in Congress and the GOP has no room for dissident, everyone falls in line or they get destroyed.

The GOP is the heavens gate of political parties. They're basically a kamikaze suicide cult barging full steam ahead at destroying the government and taking everyone, including themselves, with it. The average Republican politician today is in a never ending cycle of being angry and stupid and lashing out because of it.

Maine has a Medicaid ballot initiative on the ballot next year and it is likely to pass. Collins isn't voting for this.

Both her and Heller are firm no's IMO, unless McConnell drastically changes the bill. The real question mark is Murkowski. Can McConnell buy her off with some giveaways to Alaska or is that not enough? We will soon find out.

Heller is at Trump's $10 million fundraiser tonight. He'll fold soon too.

No, he won't.

He is much more fearful of the Governor (who hates the bill), then he is of Trump.

[Yank2133]

trump talked with collins and paul and both of them think he is on their side now...


 Trump to warring GOP senators: I'm on your side
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/28/trump-health-care-paul-collins-240065

My guess is they'll fold soon. Rand Paul is a complete phony and Collins could care less.

I dont think so. For all the bullsh**t she spews, Collins wont vote for something that cuts planned parenthood or Medicaid.

Maine never expanded Medicaid anyway. Collins is a fraud who voted to confirm Gorsuch despite his obviously terrible views on women. Collins could care less about PP or womens health. Dont be surprised if Murkowski folds too. None of these people have ever had to have their character put to the test during their time in Congress and the GOP has no room for dissident, everyone falls in line or they get destroyed.

The GOP is the heavens gate of political parties. They're basically a kamikaze suicide cult barging full steam ahead at destroying the government and taking everyone, including themselves, with it. The average Republican politician today is in a never ending cycle of being angry and stupid and lashing out because of it.

Maine has a Medicaid ballot initiative on the ballot next year and it is likely to pass. Collins isn't voting for this.

Both her and Heller are firm no's IMO, unless McConnell drastically changes the bill. The real question mark is Murkowski. Can McConnell buy her off with some giveaways to Alaska or is that not enough? We will soon find out.

Heller is at Trump's $10 million fundraiser tonight. He'll fold soon too.

No, he won't.

He is much more fearful of the Governor (who hates the bill), then he is of Trump.

So Trump's window is either Pence or Democrats? It could look really bad for Republicans and good for Trump if they lost a half dozen senators and 30 HFC congressmen but passed something with at least a dozen Democrats in the senate alone.

They should have cut a deal with Democrats from the start.

[Yank2133]

Sasse is an idiot. 

If they repeal without a replacement then they will lose the senate as well as the house.