2017 French Presidential Election

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is obviously false. The main cleavage is that the former has been a minister during the finishing quinquennat, has a whole lot of former ministers or even outgoing ministers and deputies around him as candidates for the législatives, and is trying very hard to appear as different from the outgoing majority whereas he is just the exact same thing and would do the exact same sh**t.

Oh FFS, you can be critical of Hamon without being a disingenuous, self-righteous hack.

[Tirnam]

Valls will vote for Macron

[peterthlee]

Valls will vote for Macron

Excellent!
But beware of an intra-party revolt.

[Zinneke]

Valls will vote for Macron

Excellent!
But beware of an intra-party revolt.

I wonder if Cambadélis will send a strong worded letter to Valls, saying he is effectively no longer a PS candidate.

[SunSt0rm]

I dont think Macron is really happy about this endorsement tbh.

Is there a list of PS prominents who they support?

Macron: Valls, Le Drian, Collomb
Hamon: Aubry, Cazeneuve, Montebourg, Hidalgo
Neutral/Undecided: Hollande, Royal, Ayrault

[swl]

Yes Macron recently had to distance himself from all these new supporters and said that those endorsing him should not expect to be automatically rewarded and that he will not bargain any change in his program.

Still, many Fillon's supporter consider Macron as the candidate of the current government. A majority of them would probably vote for Le Pen in the 2nd round.

[mvd10]

So is there any chance that Macron wins the presidency but the right somehow manages to win a majority in parliament? Would it lead to a new cohabitation? It's probably not going to happen, the legislative elections are going to be in Macron's honeymoon and people probably will rally behind him, but on the other hand his party doesn't have the same party machine as LR or PS.

[Tirnam]

That's what the right hopes for. For myself, I can't see how that can happen.

Tracking polls update

OpinonWay
Le Pen: 25% (-1)
Macron: 25% (+1)
Fillon: 20% (=)
Mélenchon: 15% (+1)
Hamon: 10% (=)

Second round: Macron 64% (+2), Le Pen 36%

Ifop
Macron: 26% (+0.5)
Le Pen: 25.5% (+0.5)
Fillon: 17.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 14% (=)
Hamon: 10% (-0.5)

Second round: Macron 60% (=), Le Pen 40%

Elabe poll
Macron: 25.5% (-0.5 since last week)
Le Pen: 24% (-0.5)
Fillon: 18%
Mélenchon: 15% (+1.5)
Hamon: 10% (-1.5)

Second round: Macron 63% (-1), Le Pen 37%

[SunSt0rm]

its not unlikely anymore Hamon will end up in single digits.

[ApatheticAustrian]

macron not being in the top 2 would need to be the biggest polling error since....does anyone know?

[Tender Branson]

macron not being in the top 2 would need to be the biggest polling error since....does anyone know?

Hash, be patient ...

Austria 2016, first round.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I'm not sure if this was mentioned at the time, but two weeks ago, Robert Hue backed Macron.

The first Blairite-communist?

"We are restating our communism in terms..."

That was Wilson, not Blair, but still.

[Devout Centrist]

macron not being in the top 2 would need to be the biggest polling error since....does anyone know?

Ever. I mean, ever. Brexit led some polls before the vote and Trump had a small shot at winning. Every poll from mid February onward would be wrong.

[Tirnam]

macron not being in the top 2 would need to be the biggest polling error since....does anyone know?

Ever. I mean, ever. Brexit led some polls before the vote and Trump had a small shot at winning. Every poll from mid February onward would be wrong.

Well in France, in the end of March 2002, Jospin was at 21%, when Le Pen and Laguiller were both at 10%.

[Zinneke]

I still think the Right has a majority in France, and that Le Pen is being slightly underpolled, based on FranceInfo, that well known FN radio station, saying there is evidence of voters turning down pollsters. Two factors that weigh against Macron.

Also, I recall the figures showing Macron had the most uncertain voters.

So is there any chance that Macron wins the presidency but the right somehow manages to win a majority in parliament? Would it lead to a new cohabitation? It's probably not going to happen, the legislative elections are going to be in Macron's honeymoon and people probably will rally behind him, but on the other hand his party doesn't have the same party machine as LR or PS.

I think its distinctly possible but that Macron will try to break up the two machines first.

[Tirnam]

I still think the Right has a majority in France, and that Le Pen is being slightly underpolled, based on FranceInfo, that well known FN radio station, saying there is evidence of voters turning down pollsters. Two factors that weigh against Macron.

Also, I recall the figures showing Macron had the most uncertain voters.

So is there any chance that Macron wins the presidency but the right somehow manages to win a majority in parliament? Would it lead to a new cohabitation? It's probably not going to happen, the legislative elections are going to be in Macron's honeymoon and people probably will rally behind him, but on the other hand his party doesn't have the same party machine as LR or PS.

I think its distinctly possible but that Macron will try to break up the two machines first.

