How Good is this Analogy?
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  How Good is this Analogy?
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Freedom Analogy
 
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Horrible Analogy
 
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Author Topic: How Good is this Analogy?  (Read 778 times)
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Eharding
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« on: March 15, 2017, 08:53:45 PM »
« edited: March 15, 2017, 08:55:42 PM by Eharding »

John Quincy Adams=Bernie Sanders
Henry Clay=Hillary Clinton (former member of other party, war hawk, ran and lost too many times, same initials, Secretary of State, popularity in E. Ohio and KY in primary -this analogy is both better and worse than the others, and HRC is also partially analagous to Calhoun)
Andrew Jackson=Donald Trump
Crawford=Ted Cruz
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2017, 09:16:58 PM »

Trump = Jackson is spot on. Others, I wouldn't really say so.
JQA and Crawford are both remnants of the dying First Party System - Crawford being the nominee of the DR Congressional caucus and JQA being the Sec. of State and thus expected successor. Sanders and Cruz were both upstarts; they don't fit that role IMO. Clinton might fit as JQA - both sharing the name of a former president and both having extensive experience with diplomacy and foreign policy.
Crawford was the establishment choice who was largely cast aside because of the outdated caucus and his own flaws as a candidate. I think Jeb Bush would be an decent comparison to him - both tried to pick up the mantle of the existing coalition, and failed.
That leaves Clay. The Clay of 1824 was still a rising star, whose ideas would form the nucleus of the Whigs and eventually of the Lincoln Republicans. I don't think there is a good parallel to him from the 2016 field, but Bernie is a decent fit as far as sowing the seeds of a future party system goes (which I believe will be the case for Bernie and the future Democratic Party)
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Eharding
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« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2017, 09:46:54 PM »
« Edited: March 15, 2017, 09:48:53 PM by Eharding »

Bernie is not a good analogy to Clay. Henry Clay is probably the toughest figure to analogize to the present day. Adams fulfilled the cranky old ultra-liberal stereotype by entering Congress after losing his re-election bid.
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #3 on: March 16, 2017, 12:28:19 AM »

"Trump as Jackson" is a fairly obvious observation; it's really quite striking how similar they are, both in terms of their general message and the objections raised by their critics. Henry Clay is a decent analogue for Clinton, but not in 1824; the comparison is stronger in 1832, when Clay was the former Secretary of State accused of leveraging his office for political gain and being too close to the banks. "Sanders as JQA" doesn't really hold up, in my opinion (he's a better fit for the elder John Adams, temperamentally) and Crawford is not really that similar to Cruz, for the reasons Pessimistic Antineutrino mentioned. On the whole, I would argue the election of 1832 to be a better comparison, with William Wirt and John Floyd in the roles of Gary Johnson and Bernie Sanders' write-in candidacy, respectively.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2017, 06:47:43 AM »

Bernie is not a good analogy to Clay. Henry Clay is probably the toughest figure to analogize to the present day. Adams fulfilled the cranky old ultra-liberal stereotype by entering Congress after losing his re-election bid.

...

what?
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White Trash
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« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2017, 07:15:34 AM »

I think it's decent except for the connection between Sanders and Adams. Adams was much more of a technocrat and too establishment to be Sanders.
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mencken
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« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2017, 10:34:24 AM »

1824/2016 CandidateDonald TrumpHillary Rodham ClintonTed CruzJeb BushBernie Sanders
Andrew Jackson
  • Man of the (WWC) people
  • Opposed by political establishment
  • Thin-skinned
  • Defensive of wife
  • Beat native Floridians in their own state
  • Mr. Brexit
  • Won popular vote
  • Accused opponent of impropriety with Russia
  • Defensive of wife
  • (Meekly) defensive of wife
  • Hates big banks
John Quincy Adams
  • Lost popular vote
  • Got a little help from his father
  • Switched parties
  • Foreign-born wife
  • Secretary of State
  • Favored candidate of political establishment
  • Heir to political dynasty
  • Supported an unnecessary war for political expedience
  • Accused of corruption in pursuit of the Presidency
  • Conscience/nuisance of Congress
  • Insinuated that his opponent's wife was a whore
  • Son of former President
  • Favored candidate of political establishment
  • Foreign-born wife
  • Low-energy
  • Spent a lot of time in Russia
William Crawford
  • Campaign sunk by health concerns
  • King Caucus
  • Favored by "True Conservatives"/"Tertium Quids"
  • Low-energy
Henry Clay
  • Shill for infrastructure and tariffs
  • Will never stop running for President
  • Accused of corruption in pursuit of the Presidency
  • War Hawk
  • Supported establishment candidate as lesser evil
  • Perpetually in Congress
John C. Calhoun
  • Changed position on trade
  • Changed position on trade
  • Initially curried favor with populist candidate in hope of political reward
  • Lost that favor due to perceived insult of populist candidate's wife
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Zuza
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« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2017, 12:54:28 PM »

