Neil Gorsuch Confirmation Process Discussion (confirmed 54-45)

[Hindsight was 2020]

Looking at that list, it reads like 57-43 to me, with Manchin, Tester, King, Donnelly, and Heitkamp going for cloture. Followed five minutes later by the nuclear option.

add Warner, Bennett, and Coons, and that's 60.

A) I think its more 56-44 I don't see King going over heck I can see Tester as well also B) Warner, Bennett, and Coons are not likely yes

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I hate to say it but the Filibuster has to go at some point for the Republic to continue to function. This was my position when the Dems were in the majority and it continues to be my position now. It may just be better to just get rid of it now and let the GOP take the consequences if there are any (there probably won't be because hardly anyone cares about procedure outside of ultra-partisan hacks and political nerds like us.

I disagree. What has to go is having a major voting block dominated by whatever idea benefits right-wing media. Get rid of that, and politics can go back to being about real compromise. (Instead, the left is start to fall prey to the same disease that has eaten the brains of the right.)

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Looking at that list, it reads like 57-43 to me, with Manchin, Tester, King, Donnelly, and Heitkamp going for cloture. Followed five minutes later by the nuclear option.

add Warner, Bennett, and Coons, and that's 60.

A) I think its more 56-44 I don't see King going over heck I can see Tester as well also B) Warner, Bennett, and Coons are not likely yes

They may not vote for him, but they will support allowing a vote and save the filibuster for another day.

[Torie]

Looking at that list, it reads like 57-43 to me, with Manchin, Tester, King, Donnelly, and Heitkamp going for cloture. Followed five minutes later by the nuclear option.

add Warner, Bennett, and Coons, and that's 60.

A) I think its more 56-44 I don't see King going over heck I can see Tester as well also B) Warner, Bennett, and Coons are not likely yes

They may not vote for him, but they will support allowing a vote and save the filibuster for another day.

Except on Politico it says (well more than says, it has up a video of Coons actually saying it) that Coons thinks there is not 60 votes, and the "tragedy" of the nuke button being successfully pushed is "almost a certainty."  So Coons has trouble getting to the number 60.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Looking at that list, it reads like 57-43 to me, with Manchin, Tester, King, Donnelly, and Heitkamp going for cloture. Followed five minutes later by the nuclear option.

add Warner, Bennett, and Coons, and that's 60.

A) I think its more 56-44 I don't see King going over heck I can see Tester as well also B) Warner, Bennett, and Coons are not likely yes

They may not vote for him, but they will support allowing a vote and save the filibuster for another day.

Except on Politico it says (well more than says, it has up a video of Coons actually saying it) that Coons thinks there is not 60 votes, and the "tragedy" of the nuke button being successfully pushed is "almost a certainty."  So Coons has trouble getting to the number 60.

Schmuckey better cut a deal with McConnell because the next guy isn't going to be anywhere near as milk-toast as Gorsuch, and if McConnell pushes the button then, the Dems are truly screwed.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Looking at that list, it reads like 57-43 to me, with Manchin, Tester, King, Donnelly, and Heitkamp going for cloture. Followed five minutes later by the nuclear option.

add Warner, Bennett, and Coons, and that's 60.

A) I think its more 56-44 I don't see King going over heck I can see Tester as well also B) Warner, Bennett, and Coons are not likely yes

They may not vote for him, but they will support allowing a vote and save the filibuster for another day.

Except on Politico it says (well more than says, it has up a video of Coons actually saying it) that Coons thinks there is not 60 votes, and the "tragedy" of the nuke button being successfully pushed is "almost a certainty."  So Coons has trouble getting to the number 60.

Schmuckey better cut a deal with McConnell because the next guy isn't going to be anywhere near as milk-toast as Gorsuch, and if McConnell pushes the button then, the Dems are truly screwed.

There is no guarantee Trump gets a next guy an if he does it might be replacing a consertive justice so go for it

[Torie]

Good, the filibuster needs to be repealed anyway.

It most certainly does. It is a disaster, all of it. The problem is that it tends to cause the parties to have no accountability. If a party has a majority (the trifecta) and is cohesive, let it pass its agenda, and be held accountable. If the agenda which becomes law sucks, the party will be thrown out, and their junk repealed. No instead, we have the situation, where once in a blue moon, a party has the trifecta, and the 60 votes, and can unilaterally pass Obamacare, and then the darn thing cannot be repealed or revised when the other party gets in, without 60 votes, and the only way to deal with it, is play the reconciliation game, and have a flawed cf bill (requiring also that it be passed in three increments, with no guarantee all three will be passed to boot), so the darn line is the kissing cousin to a freaking Constitutional Amendment.

