538: Liberals Would Be Foolish To Primary Joe Manchin

[Virginiá]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/liberals-would-be-foolish-to-target-joe-manchin/

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[RI]

I doubt a liberal could even win a WV Democratic primary against Manchin in the first place, even if they tried.

[Skye]

Because a liberal democrat would be utterly crushed by a generic republican in a Trump +42 state? Who would have thought!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Primarying him with a progressive would obviously be nonsensical, and I wouldn't support it anyways. But primarying him with someone with views similar to say, Nelson, would be a good move and I don't think it would totally ruin everything for Ds, and I would support it.

[heatcharger]

Because a liberal democrat would be utterly crushed by a generic republican in a Trump +42 state? Who would have thought!

I mean, this is the reason why a True Progressive would lose badly, but maybe crushing a token leftist would show West Virginians that Manchin is "one of the good ones".

[Chief Justice Keef]

Yeah, progressives aren't gonna be able to run a successful candidate in WV until they rebuild the labor movement there.

[Figueira]

Primarying him with a progressive would obviously be nonsensical, and I wouldn't support it anyways. But primarying him with someone with views similar to say, Nelson, would be a good move and I don't think it would totally ruin everything for Ds, and I would support it.

No, that makes no sense. Manchin is the only Democrat who actually has a record of winning Senate elections in West Virginia recently, and this is not entirely because of his political positions. Why take the risk of nominating someone else who might not be able to to win?

[NeverAgain]

No lol. (Liberal, but not stupid)

[smoltchanov]

No, of course.. No one, but him, Tomblin and Justice has won high-ranking post in WV recently as a Democrat. No one of three is even remotely similar to "bold progressive". Run them in California, New York and Massachusetts, but not here, Alabama, or Nebraska...

[Xing]

The fact that Sanders did well in the WV primary and connects with some voters there doesn't mean he'd win the state against a generic Republican.

[Heisenberg]

I voted yes, but I am a Republican, so I want the seat to flip. Still, I kind of like Joe Manchin, so this isn't on my priority list.

[Bojack Horseman]

If we had a 51-49 majority with Trump in office, Manchin would probably defect so much that Republicans would have a de-facto 50-50 tie with Pence breaking the tie. Unless we win enough seats to where he doesn't matter, we're basically damned if we do and damned if we don't.

[ShamDam]

If we had a 51-49 majority with Trump in office, Manchin would probably defect so much that Republicans would have a de-facto 50-50 tie with Pence breaking the tie. Unless we win enough seats to where he doesn't matter, we're basically damned if we do and damned if we don't.

Except that a WV Republican would always vote with Trump. So we're 100% damned if we do and 60% damned if we don't

[Anna Komnene]

Yes, he should be.  I fully expect Manchin to win his primary like he has every other time he's run for election.  Doing that will give him a chance to further cement his organization in preparation for the general election, and it will also give him a chance to take a stand against those scary progressives.  All of that should help build up his centrist/center-right image leading up to the general.  It will *also* help progressives blow off some steam in the primary as opposed to the general, where they might be more likely to siphon off to the West Virginia Mountain party, which is the WV version of the green party that has been doing much better than many other state green parties lately.  The usual mountain voters probably won't vote for Manchin anyway, but the ones who want to feel like they're sending a message would be able to do that and then come home in the general.

Honestly, if Manchin can't win his primary, he would never have won the general election anyway.

[nicholas.slaydon]

I doubt a liberal could even win a WV Democratic primary against Manchin in the first place, even if they tried.

[LabourJersey]

If Democrats want to kick some moderates out of office, please donate to whoever runs against Cuomo in 2018 and to primary challengers to IDC. That would be really satisfying.

I'm quite opposed to primarying someone like Manchin, partially because there are many moderate Democrats who can lose to true progressives in states where they would have a good chance to win. That's much more effective anyway--a Senate where Carper, Feinstein and Warner are replaced with strong progressives is worth the cost of Manchin-induced political headaches.

[Maxwell]

wouldn't a liberal primarying Joe Manchin give Manchin moderate credibility? I think McCain's primary challenge helped him win in 2016.

