NJ - Quinnipiac: Murphy +22

[Gass3268]

Murphy 47%   
Guadagno 25%

Source     

[houseonaboat]

Democratic primary:

Murphy: 23%
Wisniewski: 6%
Jim Johnson: 4%
Lesniak: 4%
Brennan: 2%
Undecided: 57%

So Murphy is up 17 points on his next closest competitor, who hasn't even qualified for public financing yet and thus is unable to raise money. Johnson on the other hand has "leapfrogged" from 1% to 4% in the poll. Murphy's favorability is 22/6 by the way, with 70% saying they haven't heard enough.

While I'm not crazy about crosstabs for a poll this small, primary data on this poll is limited so we'll make do with what we have.

Murphy is actually polling best among voters who describe themselves as very liberal, leading 30% to 10% for Johnson (and 8% for Wisniewski, 7% for Lesniak), and "losing" against the field among voters who describe themselves as "somewhat" liberal 18%-19% (though his next closest competitor in that category is Wisniewski at 8%). And Murphy's margins among women are insane: 26%-5% for Johnson (and 26-12 against the field).

[Skye]

Safe D.

[MAINEiac4434]

Adios Wiz.

[Maxwell]

Murphy is a creep but he's superior to Guadagno or whoever the Republican is (and certainly better than certified hack Joe Piscopo)

[houseonaboat]

Damn, 2017 is going to be such a boring year when it comes to elections, isn't it? Quite funny that the most suspenseful election might be held in Montana.

Virginia's primary is still interesting, and given that it's Virginia it's not impossible that the general becomes competitive. Democrats will definitely be interested in seeing how far GA-06 and MT-AL swing to the left as well. But yeah, the more interesting developments will happen in November and December as candidates declare and we get an idea of what 2018 races will be interesting.

[Gass3268]

Murphy is a creep but he's superior to Guadagno or whoever the Republican is (and certainly better than certified hack Joe Piscopo)

He's making marijuana legalization a key plank in his campaign, so that's cool.

[MAINEiac4434]

Murphy is a creep but he's superior to Guadagno or whoever the Republican is (and certainly better than certified hack Joe Piscopo)

He's making marijuana legalization a key plank in his campaign, so that's cool.

So that's why...

More establishment Dems should realize that weed is the way to a lot of young, not particularly political people's hearts.

[Figueira]

It would be nice if we could get a good Democrat who wasn't a Goldman Sachs executive, but as I understand it, Murphy is actually better than the other primary options ideologically.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What confuses me about the whole Goldman Sachs people going into politics thing isn't "why are all these people bankers?"--I've given up performative confusion about that. It's "why the hell are all these bankers from Goldman Sachs specifically?" You'd think people from Citigroup or Morgan Stanley or Merrill Lynch or whatever would be just as thick on the ground, but no, it's all Goldman Sachs people for some [Inks]ing reason.

[houseonaboat]

What confuses me about the whole Goldman Sachs people going into politics thing isn't "why are all these people bankers?"--I've given up performative confusion about that. It's "why the hell are all these bankers from Goldman Sachs specifically?" You'd think people from Citigroup or Morgan Stanley or Merrill Lynch or whatever would be just as thick on the ground, but no, it's all Goldman Sachs people for some [Inks]ing reason.

A large part of it is that Goldman's CEO for 30+ years, Sidney Weinberg, was very good friends with FDR, which is notable since everyone else on Wall Street loathed the president (FDR's famous quote, "I welcome their hatred," was in reference to bankers). So over the years, a lot of Goldman alum found their ways into government for FDR's and Truman's administration, and the pipeline of Goldman-to-government started from there. Lehman also used to do really well in the finance-to-government pipeline as well actually.

A lot of these top firms (Goldman, McKinsey) don't expect their junior employees to stick around forever. The expectation is that you'll work for a few years, then move to the business world, or you'll retire young and spent your time in philanthropic efforts or government service. Goldman just has a lot of experience at getting their alumni into the top halls of government.

[Suburbia]

Safe D.

Likely D. Anything can happen to the N.J. Democratic Party. If Murphy implodes in July or August, the Democrats could put Assemblymen Lou Greenwald (D-Camden) or Jack McKeon (D-Essex) to be the replacements. Anything can happen.

[Maxwell]

Murphy clearly recognizes that Democratic voters are trending left. I just don't buy him as genuine.

[Suburbia]

Murphy clearly recognizes that Democratic voters are trending left. I just don't buy him as genuine.

He's a good candidate. He doesn't seem anti-success. He could be VP in 2020 or 2024 for a minority candidate/Westerner.

[Suburbia]

Lt. Gov. Guadagno recieves 12% of minority voters against Phil Murphy in the poll. In the 2013 N.J. Governor's election exit poll, Gov. Christie got 21% of black voters and won 51% of Latino voters. Those days are over, post-Bridgegate/N.J. economic slump/Trump ties.

I wonder if Guadagno may do worse than Christie with black voters.

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/new-jersey/exit-polls.html

[windjammer]

Murphy clearly recognizes that Democratic voters are trending left. I just don't buy him as genuine.

It is obviously not genuine. But if it can get positive results, why not! Johnson was obviously an ass hole at personal level for example.

[Lord Admirale]

I think any Democrat will win 2017. Christie is so widely hated here it's unbelievable.

[Suburbia]

I think any Democrat will win 2017. Christie is so widely hated here it's unbelievable.

This. I live in N.J. Christie is despised also because of NJ Transit transportation problems. Hoboken Station has been packed with angry commuters because of a train track derailment in Penn Station, Manhattan, the busiest transportation hub in North America. Christie cut a lot of money from N.J. Transit, something I disagree with. I travel with NJ Transit sometimes. Christie should have not cut NJ Transit. He was foolish to do so.

Murphy or Johnson will win the state, most likely. Ciattarelli could give the Democrats a challenge.

[kyc0705]

Hmm. At this rate, will either vote for Murphy or if he’s up by enough in the polls on Election Day, go third party, if Murphy seems particularly bad to me and/or there’s a third party candidate that I find appealing. Not voting for Guadagno under any circumstances.