NV-PPP (D): Heller on track to get Blanched apparently

[krazen1211]

Junk poll!

Not necessarily, Nevada has gone Democratic and Colorado and New Mexico as Iowa and Ohio are trending Republican.  But WI, MI and PA are trending steady Democratic. As long as our Democratic nominee holds blue wall, including VA, which has Mark Warner running for reelection in 2020, we will be okay in 2018 and 2020.

What the hell is the blue wall, lol?

And Nevada trended right in 2016.  Not like 'unknown Democrat' is a real thing, either.

[Brittain33]

On a side note, the last time an incumbent Senator from Nevada was tossed out of office was in 1988, when Republican Chic Hecht lost his seat to Democrat Richard Bryan.

Although 1998 was a very close call for Reid.

[DrScholl]

Heller is gone.

[Maxwell]

Heller must have seen this poll, if his rhetoric on the AHCA is anything to go by

[The Other Castro]

Heller is gone.

Nothing's happening until Democrats get a serious candidate. You can't beat something with nothing.

[Blackacre]

I have Nevada as a tossup for two reasons: the Ds dont have any candidates yet and the strength of incumbency. Once a decent D like Titus enters the race, it'll become Tilt/Lean D in my eyes

[MAINEiac4434]

I have Nevada as a tossup for two reasons: the Ds dont have any candidates yet and the strength of incumbency. Once a decent D like Titus enters the race, it'll become Tilt/Lean D in my eyes

The incumbency is one reason why I have this as likely D.

Maybe one of the new congresspeople could make the immediate jump a-la Patrick Murphy (not that Murphy is exactly one you want to copy).

[Blackacre]

I have Nevada as a tossup for two reasons: the Ds dont have any candidates yet and the strength of incumbency. Once a decent D like Titus enters the race, it'll become Tilt/Lean D in my eyes

The incumbency is one reason why I have this as likely D.

Maybe one of the new congresspeople could make the immediate jump a-la Tom Cotton?

FIFY

[TheSaint250]

I have Nevada as a tossup for two reasons: the Ds dont have any candidates yet and the strength of incumbency. Once a decent D like Titus enters the race, it'll become Tilt/Lean D in my eyes

The incumbency is one reason why I have this as likely D.

Maybe one of the new congresspeople could make the immediate jump a-la Patrick Murphy (not that Murphy is exactly one you want to copy).

Likely D? Heller, as of now, has no tough competition. In addition, he won his first Senate election by one point when Obama won the state by 6. That's worth something.

[Holmes]

Heller is treading in dangerous water right now. If I were Heller, I would run like hell away from Trump so I lose narrowly. Nevada will trend against Trump hard and Heller is target number 1. When he loses narrowly he can make a comeback for Governor perhaps or maybe running for the Senate again.

I agree that I think Nevada, along with California and Arizona, will probably be ground zero for anti-Trump/Republican sentiments in 2018 and Heller is on very thin ice, and also with MT Treasurer that the national mood might be able to carry some B-tier state legislator candidate across the finish line. But a good candidate would make things easier.

[Maxwell]

I have Nevada as a tossup for two reasons: the Ds dont have any candidates yet and the strength of incumbency. Once a decent D like Titus enters the race, it'll become Tilt/Lean D in my eyes

The incumbency is one reason why I have this as likely D.

Maybe one of the new congresspeople could make the immediate jump a-la Tom Cotton?

FIFY

Beautiful Flawless Ruben Kihuen is the candidate then!

[Free Bird]

Those saying "no Republican has a chance in 2018," I refer you to 2002. Also, there is no way you'll be able to keep this TDS going for another 2 years. Trump's already being normalized and the constant attacks are going to get stale and you're gonna have to abandon the current platform and actually start offering something other than "Trump is Hitler."

[Maxwell]

Those saying "no Republican has a chance in 2018," "

nobody is saying that

[Virginiá]

Those saying "no Republican has a chance in 2018," I refer you to 2002. Also, there is no way you'll be able to keep this TDS going for another 2 years. Trump's already being normalized and the constant attacks are going to get stale and you're gonna have to abandon the current platform and actually start offering something other than "Trump is Hitler."

Trump has been giving people plenty to attack him on before and since he took office, and there is no reason to think he won't continue to commit blunder after blunder. That's just how he operates. And if you think all of this won't matter, look at what Republicans did under Obama. Trump isn't as different as you may think. If he was, his approvals wouldn't be sinking. And yes, 2002 was an exception. So was 1998. Both years, though, had unique circumstances and presidents with hugely favorable approvals - like mid-high 60s in many instances. Republicans could do well in theory, but is it probable given what we've seen? I really doubt it. 2002 was a rare exception in a long line of consistent midterm losses for the "in-party."

Governing is not like campaigning. Eventually supporters do lose faith - or at least enough to cause problems.

[JerryArkansas]

Those saying "no Republican has a chance in 2018," "

nobody is saying that

Don't burst their bubble.

[Gass3268]

Those saying "no Republican has a chance in 2018," I refer you to 2002. Also, there is no way you'll be able to keep this TDS going for another 2 years. Trump's already being normalized and the constant attacks are going to get stale and you're gonna have to abandon the current platform and actually start offering something other than "Trump is Hitler."

I refer you to this:

[MAINEiac4434]

I have Nevada as a tossup for two reasons: the Ds dont have any candidates yet and the strength of incumbency. Once a decent D like Titus enters the race, it'll become Tilt/Lean D in my eyes

The incumbency is one reason why I have this as likely D.

Maybe one of the new congresspeople could make the immediate jump a-la Patrick Murphy (not that Murphy is exactly one you want to copy).

Likely D? Heller, as of now, has no tough competition. In addition, he won his first Senate election by one point when Obama won the state by 6. That's worth something.

Any Democrat would be tough competition.

[KingSweden]

Democrats should hope Sisolak and Cloobeck hash out an arrangement about who runs for what, and then Aaron Ford can assess from there (IMO he's a likely run for AG)

[DrScholl]

Heller is gone.

Nothing's happening until Democrats get a serious candidate. You can't beat something with nothing.

It's unlikely that Democrats will not put up a serious candidate since this is their best chance for a pickup.

[DrScholl]

Those saying "no Republican has a chance in 2018," I refer you to 2002. Also, there is no way you'll be able to keep this TDS going for another 2 years. Trump's already being normalized and the constant attacks are going to get stale and you're gonna have to abandon the current platform and actually start offering something other than "Trump is Hitler."

I don't see how Trump is being normalized. He has made erroneous claims about wire tapping and is not backing down.

[krazen1211]

Ensign was so dead in 2006.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think it will flip blue, but definitely not with those margins. It'll be a close tooth and claw battle.

[Holmes]

Ensign was so dead in 2006.

He was dead after the ethics committee determined he was a serial law breaker. He retired and ran away like a coward.

The Nevada of 2018 is different from the Nevada of 2006 either way.

[Mr. Smith]

Ensign was so dead in 2006.

Would've been if not saved by a carpetbagger, even then it was close.

try again.

[krazen1211]

Ensign was so dead in 2006.

Would've been if not saved by a carpetbagger, even then it was close.

try again.

....He won by 14 points.