ESPN March Madness Bracket Challenge - Atlas Group

[muon2]

Going into the final four there have been 14 upset seed wins out of 60 games or 23.3%. That's very close to my expectation of 22% and within the normal range of 19-25%. If you picked the higher seed to win every game so far you would have 820 points and be sitting in third place in Atlas pool.

Picking by seeds would leave 4 number 1 seeds in the Final Four. If you picked the last three games based on the postseason rank in the AP poll (1-Villanova, 2-Gonzaga, 3-Kansas, 6-North Carolina) then you'd have Villanova over Kansas in the final and finish with those same 820 points.

[The Other Castro]

So roughly, I think if:

Gonzaga>UNC: Castro wins
UNC wins: sjoycfla wins
Oregon wins: Old School Republican wins

There's a bunch of other possibilities, but I lack the effort to figure that out.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

So roughly, I think if:

Gonzaga>UNC: Castro wins
UNC wins: sjoycfla wins
Oregon wins: Old School Republican wins

There's a bunch of other possibilities, but I lack the effort to figure that out.

South Carolina > Oregon: LLR wins
South Carolina > UNC: ExtremeRepublican wins
Gonzaga > Oregon: Castro wins

That should be all of them.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Going into the final four there have been 14 upset seed wins out of 60 games or 23.3%. That's very close to my expectation of 22% and within the normal range of 19-25%. If you picked the higher seed to win every game so far you would have 820 points and be sitting in third place in Atlas pool.

Picking by seeds would leave 4 number 1 seeds in the Final Four. If you picked the last three games based on the postseason rank in the AP poll (1-Villanova, 2-Gonzaga, 3-Kansas, 6-North Carolina) then you'd have Villanova over Kansas in the final and finish with those same 820 points.

You would have probably used the committee's ordering of the 1's- Villanova, Kansas, UNC, Gonzaga.

[heatcharger]

So roughly, I think if:

Gonzaga>UNC: Castro wins
UNC wins: sjoycfla wins
Oregon wins: Old School Republican wins

There's a bunch of other possibilities, but I lack the effort to figure that out.

South Carolina > Oregon: LLR wins
South Carolina > UNC: ExtremeRepublican wins
Gonzaga > Oregon: Castro wins

That should be all of them.

Looks like LLR will have to use a little bit of his SC meme magic to get the win.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Going into the final four there have been 14 upset seed wins out of 60 games or 23.3%. That's very close to my expectation of 22% and within the normal range of 19-25%. If you picked the higher seed to win every game so far you would have 820 points and be sitting in third place in Atlas pool.

Picking by seeds would leave 4 number 1 seeds in the Final Four. If you picked the last three games based on the postseason rank in the AP poll (1-Villanova, 2-Gonzaga, 3-Kansas, 6-North Carolina) then you'd have Villanova over Kansas in the final and finish with those same 820 points.

You would have probably used the committee's ordering of the 1's- Villanova, Kansas, UNC, Gonzaga.

     That order produces the same result, as Villanova beats Gonzaga and Kansas beats UNC to reach the final. To achieve deviation you would have to allow that Gonzaga beats Villanova, in which case your prediction for the final will change depending on which ranking system you use.

[LLR]

Oh, of course I can only win because of South Carolina. That's too perfect.

[OSR stands with Israel]

So roughly, I think if:

Gonzaga>UNC: Castro wins
UNC wins: sjoycfla wins
Oregon wins: Old School Republican wins

There's a bunch of other possibilities, but I lack the effort to figure that out.

South Carolina > Oregon: LLR wins
South Carolina > UNC: ExtremeRepublican wins
Gonzaga > Oregon: Castro wins

That should be all of them.

So if Oregon gets to the final only me, LLR, and Castro can win

[7,052,770]

Do we have a women's bracket pool too?

Spoiler alert: UConn wins.

OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Do we have a women's bracket pool too?

Spoiler alert: UConn wins.

OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG

It is worth noting (as I found out when they were in the CWS finals a couple years ago) that Mississippi St. has never won a national championship in any sport, as I'm sure Damar knows all too well.  Now, I'm a Vandy fan, and we only have 3 (2007 women's bowling, 2014 baseball, 2015 women's tennis), so I shouldn't really be talking!

[7,052,770]

OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG

[The Other Castro]

Do we have a women's bracket pool too?

Spoiler alert: UConn wins.

OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG

I'm so disappointed and I don't even care about women's sports.

[Illiniwek]

Yay down went UConn!

[OSR stands with Israel]

Oregon stars are choking today , they are missing way too many shots

[Illiniwek]

Glad Gonzaga won, I could win my money pool if they win on Monday, but a little disheartened with Oregon's play so far. I really need them to pull this one out. Not looking good.

[Illiniwek]

Oh my God....that was just atrocious. How do you not box out there? TWICE??? You shouldn't call out kids who are playing their hearts out, but that was just DUMB basketball.

My goodness... I am sick of UNC getting everything handed to them.

[The Other Castro]

Wow so if UNC wins, sjoycefla will beat me by 10 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wow so if UNC wins, sjoycefla will beat me by 10 points.

Zags will win and hopefully, I will be second

[The Other Castro]

Congrats, sjoycefla.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Oregon choke gave NC another win