2017 French Presidential Election

[Tender Branson]

The far-right candidate may even have the backing of more than 30 per cent of voters ahead of the presidential elections in late April and May, it has been claimed.
In an article for French newspaper Le Figaro, columnist Ivan Rioufol says the statistics comes from 'hidden surveys'.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4335534/Is-Marine-Le-Pen-actually-miles-ahead-French-polls.html

Somehow I knew the Daily Mail comments would be pro-Le Pen.

"Hidden" polls ...

Anyway, polls before the Austrian 1st round were also off by a lot (by more than 10 points), but that's because Hofer was a popular politician.

Le Pen is not.

[Lachi]

The far-right candidate may even have the backing of more than 30 per cent of voters ahead of the presidential elections in late April and May, it has been claimed.
In an article for French newspaper Le Figaro, columnist Ivan Rioufol says the statistics comes from 'hidden surveys'.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4335534/Is-Marine-Le-Pen-actually-miles-ahead-French-polls.html

Somehow I knew the Daily Mail comments would be pro-Le Pen.

Also, if you look at the worst rated comments, they are ALL anti-Le Pen comments, not suprisingly.

[Zinneke]

Hollande "condemns with the utmost firmness the false allegations of Fillon"

Fillon made also a disgusting comparison by saying that his situation made him think of Bérégovoy (French PM who committed suicide after an electoral defeat and some scandal)

Bérégovoy was a very strange suicide and totally different to Fillon. He's completely lost it but the LR is not powerful enough.

[mvd10]

Hollande "condemns with the utmost firmness the false allegations of Fillon"

Fillon made also a disgusting comparison by saying that his situation made him think of Bérégovoy (French PM who committed suicide after an electoral defeat and some scandal)

Wow. This guy is like if you take Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, mash them together and make it even worse.

And a slight touch of Erdogan. Didn't someone on this forum have a theory about Erdogan having a brain tumor? I think that theory might also apply to Fillon.

I wouldn't count out Fillon yet btw. If Fillon has two strong debates and Macron has a scandal (legal trouble or something about his past as a Rotschild banker) Fillon might squeak it to a second place. Fillon's base of old Catholic rural conservatives will turn out for him anyway. But if Fillon still makes it, it will be because Macron completely flopped.

[windjammer]

Hollande "condemns with the utmost firmness the false allegations of Fillon"

Fillon made also a disgusting comparison by saying that his situation made him think of Bérégovoy (French PM who committed suicide after an electoral defeat and some scandal)

For the record he was assassinated.

Bérégovoy was a very strange suicide and totally different to Fillon. He's completely lost it but the LR is not powerful enough.

[DL]

I wouldn't count out Fillon yet btw. If Fillon has two strong debates and Macron has a scandal (legal trouble or something about his past as a Rotschild banker) Fillon might squeak it to a second place. Fillon's base of old Catholic rural conservatives will turn out for him anyway. But if Fillon still makes it, it will be because Macron completely flopped.

Yeah well the debate that matters most was the one this past week - and Fillon was widely viewed as having flopped. The next two debates are 11 way free for alls where it will be almost impossible for him to have much impact.

[Zinneke]

Hollande "condemns with the utmost firmness the false allegations of Fillon"

Fillon made also a disgusting comparison by saying that his situation made him think of Bérégovoy (French PM who committed suicide after an electoral defeat and some scandal)

For the record he was assassinated.

Bérégovoy was a very strange suicide and totally different to Fillon. He's completely lost it but the LR is not powerful enough.

Not according to the official report. But yeah, sketchy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Didn't someone on this forum have a theory about Erdogan having a brain tumor?

It started as a joke, but then Events turned it into a half-serious suggestion...