Not good. It's totally toxic to a healthy robust democratic process. Kill it!

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Looking at that list, it reads like 57-43 to me, with Manchin, Tester, King, Donnelly, and Heitkamp going for cloture. Followed five minutes later by the nuclear option.

add Warner, Bennett, and Coons, and that's 60.

A) I think its more 56-44 I don't see King going over heck I can see Tester as well also B) Warner, Bennett, and Coons are not likely yes

They may not vote for him, but they will support allowing a vote and save the filibuster for another day.

Except on Politico it says (well more than says, it has up a video of Coons actually saying it) that Coons thinks there is not 60 votes, and the "tragedy" of the nuke button being successfully pushed is "almost a certainty."  So Coons has trouble getting to the number 60.

Schmuckey better cut a deal with McConnell because the next guy isn't going to be anywhere near as milk-toast as Gorsuch, and if McConnell pushes the button then, the Dems are truly screwed.

There is no guarantee Trump gets a next guy an if he does it might be replacing a consertive justice so go for it

Agreed, no guarantee but at 84 for Ginsburg it's reasonable to suggest she may be next.  Kennedy is no spring chicken either.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Looking at that list, it reads like 57-43 to me, with Manchin, Tester, King, Donnelly, and Heitkamp going for cloture. Followed five minutes later by the nuclear option.

add Warner, Bennett, and Coons, and that's 60.

A) I think its more 56-44 I don't see King going over heck I can see Tester as well also B) Warner, Bennett, and Coons are not likely yes

They may not vote for him, but they will support allowing a vote and save the filibuster for another day.

Except on Politico it says (well more than says, it has up a video of Coons actually saying it) that Coons thinks there is not 60 votes, and the "tragedy" of the nuke button being successfully pushed is "almost a certainty."  So Coons has trouble getting to the number 60.

Schmuckey better cut a deal with McConnell because the next guy isn't going to be anywhere near as milk-toast as Gorsuch, and if McConnell pushes the button then, the Dems are truly screwed.

There is no guarantee Trump gets a next guy an if he does it might be replacing a consertive justice so go for it

Agreed, no guarantee but at 84 for Ginsburg it's reasonable to suggest she may be next.  Kennedy is no spring chicken either.

That generation is still holding on so I wouldn't beat on it an Kennedy is replacing rw with rw

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Looking at that list, it reads like 57-43 to me, with Manchin, Tester, King, Donnelly, and Heitkamp going for cloture. Followed five minutes later by the nuclear option.

add Warner, Bennett, and Coons, and that's 60.

A) I think its more 56-44 I don't see King going over heck I can see Tester as well also B) Warner, Bennett, and Coons are not likely yes

They may not vote for him, but they will support allowing a vote and save the filibuster for another day.

Except on Politico it says (well more than says, it has up a video of Coons actually saying it) that Coons thinks there is not 60 votes, and the "tragedy" of the nuke button being successfully pushed is "almost a certainty."  So Coons has trouble getting to the number 60.

Schmuckey better cut a deal with McConnell because the next guy isn't going to be anywhere near as milk-toast as Gorsuch, and if McConnell pushes the button then, the Dems are truly screwed.

There is no guarantee Trump gets a next guy an if he does it might be replacing a consertive justice so go for it

Agreed, no guarantee but at 84 for Ginsburg it's reasonable to suggest she may be next.  Kennedy is no spring chicken either.

That generation is still holding on so I wouldn't beat on it an Kennedy is replacing rw with rw

There are degrees of right wing (if that's what rw stands for), and the future options for SCOTUS will make Gorsuch look like a gift.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Looking at that list, it reads like 57-43 to me, with Manchin, Tester, King, Donnelly, and Heitkamp going for cloture. Followed five minutes later by the nuclear option.

add Warner, Bennett, and Coons, and that's 60.

A) I think its more 56-44 I don't see King going over heck I can see Tester as well also B) Warner, Bennett, and Coons are not likely yes

They may not vote for him, but they will support allowing a vote and save the filibuster for another day.

Except on Politico it says (well more than says, it has up a video of Coons actually saying it) that Coons thinks there is not 60 votes, and the "tragedy" of the nuke button being successfully pushed is "almost a certainty."  So Coons has trouble getting to the number 60.

Schmuckey better cut a deal with McConnell because the next guy isn't going to be anywhere near as milk-toast as Gorsuch, and if McConnell pushes the button then, the Dems are truly screwed.

