2017 French Presidential Election

[Tirnam]

The financial and patrimonial situation of the candidates have been published (you can find them here)

And we learn that Fillon's daughter lends him €30,000 to pay his taxes.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

The financial and patrimonial situation of the candidates have been published (you can find them here)

And we learn that Fillon's daughter lends him €30,000 to pay his taxes.

Is that the same daughter with the fake job?

[Tirnam]

Yes, the one who also gave 70% of her salaries to repay her wedding ceremony.

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, if Fillon somehow still manages to win, France is officially a joke country.

[Cassius]

If I was being serious I'd probably be supporting Dupont-Aignan by now, but Fillon really is too much of a rogue for me not to root for him.

[Tirnam]

Poll, Harris Interactive for France Télévisions
Sample: 6,383 post-debate

Macron: 26% (=, since March 8th)
Le Pen: 25% (=)
Fillon: 18% (-2)
Mélenchon: 13.5% (+1.5)
Hamon: 12.5% (-0.5)

Second round
Macron 65% (=), Le Pen 35%

For the top 3 the polls are quite stable before and after the debate: Le Pen and Macron neck and neck, Fillon distant third, around 18%.
In the left Mélenchon has a momentum and moves ahead of Hamon, of course the fact that the is now the first candidate in the left could maintain his momentum.

[Tirnam]

It was expected but it's still big. Defense minister, Jean-Yves Le Dorian, will endorse Macron this afternoon.

[ApatheticAustrian]

like i said,......only biggest polling error since a looooong time could save fillon.

nr 1 or 2 in the first round is only an ego-booster

[Tirnam]

Tracking polls update

OpinionWay

Le Pen: 25% (-1)
Macron: 25% (+1)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 13% (+1)
Hamon: 12% (-1)

Second round
Macron 63% (+1), Le Pen 37%

Ifop

Macron: 26% (+0.5)
Le Pen: 25% (-0.5)
Fillon: 18% (=)
Mélenchon: 12.5% (+0.5)
Hamon: 11%

Second round
Macron 61.5% (+0.5), Le Pen 38.5%

And some links you may find interesting
French prediction market
Forecast website (97% chance of victory for Macron is a little bit high in my view)
HuffPost Polling aggregator (unfortunately not complete)

[DL]

Its increasingly difficult to see any scenario (apart from assassination) that doesn't lead to Macron becoming President....if anything its increasingly looking like he will come in first in the first round

[mgop]

macron 63% lol same polls who said that brexit will fail and trump will lose.

first round will be le pen 30%, fillon and macron at about 20% each, and in second round it's all possible, le pen vs either fillon or macron 50-50. now laugh like you all laugh at trump chances to win. this site and pollsters are highly biased.

[Tender Branson]

macron 63% lol same polls who said that brexit will fail and trump will lose.

first round will be le pen 30%, fillon and macron at about 20% each, and in second round it's all possible, le pen vs either fillon or macron 50-50. now laugh like you all laugh at trump chances to win. this site and pollsters are highly biased.

I seriously doubt this ...

(even though Hash doesn't like it, here comes the Austria comparison !!!)

Why would France vote to the right of Austria ?

[ApatheticAustrian]

more importantly....

the polls were only off a little bit with brexit and trump....

the french polls would need to be off A LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOT.

[mvd10]

Trump was never trailing Clinton by much more than 8% (except maybe in early 2015 when everyone saw him as a joke candidate). In the last couple of days Trump didn't trail by that much, and he still lost the popular vote. Le Pen trails Macron by more than 25%. Against Fillon she might surprise us if even more comes out about Fillon but against Macron she is toast. Trump hijacked the Republican party, a (American context) respected centre-right party. Le Pen is the leader of the FN and is despised by a majority of both the centre-left and the centre-right.

[Tender Branson]

It's also virtually impossible for Le Pen to win the runoff, just looking at the favourable numbers of the candidates:

* Le Pen has 30% favorable ratings and 65% unfavorable ratings, Macron is at 50-45 (or virtually even).

* Trump was at -10 to -20, Hillary was only slightly better. Hillary won the election by 2, when we exclude the EC, which is relevant when comparing it to European elections.

* Hofer on the other hand had virtually-even or slightly positive favourable ratings, the same as VdB (even though his were slightly higher). VdB won by 1 and 8 points.

I think the GE election polls in France are accurately predicting the state of the race right now. Only a major deterioration in Macron's personal numbers could narrow the margin.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I won't say it's impossible for Le Pen to win, but it would require some dramatic change in circumstance: most likely a serious riot or terrorist attack that Macron fumbles his response to.(and even then, it could be a double handled sword: if Le Pen is perceived in her response to be overly political, triumphalist or divisive that could hurt her).

[MAINEiac4434]

macron 63% lol same polls who said that brexit will fail and trump will lose.

first round will be le pen 30%, fillon and macron at about 20% each, and in second round it's all possible, le pen vs either fillon or macron 50-50. now laugh like you all laugh at trump chances to win. this site and pollsters are highly biased.

Le Pen can't be bailed out by the electoral college in France.

[Tirnam]

A new low.

Fillon accuses Hollande to be behind the revelations on him. "Never a head of State went so far in illegality"

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

filLOL

[MAINEiac4434]

A new low.

Fillon accuses Hollande to be behind the revelations on him. "Never a head of State went so far in illegality"

"That Donald guy won in America, let's be more like him."

[I Won - Get Over It]

The only thing that could help Le Pen is MacronGate. In January everybody knew it would be President Fillon...

[The Other Castro]

Tomorrow, Le Pen is going to...Moscow.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-23/le-pen-to-visit-moscow-as-russia-calls-her-political-realist?utm_content=politics&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-politics

[Tirnam]

Hollande "condemns with the utmost firmness the false allegations of Fillon"

Fillon made also a disgusting comparison by saying that his situation made him think of Bérégovoy (French PM who committed suicide after an electoral defeat and some scandal)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Hollande "condemns with the utmost firmness the false allegations of Fillon"

Fillon made also a disgusting comparison by saying that his situation made him think of Bérégovoy (French PM who committed suicide after an electoral defeat and some scandal)

Wow. This guy is like if you take Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, mash them together and make it even worse.

[Beet]

The far-right candidate may even have the backing of more than 30 per cent of voters ahead of the presidential elections in late April and May, it has been claimed.
In an article for French newspaper Le Figaro, columnist Ivan Rioufol says the statistics comes from 'hidden surveys'.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4335534/Is-Marine-Le-Pen-actually-miles-ahead-French-polls.html

Somehow I knew the Daily Mail comments would be pro-Le Pen.