[Tirnam]

Polls

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 25% (=)
Macron: 24% (-1)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 14% (+1)
Hamon: 11% (-1)

Second round: Macron 63% (=), Le Pen 37%

Ifop
Macron: 26% (=)
Le Pen: 25% (=)
Fillon: 18% (=)
Mélenchon: 13% (+0.5)
Hamon: 10.5% (-0.5)

Second round: Macron 61.5% (=), Le Pen 38.5%

BVA
Macron: 26% (+1 from a week ago)
Le Pen: 25% (-1)
Fillon: 17% (-2.5)
Mélenchon: 14% (+2)
Hamon: 11.5% (-1)

Second round: Macron 62% (=), Le Pen 38%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Are many Hamon supporters switching to Mélenchon? Or are they not bothering since Mélenchon doesn't have that much of a chance at making top two, either?

[Zanas]

Well Monday's debate clearly had a positive effect on Mélenchon and a negative one on Hamon. Are they voters directly switching from the latter to the former? It's anyone's guess, but I'd say at least half of the effect is indeed just that, the other half being lukewarm Hamon voters quitting and abstentionists now choosing Méluche.

[parochial boy]

As with any debate, probably best to wait a week or two before we draw any conclusions.

[Antonio the Sixth]

lolfillonlol

Also, yeah, if history is any indication Le Pen is probably going to overperform by a couple of points. Still not nearly what she needs to have a serious shot.

[Devout Centrist]

Well Monday's debate clearly had a positive effect on Mélenchon and a negative one on Hamon. Are they voters directly switching from the latter to the former? It's anyone's guess, but I'd say at least half of the effect is indeed just that, the other half being lukewarm Hamon voters quitting and abstentionists now choosing Méluche.

CAN'T SPOOK THE JEAN LUC!

[Hash]

There's little conclusive evidence of the FN systematically and substantially overperforming their pre-election polling, ftr.

[peterthlee]

There's little conclusive evidence of the FN systematically and substantially overperforming their pre-election polling, ftr.

Yup.
Polling in France is largely relevant.
If there are some flaws in polling, I'd say Macron overperforms.

[peterthlee]

By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment?

[Tirnam]

By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment?

If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022.

[windjammer]

By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment?

If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022.

This. There will be some recomposition between 3 poles: the left (Mélenchon/Hamon electorate) , the center (around Macron) and the far right (Fillon/Le Pen)

[mvd10]

By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment?

If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022.

This. There will be some recomposition between 3 poles: the left (Mélenchon/Hamon electorate) , the center (around Macron) and the far right (Fillon/Le Pen)

Is Fillon really in the same category as Le Pen? By now he has become a complete joke but ideologically I wouldn't put him in the same category as Le Pen. He is very right-wing on immigration and social issues but I'm not sure whether that really makes him far-right. I'd only use that term for people like Trump, Wilders and Le Pen.

[Zinneke]

By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment?

If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022.

This. There will be some recomposition between 3 poles: the left (Mélenchon/Hamon electorate) , the center (around Macron) and the far right (Fillon/Le Pen)

Is Fillon really in the same category as Le Pen? By now he has become a complete joke but ideologically I wouldn't put him in the same category as Le Pen. He is very right-wing on immigration and social issues but I'm not sure whether that really makes him far-right. I'd only use that term for people like Trump, Wilders and Le Pen.

No way on policy issues is Fillon far right, but commentators have noted how he has changed his style a lot since Pénélopegate. He used to be seen as calm collected and focussing on policy. Now he is very much looking at Sarkozy, who was in a similar position in 2012 campaign, and swung to the far right. Fillon's problem is that he will has come across a PS opposition to unite the hard Right.

[Intell]

By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment?

If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022.

This. There will be some recomposition between 3 poles: the left (Mélenchon/Hamon electorate) , the center (around Macron) and the far right (Fillon/Le Pen)

Is Fillon really in the same category as Le Pen? By now he has become a complete joke but ideologically I wouldn't put him in the same category as Le Pen. He is very right-wing on immigration and social issues but I'm not sure whether that really makes him far-right. I'd only use that term for people like Trump, Wilders and Le Pen.

And very right wing on economics.

[ApatheticAustrian]

and ofc an euro-sceptic putin-fan.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah, I remember back in the dying days of the UMP where Fillon was the moderate to Cope's rightist.

[parochial boy]

I'm not sure if this was mentioned at the time, but two weeks ago, Robert Hue backed Macron.

The first Blairite-communist?