Why are there more naturally Republican-leaning districts than Democratic ones?

[The Arizonan]

Even if you take gerrymandering out of the equation, why is it that there are more Republican-leaning districts out there? Is it the nature of the beast?

[Nyvin]

It's beginning to change, but the root cause right now is how densely packed Democratic voters are in big urban areas.   There are regularly parts of big cities that are 95%+ Dem,  while even the most Republican rural areas are rarely more than ~70% Republican.   A few areas in the South are really the only exception to this.

At least that's how it was back in 2012,  in 2016 we started to see Republicans become just as packed into rural/small town areas and lose some support in the inner suburbs around the country.   We'll have to wait and see if this is a normal trend now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Because Democratic voters all tend to pile up into the same places, so you end up with lots of 80%+ Democratic areas, while naturally Republican areas are often just 50-60% Republican. So in a 50/50 election, the Republicans are spread out more evenly, and thus there will be more Republican-leaning areas.

For a numerical example, say you have a city that votes 80% D, and three suburban districts outside of it that vote 55% R. The entire area will vote Democratic with those numbers (averages to around 53% D), but the districts will vote 3-1 R.

[Virginiá]

Look at these maps:

https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/diversity-explosion-the-cultural-generation-gap-mapped/

http://graphics.wsj.com/americamapped/

Namely race and education attainment (and young voters also present some clustering issues as well). Notice how college educated voters tend to cluster? Same with non-white people. This is part of the problem for Democrats. They are making inroads among groups that will be significant blocs in the future, but right now they simply aren't spread out as efficiently as Republican voters / non-college whites. There are more reasons behind Democratic performance in states / the House, such as lower turnout among different racial groups, but I'd say the packing issue is the most significant.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Part of the reason is gerrymandering the other part is the fact that Democrat voters live in compact areas. Plus I think it harder to sway Republicans voters than Democrats especially post 1994.

[Mister Mets]

Groups that go for Democrats tend to do so overwhelmingly. As a result, districts with those groups will be very Democratic, but not efficiently allocated.

An additional factor would be liberal enclaves in conservative districts (ie- college towns surrounded by Republicans.)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Democrats are a coastal party. Enough said.

[Virginiá]

Democrats are a coastal party. Enough said.

Is it? It seems like Democrats are more of an urban party, and it just so happens that humans tend to cluster along the coasts.

[krazen1211]

Cook and company pointed out that most of the change since 1996 was due to straight ticket voting alignment and of course intolerant liberals not wanting to live among the deplorables...and much less due to the specific contours of a given set of Congressional districts.

Link


 Of the 92 “Swing Seats” that have vanished since 1997, 83 percent of the decline has resulted from
natural geographic sorting of the electorate from election to election,

[TheSaint250]

I don't think it's fair to blame gerrymandering.  Gerrymandering wasn't the reason Dems held a House majority in 2009 and lost it in 2011.  Obviously gerrymandering happened; both sides do it.  It's just not right to blame gerrymandering for this.

[uti2]

This article explains what happened. Obama's cultural liberalism decimated the Democratic party in middle america:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/01/29/could_someone_like_john_edwards_have_saved_the_democrats_132926.html

[The Arizonan]

I actually thought that there would be more Democratic-leaning districts because most people live in cities and city dwellers tend to be Democrats.