There is no guarantee Trump gets a next guy an if he does it might be replacing a consertive justice so go for it

Agreed, no guarantee but at 84 for Ginsburg it's reasonable to suggest she may be next.  Kennedy is no spring chicken either.

That generation is still holding on so I wouldn't beat on it an Kennedy is replacing rw with rw

He's not a right winger on the only abortion that matters. His departure would mean saving millions so he better hurry up and get on with it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looking at that list, it reads like 57-43 to me, with Manchin, Tester, King, Donnelly, and Heitkamp going for cloture. Followed five minutes later by the nuclear option.

add Warner, Bennett, and Coons, and that's 60.

A) I think its more 56-44 I don't see King going over heck I can see Tester as well also B) Warner, Bennett, and Coons are not likely yes

They may not vote for him, but they will support allowing a vote and save the filibuster for another day.

Except on Politico it says (well more than says, it has up a video of Coons actually saying it) that Coons thinks there is not 60 votes, and the "tragedy" of the nuke button being successfully pushed is "almost a certainty."  So Coons has trouble getting to the number 60.

Schmuckey better cut a deal with McConnell because the next guy isn't going to be anywhere near as milk-toast as Gorsuch, and if McConnell pushes the button then, the Dems are truly screwed.

There is no guarantee Trump gets a next guy an if he does it might be replacing a consertive justice so go for it

Agreed, no guarantee but at 84 for Ginsburg it's reasonable to suggest she may be next.  Kennedy is no spring chicken either.

That generation is still holding on so I wouldn't beat on it an Kennedy is replacing rw with rw

There are degrees of right wing (if that's what rw stands for), and the future options for SCOTUS will make Gorsuch look like a gift.

And having stage 4 lung cancer in one lung is better than stage 4 lung cancer in both lungs, what's your point?

[krazen1211]

Bill Nelson says he will vote NO on Gorsuch, for cloture and confirmation.

Burgess Everett‏ @burgessev
Oh boy: @SenBillNelson "will vote no on the motion to invoke cloture and, if that succeeds, I will vote no on his confirmation" on Gorsuch

Meanwhile, Pat Leahy says he will vote NO on Gorsuch for confirmation, but is Undecided on cloture.

Sen. Patrick Leahy‏ @SenatorLeahy  2h2 hours ago
I am never inclined to filibuster a SCOTUS nom. But I need to see how Judge Gorsuch answers my written Qs, under oath, before deciding.

This loon is losing his memory. He voted to filibuster Sam Alito.

[ilikeverin]

Good, the filibuster needs to be repealed anyway.

It most certainly does. It is a disaster, all of it. The problem is that it tends to cause the parties to have no accountability. If a party has a majority (the trifecta) and is cohesive, let it pass its agenda, and be held accountable. If the agenda which becomes law sucks, the party will be thrown out, and their junk repealed. No instead, we have the situation, where once in a blue moon, a party has the trifecta, and the 60 votes, and can unilaterally pass Obamacare, and then the darn thing cannot be repealed or revised when the other party gets in, without 60 votes, and the only way to deal with it, is play the reconciliation game, and have a flawed cf bill (requiring also that it be passed in three increments, with no guarantee all three will be passed to boot), so the darn line is the kissing cousin to a freaking Constitutional Amendment.

Not good. It's totally toxic to a healthy robust democratic process. Kill it!

Amen!

[Person Man]

What happens when we come at an instance in time where the law substantially based on the moment?

[heatcharger]

Question: if Garland doesn't have 60 votes, and the Mitch decides to use nuclear option, will he need 50+Pence or 51 votes? When Reid did it, he had 52 votes so this wasn't in question.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

What happens when we come at an instance in time where the law substantially based on the moment?

translation?

[SteveRogers]

Question: if Garland doesn't have 60 votes, and the Mitch decides to use nuclear option, will he need 50+Pence or 51 votes? When Reid did it, he had 52 votes so this wasn't in question.

50+ Pence. They'd potentially also get Pence to preside over the Senate during the nuclear option vote. At least that's how Republicans planned it when they first invented the concept.

[Heisenberg]

Question: if Garland doesn't have 60 votes, and the Mitch decides to use nuclear option, will he need 50+Pence or 51 votes? When Reid did it, he had 52 votes so this wasn't in question.

Gorsuch, not Garland.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/joshorton/status/846411681349713922

[heatcharger]

Question: if Garland doesn't have 60 votes, and the Mitch decides to use nuclear option, will he need 50+Pence or 51 votes? When Reid did it, he had 52 votes so this wasn't in question.