I thought Clay wasn't war hawk in 1824. And when did Bernie Sanders spent a lot of time in Russia?
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Eharding
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« Reply #8 on: March 16, 2017, 04:07:03 PM »

mencken, good chart.
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mencken
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« Reply #9 on: March 16, 2017, 06:53:18 PM »

I thought Clay wasn't war hawk in 1824. And when did Bernie Sanders spent a lot of time in Russia?

He was in 1812; His honeymoon.
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Eharding
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« Reply #10 on: March 16, 2017, 07:08:53 PM »

Say, mencken, are you gonna continue this timeline?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=221361.msg4813340#msg4813340
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mencken
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« Reply #11 on: March 17, 2017, 08:51:29 PM »


I gave a brief epilogue:

I lost the will to finish this in the justice it deserves many months ago, so I will provide a CliffNotes version of how I intended the series to end:
  • Power transfer in Germany to respected politicians from Alternative for Germany and National Democratic Party, ensuring that Germany would never again be in a position to impose political hegemony over Europe.
  • US-Russian joint offensive against Turkey, culminating in the Russian conquest of Putingrad (formerly Istanbul) and the unveiling of the Hagia Trumpia Casino & Resort.
  • Most Turks are "sent back" to Turkmenistan, through combination of self-deportation, repatriation by auxiliary Deportation forces, and ethnic cleaning by Russians/Greeks/Armenians/Kurds. A few are allowed to remain as part of the workforce for the Mediterranean NetTM.
  • Special Presidential trip to Jerusalem, where Emperor Trump forces/negotiates the Israelis and Palestinians into signing a peace agreement, granting Palestinians a monopoly on gambling rights (with Trump International holding a 30% stake) in exchange for recognition of Israeli settlements.
  • Sudden death of Emperor Trump from pneumonia while in Baghdad, overseeing the seizure of oil fields from retreating ISIS forces.
  • New President Ivanka Trump successfully purges all political opposition: efforts of Russian-armed guerillas to install Melania Trump thwarted; Roger Stone and Alex Jones assassinated by black helicopter drones after plotting a takeover via the Republican Guard; Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz deported to Cuba and Canada, respectively.
  • President Ivanka Trump wins 56-44 re-election over Republican nominee Donald J. Trump, Jr.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #12 on: March 18, 2017, 08:13:01 AM »
« Edited: March 18, 2017, 08:14:58 AM by Special Boy »

We will see in 20 or 30 years how good of an analogy this turns out to be. Tbf, Jackson did threaten to kill his acolytes when they advocated the most provocative of their interests but Jackson did lead the foundation for those things coming to pass.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #13 on: March 18, 2017, 08:18:46 AM »

Even though Jackson and Trump are far from identical, there are obvious similarities.  Calling Sanders JQA is a bit of a stretch, but I've always noticed similarities between JQA and Obama.  Both were criticized as out-of-touch stuffy intellectuals, and both were succeeded by bombastic maniacs who appealed to "regular folks."
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #14 on: March 18, 2017, 04:24:33 PM »

Cyclical history bullsh[Inks] theory ahead:

3 two term presidents have occurred twice: 1801-1825 and 1993-2017

Bill Clinton is Jefferson, GW Bush is Madison (complete with a war), and Obama is Monroe

Sh[Inks]show of an election afterwards, results in popular vote winner losing, some electoral college shenanigans, then JQ Adams (Trump analog) got the boot 4 years later

That falls apart when you conclude that Hillary is Andrew Jackson though.
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