ESPN March Madness Bracket Challenge - Atlas Group
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Author Topic: ESPN March Madness Bracket Challenge - Atlas Group  (Read 3104 times)
The Other Castro
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« Reply #25 on: March 18, 2017, 04:11:54 PM »

OMG Villanova pls.
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LongLiveRock
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« Reply #26 on: March 18, 2017, 04:13:36 PM »

Well, now I basically can't win. Had 'Nova as national champion... Cry
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #27 on: March 18, 2017, 04:19:03 PM »

sjoycefla currently leads in points, but heatcharger and anthony1691, as well as ExtremeRepublican, are now in much better positions in terms of PPR.
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Donerail
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« Reply #28 on: March 18, 2017, 05:11:14 PM »

sjoycefla currently leads in points, but heatcharger and anthony1691, as well as ExtremeRepublican, are now in much better positions in terms of PPR.

Yep, I basically need Carolina to win out to have a shot at this after that Nova game.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #29 on: March 18, 2017, 05:31:06 PM »

My bracket has been busted
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #30 on: March 18, 2017, 07:28:13 PM »

YAY goodnight kitty cats!
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KingSweden
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« Reply #31 on: March 18, 2017, 07:35:09 PM »

Thankfully, I have AZ for it all. Treat Nova with extreme skepticism
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #32 on: March 18, 2017, 08:20:30 PM »


     If everyone's bracket is busted, then it's really alright. Tongue
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The Dowager Mod
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« Reply #33 on: March 18, 2017, 09:28:54 PM »

3 of my final 4 are still in it at the moment.
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muon2
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« Reply #34 on: March 18, 2017, 10:56:03 PM »

With 2 upsets today the overall average moves to 20%, very close to my expected average.
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muon2
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« Reply #35 on: March 19, 2017, 07:22:38 AM »
« Edited: March 19, 2017, 07:27:07 AM by muon2 »

I glanced over at the leaderboard for the full ESPN challenge, which has 18.8 million entries this year. The top score is 470 out of 480, so there are no perfect brackets at ESPN after 40 games despite the huge pool of entries. Statistically it's really that hard.

Just consider the 1 seeds. They don't lose in the first round so those 4 games are easy to pick. Let's assume that there is a 1 in 6 chance that a 1 seed would be upset in the second round (the actual chance is pretty close at 85%), which means that the 1 seed wins 5/6 of the time. The chance that all four win the second round is (5/6)^4 or about 48%. That means there about an even chance that at least one of those top seeds will be upset. The best brackets would play the odds that each would advance, but over half the time that strategy loses. Guessing at one number one seed to lose may make some sense, but there's only a 1 in 4 chance of getting the right loser, so over all a bracket with one loser in this scenario will be right less than 10% of the time.

Picking the opponent for those number one seeds is tough, too. The 8-9 game in the first round is basically a toss up. So there is a (1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2) = 1/16 = 6% chance of getting them right.   Combine that with the probabilities for the second round match up and the chance of getting the first and second round winners of the 1-8-9 games (12 games) is down to about 4% or 1 in 25.

If each set of 12 games at the second round was equally hard, then the odds of a perfect bracket after the second round would be about 1 in 300K. But the other games don't have the gimme of a 1-16 match up, so the odds balloon to the point where none of the 18 million got it.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #36 on: March 19, 2017, 02:49:26 PM »

JGibson has the unique position of being both tied for first and in the worst setup for future points.
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muon2
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« Reply #37 on: March 19, 2017, 10:51:11 PM »

After 6/32 = 18% upsets in round 1, there were 4/16 upsets in round 2, for an overall upset rate of 21%. That's basically right on the average.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #38 on: March 20, 2017, 12:59:19 AM »

JGibson has the unique position of being both tied for first and in the worst setup for future points.

     In fact, three of the top four brackets have their national champion pick eliminated. My bracket is pretty thoroughly busted, but I could still finish well if Gonzaga wins. Admittedly this looks unlikely given their lackluster wins in the first two rounds, but I still have pretty decent potential.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #39 on: March 20, 2017, 01:38:56 AM »

Do you guys think I still have a chance(my bracket is Oregon will Win)
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muon2
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« Reply #40 on: March 20, 2017, 07:24:02 AM »
« Edited: March 20, 2017, 07:25:40 AM by muon2 »

Do you guys think I still have a chance(my bracket is Oregon will Win)

If Oregon wins then it's very likely your bracket will win. Picking the champion gives you an extra 320 points compared to those who don't. There's also the guaranteed 160 that will at least match anyone who didn't pick Oregon in the semifinals. So unless you fall more than 320 points behind the leaders, you have a chance with Oregon.
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LongLiveRock
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« Reply #41 on: March 23, 2017, 09:16:33 PM »

I'm not doing too badly for myself, am I? Thank God.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #42 on: March 23, 2017, 11:16:37 PM »

Oregon needs to play as good defense as they did today and play up to their poterbtial on offense if they want to win
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #43 on: March 23, 2017, 11:18:19 PM »

My bracket is doing so well, except for my champion being gone.  I could still win it, but we would have to get someone winning it all that no one picked (I'm for Florida anyway at this point, so maybe them).
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heatcharger
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« Reply #44 on: March 23, 2017, 11:48:44 PM »

Well... I'm done for now. Arizona just had an epic choke job which is gonna kill my chances. I'm rooting for Wisconsin now I guess.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #45 on: March 25, 2017, 09:59:12 PM »

Was I the only one on here who had Oregon going to the final 4
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LongLiveRock
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« Reply #46 on: March 25, 2017, 10:13:54 PM »

Was I the only one on here who had Oregon going to the final 4

I have them in my final, man. (Hence my lapping all of you so far)
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nclib
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« Reply #47 on: March 25, 2017, 10:54:18 PM »

I did an ESPN bracket with another group, and I was leading my group of 9 during the first three rounds, and had a percentile ranking as high as 98.1% briefly yesterday. But I picked Villanova as the champion and Arizona and Kansas (and Kentucky) for the Final Four, so I won't do that well, unless Florida or South Carolina wins the championship.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #48 on: March 25, 2017, 10:58:38 PM »

Was I the only one on here who had Oregon going to the final 4

A co-worker and I had to fill out one on another co-worker's behalf, and we selected them Smiley Very happy with that, as they were the best team most of the year. UNC was our champion however.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #49 on: March 25, 2017, 11:11:13 PM »

Was I the only one on here who had Oregon going to the final 4

Nope! Had them in my work bracket even tho I'm a Husky and loathe them Smiley
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