Gorsuch, not Garland.

Yeah...

Anyways, which Republicans would potentially be against the nuclear option? I could see Collins, Murkowski, and one other wild-card shoot it down. Honestly, considering how little Mitch cares about our institutions, I'll bet he's willing to go till 2019 and hope for his majority to widen.

[Virginiá]

What I truly find absurd here is that so many people are worked up about Obamacare, etc., but there is ZERO outrage over the Supreme Court, which has long term ramifications (and can even invalidate certain laws), being stolen.

Personally, I came to terms with this last year. It still bothers me, but there is nothing we can do. In the end, they hold all the cards. Best we can do is try and get the Senate/WH back as soon as possible to avoid them stacking the courts with more Scalia clones.

[Virginiá]

Right but this is literally EVERYTHING.  Why?  Because the Supreme Court will uphold things that bias the system in their favor for a generation, such as unlimited contributions, redistricting, etc. etc., which allows them to get re-elected and appoint more justices to continue the cycle.  Honestly, I don't know why I care anymore though... both parties are terrible.  

Pretty much, and that is why it is so frustrating. Considering my 2 main issues - election + campaign finance reform are probably going to take more hits under a renewed conservative bench, it's particularly depressing to think about. Democrats can (and probably will) filibuster Gorsuch, but if it works for any amount of time it will only be because Republicans are allowing it to work. They could gut it any day now and just ram him through. No amount of protesting or other tactics will work on the GOP's SCOTUS confirmations. Republicans have spent years using the courts to push parts of their agenda (and to block Democrats'), and it is a top priority to keep as much of the judiciary in their hands for as long as possible, especially for reasons you stated - gerrymandering, campaign deregulation, etc. It is no doubt a big part of their long-term strategy to stay in power even once the public moves further against them.

[RaphaelDLG]

What I truly find absurd here is that so many people are worked up about Obamacare, etc., but there is ZERO outrage over the Supreme Court, which has long term ramifications (and can even invalidate certain laws), being stolen.

Personally, I came to terms with this last year. It still bothers me, but there is nothing we can do. In the end, they hold all the cards. Best we can do is try and get the Senate/WH back as soon as possible to avoid them stacking the courts with more Scalia clones.

Right but this is literally EVERYTHING.  Why?  Because the Supreme Court will uphold things that bias the system in their favor for a generation, such as unlimited contributions, redistricting, etc. etc., which allows them to get re-elected and appoint more justices to continue the cycle.  Honestly, I don't know why I care anymore though... both parties are terrible. 

Finally, something I can heartily agree with NSV on!  This was THE most important, most untold story of the election, at least on the Democratic side.

[Shadows]

Schumer says he has enough Democrats to prevent 60 votes on Gorsuch (meaning fewer than 8 Democratic defections). However, Politico's count has 13 Democrats that are either undecided or have not announced their intentions:

Tim Kaine (Up for reelection in 2018)
Joe Manchin (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Jon Tester (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Michael Bennett
Amy Klobuchar (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Angus King (Up for reelection in 2018)
Claire McCaskill (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Mark Warner
Chris Coons
Maggie Hassan
Joe Donnelly (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Bill Nelson (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Heidi Heitkamp (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/gorsuch-democrats-supreme-court-236384

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/3/24/1647085/-Schumer-says-he-has-votes-to-filibuster-Gorsuch-but-at-least-13-Dem-senators-remain-on-the-fence

Quick correction: Trump lost Minnesota, but it was close, and I think will be more competitive in the future. (I don't really think Klobuchar is an any danger, as much as I think she's overrated.)

Does MN even have state wide Republicans?

Nelson & McCaskill are gone, so that is 11. Hassan is up in re-election in 2024 in NH, Coons is totally safe. Klobuchar will also come along so that makes it 8.

So Dems need 1 of Kaine, Warner (both in Likely D seats atleast w/o a major threat) or Bennet. Schumer is a tough cookie, he will surely let 2 or 3 of the votes & let Manchin, Donnely, Heitkamp etc vote the other way.

Does GOP have the required votes for a Nuclear?

Susan Collins could be  NO. Murkowski could be a NO. McCain could be a NO. Rand Paul could be a No. Flake/Portman/Toomey etc try & seem moderates but they are little boys who will bullied by Trump in 1 minute.

I find it very hard to see Susan Collins opting to go for Nuclear. Either way That turtle has to convince everyone, get the votes & then go for it which will drag it out more, hopefully through this term.

Win, Win for the Dems especially because No1 gives damn about the SC (Lowest priority among Trump voters even in the Fox Poll).