FranceInfo a FN radio? And you mean this article?
It's very hard to find any real evidence of a polling error in this article just some basic suspicions.
Practically all the polls show the same level for every candidate, the same trends. If there was a deep problem with the polls I don't think that a such consensus would exist.
Also, the same methodologies were used for the 2015 elections, in those elections FN underperformed the polls.

And now the certainty of the Macron's vote is up: 62% in IFOP (better than Mélenchon and Hamon), also 62% in the Elabe poll (same as Mélenchon, higher than Hamon)

[parochial boy]

I still think the Right has a majority in France, and that Le Pen is being slightly underpolled, based on FranceInfo, that well known FN radio station, saying there is evidence of voters turning down pollsters. Two factors that weigh against Macron.

Also, I recall the figures showing Macron had the most uncertain voters.

So is there any chance that Macron wins the presidency but the right somehow manages to win a majority in parliament? Would it lead to a new cohabitation? It's probably not going to happen, the legislative elections are going to be in Macron's honeymoon and people probably will rally behind him, but on the other hand his party doesn't have the same party machine as LR or PS.

I think its distinctly possible but that Macron will try to break up the two machines first.

FranceInfo a FN radio? And you mean this article?
It's very hard to find any real evidence of a polling error in this article just some basic suspicions.
Practically all the polls show the same level for every candidate, the same trends. If there was a deep problem with the polls I don't think that a such consensus would exist.
Also, the same methodologies were used for the 2015 elections, in those elections FN underperformed the polls.

And now the certainty of the Macron's vote is up: 62% in IFOP (better than Mélenchon and Hamon), also 62% in the Elabe poll (same as Mélenchon, higher than Hamon)

Well there is a phenomena called herding. When polls seem to all be saying the same thing, and there aren't even any outliers to speak of, that starts to ring alarm bells.

[Hash]

As I've already said, there's no conclusive evidence of significant or persistent underpolling for the FN. Panzergirl slightly overperformed her last polling numbers in 2012, although the difference was never very large and probably within the margin of error. Since then, polling for the FN has been right on the spot or very close in both 2014 and 2015, when it wasn't any more or less 'shameful' to tell a pollster you backed the FN.

[Zinneke]

As I've already said, there's no conclusive evidence of significant or persistent underpolling for the FN. Panzergirl slightly overperformed her last polling numbers in 2012, although the difference was never very large and probably within the margin of error. Since then, polling for the FN has been right on the spot or very close in both 2014 and 2015, when it wasn't any more or less 'shameful' to tell a pollster you backed the FN.

Since then, there is a new phenomena in the anti-establishment Right (and by that I am not just talking about the FN) though, which is the idea that the pollsters are part of the left-liberal establishment, and that they cannot be trusted.

Last week of polling for Fillon had him just a few points ahead of  Juppe and Sarkozy, and the final result had him well ahead of them. Unless he gained massive momentum due to his electability, there is just one example of the French pollsters underpolling in the Right.

[Hash]

There's a major difference, one which should be pretty obvious, between polling for an election which will draw some 30 million voters and a primary, even a high turnout one, which draws at most 4-5 million voters.

[Former President tack50]

Valls will vote for Macron

Is PS dead after this? (assuming Hamon keeps falling) I can see their voters splitting between Melenchon and Macron.

[DL]

As I've already said, there's no conclusive evidence of significant or persistent underpolling for the FN. Panzergirl slightly overperformed her last polling numbers in 2012, although the difference was never very large and probably within the margin of error. Since then, polling for the FN has been right on the spot or very close in both 2014 and 2015, when it wasn't any more or less 'shameful' to tell a pollster you backed the FN.

Who "tells" pollsters anything anymore...nowadays most of the polling we see is either online or automated...there might be a 'social desirability bias' when being interviewed by a live person - but when yo9u are just going clickety click on an online survey - no reason to be shy about voting for Lepen if that is what you plan to do

[Zinneke]

There's a major difference, one which should be pretty obvious, between polling for an election which will draw some 30 million voters and a primary, even a high turnout one, which draws at most 4-5 million voters.

I'm pretty confused.

You are contesting that the same phenomenon cannot have a similar skewering of polling of two separate events, especially as the two populations overlap?

Also, in general, population size has no effect on the accuracy of their samples, variability does. There are exceptions, but something tells me 4-5million is x enough times larger than their samples for their sample to not have potentially missed out on a key margin. So that systemic error is rectified. Some other one must have been present. Shy right-wingers? who knows. I still remain a pessimist, maybe that's me systemic error in general.

[TheSaint250]

1. Will Valls endorsement hurt Macron?

2. Will the Socialist Party falter (kind of like the Dutch Labour Party), and if so, will En Marche! take its place?

[Zuza]

I'd say PS is already in the same, if not worse, position as the Dutch Labor Party; now it could fall even lower, though.