[Shadows]

This is 1 situation where you are damned if you & damned if you don't. For one Manchin, is ultra anti-environment guy which is not surprising given he is from WV, he will vote for no strong Environmental regulations. Secondly & what is worrying he is going against most major Dem issues, even Universal healthcare or college affordability. He was trashing the Canadian system with ignorant logic a Republican should be proud of or about the college plains - He had a vitriol & sharp dislike .

He is like 15-20 years behind & is still stuck in mid 90's. With him you can get nothing done in the Senate even with 60 Senate Votes & a Dem President .

But if the seat goes to a GOP guy, you would see a crazy hardliner doing much more damage & supporting Trump blindly. I personally think Manchin should be primaried for 2 reasons - 1) If a challenger actually beats him in WV, then that guy must be heck of a strong guy & can actually win the GE (Manchin is very favored to win). 2) The progressive base must insert more pressure on Manchin, even if a challenger takes 25-30% of the vote, that should be a message to Manchin.

I am not bothered about 2018 but from 2020 onwards with a Dem President because then Machin will have no election till 2024. There needs to be more pressure on him - He's literally belittling people & saying "Vote me out" if you don't like me & is not even receptive to the progressive base.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hey, Harry Enten, how'd Jim Webb do as the anti Hillary?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/jim-webb-would-make-a-good-anti-clinton-in-2016/

[Mr. Smith]

Not a good idea.

Go after Feinstein or Carper or Cantwell instead.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

This forum loves to protect this coal loving water polluting Senator I see. Well too bad he's going to get primaried no matter what and it's obvious, he already invited the challenge.

[Adam Griffin]

The Manchin team is purposefully engineering a primary for the reasons that have been alluded to above, and "the Left" - in its classic incompetent and unorganized form - is playing right into their hands. It's like waving a red flag at a bull; they can't help themselves. His staff leaked that audio on purpose from a few weeks back where Manchin encouraged the left to primary him and I'm sure a whole lot more is going on right now too.

So here's how it plays out: some no-name (likely a non-WV native) will declare and make general overtures to progressives, maybe hire a couple of no-name staffers once donations begin flowing. The Green Web will whip itself into a frenzy and begin raising money - with practically none of it coming from WV - and before you know it, this person will have a million or two in small contributions. Manchin will happily go to every candidate forum, every debate and engage with the opponent at every turn. His opponent will have a better grassroots campaign structure than Manchin, more canvassers, and possibly more money on top of that. In the end, Manchin wins the primary by 40 points, and proceeds to the general election with most of his ad budget focused on replaying all of those Sister Soulja moments he had during the primary and talking about how he stands up to extremism no matter which side of the aisle it's on.

Then we'll get to hear how Manchin won 3-to-1 only because the system is rigged and MUH CLOSED PRIMARIES.



Those who are fond of labels like "True/Real/Bold Progressives" need to accept that their beliefs are not viable in every state of the country - nor even in every state's Democratic electorate. There are still heaps of Democrats who consciously, directly and overtly prefer moderate and even conservative Democrats: they just can't seem to accept this. To them, it must just be because they're "uninformed" or "need to do their research" or whatever.

They also need to learn how to pick their fights and not be baited so easily. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if more Democrats start engineering themselves to be primaried for brownie points in tougher districts/states. And these irate types will continue to fall for it hook, line and sinker, wasting their time, energy, money and anger on this rather than doing something productive to make left-of-center politics more viable in this country.

It also wouldn't hurt for them to not associate the word "progressive" with "someone who supported the candidate I supported in the primary". Really embarrassing to see people claim that Tulsi Gabbard and Jeff Merkley are True Progressives or whatever.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Manchin team is purposefully engineering a primary for the reasons that have been alluded to above, and "the Left" - in its classic incompetent and unorganized form - is playing right into their hands. It's like waving a red flag at a bull; they can't help themselves. His staff leaked that audio on purpose from a few weeks back where Manchin encouraged the left to primary him and I'm sure a whole lot more is going on right now too.

So here's how it plays out: some no-name (likely a non-WV native) will declare and make general overtures to progressives, maybe hire a couple of no-name staffers once donations begin flowing. The Green Web will whip itself into a frenzy and begin raising money - with practically none of it coming from WV - and before you know it, this person will have a million or two in small contributions. Manchin will happily go to every candidate forum, every debate and engage with the opponent at every turn. His opponent will have a better grassroots campaign structure than Manchin, more canvassers, and possibly more money on top of that. In the end, Manchin wins the primary by 40 points, and proceeds to the general election with most of his ad budget focused on replaying all of those Sister Soulja moments he had during the primary and talking about how he stands up to extremism no matter which side of the aisle it's on.

Then we'll get to hear how Manchin won 3-to-1 only because the system is rigged and MUH CLOSED PRIMARIES.



Those who are fond of labels like "True/Real/Bold Progressives" need to accept that their beliefs are not viable in every state of the country - nor even in every state's Democratic electorate. There are still heaps of Democrats who consciously, directly and overtly prefer moderate and even conservative Democrats: they just can't seem to accept this. To them, it must just be because they're "uninformed" or "need to do their research" or whatever.

They also need to learn how to pick their fights and not be baited so easily. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if more Democrats start engineering themselves to be primaried for brownie points in tougher districts/states. And these irate types will continue to fall for it hook, line and sinker, wasting their time, energy, money and anger on this rather than doing something productive to make left-of-center politics more viable in this country.

It also wouldn't hurt for them to not associate the word "progressive" with "someone who supported the candidate I supported in the primary". Really embarrassing to see people claim that Tulsi Gabbard and Jeff Merkley are True Progressives or whatever.

Did you see Bernie's town hall in WV? The Democratic party's neoliberalism is what is killing it in WV.

[Shadows]

The Manchin team is purposefully engineering a primary for the reasons that have been alluded to above, and "the Left" - in its classic incompetent and unorganized form - is playing right into their hands. It's like waving a red flag at a bull; they can't help themselves. His staff leaked that audio on purpose from a few weeks back where Manchin encouraged the left to primary him and I'm sure a whole lot more is going on right now too.

So here's how it plays out: some no-name (likely a non-WV native) will declare and make general overtures to progressives, maybe hire a couple of no-name staffers once donations begin flowing. The Green Web will whip itself into a frenzy and begin raising money - with practically none of it coming from WV - and before you know it, this person will have a million or two in small contributions. Manchin will happily go to every candidate forum, every debate and engage with the opponent at every turn. His opponent will have a better grassroots campaign structure than Manchin, more canvassers, and possibly more money on top of that. In the end, Manchin wins the primary by 40 points, and proceeds to the general election with most of his ad budget focused on replaying all of those Sister Soulja moments he had during the primary and talking about how he stands up to extremism no matter which side of the aisle it's on.

Then we'll get to hear how Manchin won 3-to-1 only because the system is rigged and MUH CLOSED PRIMARIES.



Those who are fond of labels like "True/Real/Bold Progressives" need to accept that their beliefs are not viable in every state of the country - nor even in every state's Democratic electorate. There are still heaps of Democrats who consciously, directly and overtly prefer moderate and even conservative Democrats: they just can't seem to accept this. To them, it must just be because they're "uninformed" or "need to do their research" or whatever.

They also need to learn how to pick their fights and not be baited so easily. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if more Democrats start engineering themselves to be primaried for brownie points in tougher districts/states. And these irate types will continue to fall for it hook, line and sinker, wasting their time, energy, money and anger on this rather than doing something productive to make left-of-center politics more viable in this country.

It also wouldn't hurt for them to not associate the word "progressive" with "someone who supported the candidate I supported in the primary". Really embarrassing to see people claim that Tulsi Gabbard and Jeff Merkley are True Progressives or whatever.

What exactly does qualify for progressiveness? Certification from the Clinton Campaign?

Tulsi Gabbard for one sponsored bills to decriminalize Marijuana, re-instate Glass steagal, has always opposed TPP, opposed Dakota Pipeline & so on. If you go by policies, then Gabbard or Merkley are absolutely strong progressives (you can never 100% agree on with candidates policies). What does she have to do - Shout from a roof?

I don't disagree with you on what you said - I think the base needs to focus on putting progressives on seats which are winnable, strong blue seats where Bernie won big in the primaries should be the 1st target rather than going after Manchin. Resource is scarce & has to be optimized & Manchin is going to be a lot better than any GOP candidate in WV.

But either ways, you can run a primary campaign & that is what democracy is & you shouldn't be demonized for running for office !

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I have zero warm feelings toward Manchin, but he's still better than any Republican as far as Democratic policies are concerned. If not for anything else, he's one vote more to organize the Senate.