2017 French Presidential Election

[Tirnam]

Well ...

Odoxa poll, for Le Point, France 2

Macron: 26% (-0,5 since March, 19)
Le Pen: 25% (-1)
Fillon: 17% (-2)
Mélenchon: 16% (+5.5)
Hamon: 8% (-4.5)

Second round: Macron 59% (-5), Le Pen 41%

[MAINEiac4434]

Well those second round numbers could certainly be better...

[DL]

Why is it considered "realistic" for a pollster to ask a question about a LePen-Fillon runoff but not about a LePen-Melenchon runoff???

[parochial boy]

From the same poll,



Fillon voters split pretty equally between Le Pen and Macron; a big chunk of Fillon Melenchon voters abstain in the second round.

I guess that is pretty much what you'd expect, Fillon's left overs will be the hardcore - but I would expect Melenchon's more recent pick-ups to be more willing to vote for Macron in round two.

[ApatheticAustrian]

melenchon and hamon voters are honorable....and fillon voters seem to dislike gaullism/republicanism...how ironic.

[Tirnam]

Why is it considered "realistic" for a pollster to ask a question about a LePen-Fillon runoff but not about a LePen-Melenchon runoff???

Sometimes Fillon is still within the margin of error to be in a runoff (for OpinionWay for example). But in this Odoxa poll he is not, and there is no question about a Fillon-Le Pen runoff.

[Antonio the Sixth]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

[ApatheticAustrian]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

you should think positive, in other countries, after 5 years of someone like hollande, the "left" would be in an even worse shape. i wonder if - by some accident or some other reason - melenchon would have dropped out or declined to run, his voters would have chosen hamon.

[Antonio the Sixth]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

you should think positive, in other countries, after 5 years of someone like hollande, the "left" would be in an even worse shape. i wonder if - by some accident or some other reason - melenchon would have dropped out or declined to run, his voters would have chosen hamon.

I'd say around half of them would have voted Hamon and half gone to minor candidates or abstained.

[Zinneke]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

Who are you talking about in both cases?

[Antonio the Sixth]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

Who are you talking about in both cases?

Isn't it obvious?

[ApatheticAustrian]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

Who are you talking about in both cases?

I understand Antonio's frustration about Hamon's predicament.

It's a year of truth, with a real right-winger as LR candidate and a real left-winger as PS candidate.

[America Needs R'hllor]

From the same poll,



Fillon voters split pretty equally between Le Pen and Macron; a big chunk of Fillon Melenchon voters abstain in the second round.

I guess that is pretty much what you'd expect, Fillon's left overs will be the hardcore - but I would expect Melenchon's more recent pick-ups to be more willing to vote for Macron in round two.

These 1% 1st round Macron voters who would vote Le Pen in the second round though.

[Former President tack50]

Tracking polls

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 24% (-1)
Macron: 24% (-1)
Fillon: 19% (-1)
Mélenchon: 15% (=)
Hamon: 11% (+1)

Second round: Macron 63% (-1), Le Pen 37%

Ifop
Macron: 26% (=)
Le Pen: 25% (-0.5)
Fillon: 17.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 15% (+0.5)
Hamon: 10% (=)

Second round: Macron 60% (=), Le Pen 40%

Mélenchon comes really close of Fillon. I think it will be really difficult for Mélenchon to go beyond 15% but who knows ...

Wow, at this rate France's 2 traditional parties might come dead last XD. Can Melenchon overtake Fillon? Because I guess if he does so France's 2 main parties are toast, replaced with some weird 3 party system (FN-En Marche-whatever Melenchon's party is called).

[parochial boy]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

Right guy at the wrong time sadly. At least the left wing occasionally wins in France, I can only dream...

[ApatheticAustrian]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

Right guy at the wrong time sadly. At least the left wing occasionally wins in France, I can only dream...

well to be fair, it is close to impossible to really "win" an election in your country and even if it should happen, the people must still support each and every reform.

[Zinneke]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

Who are you talking about in both cases?

I understand Antonio's frustration about Hamon's predicament.

It's a year of truth, with a real right-winger as LR candidate and a real left-winger as PS candidate.

OK, and was he referring to Jospin in 2002?

[Antonio the Sixth]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

Who are you talking about in both cases?

I understand Antonio's frustration about Hamon's predicament.

It's a year of truth, with a real right-winger as LR candidate and a real left-winger as PS candidate.

OK, and was he referring to Jospin in 2002?

Yes.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

They should either prohibit publishing all polls or bugger off. This is silly.

[Zinneke]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

Who are you talking about in both cases?

I understand Antonio's frustration about Hamon's predicament.

It's a year of truth, with a real right-winger as LR candidate and a real left-winger as PS candidate.

OK, and was he referring to Jospin in 2002?

Yes.

How are the two comparable though? Jospin said his own program wasn't socialist.

[Antonio the Sixth]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

Who are you talking about in both cases?

I understand Antonio's frustration about Hamon's predicament.

It's a year of truth, with a real right-winger as LR candidate and a real left-winger as PS candidate.

OK, and was he referring to Jospin in 2002?

Yes.

How are the two comparable though? Jospin said his own program wasn't socialist.

I'm definitely to his left ideologically, but he still did a lot for the working class (probably more than Mitterrand, for all his Molletist rhetoric) and was a paragon of integrity and uprightness in politics, which is a rarity for French leaders.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What about Royal? Was she a good candidate?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What about Royal? Was she a good candidate?

...seriously? Christ.

[MAINEiac4434]

What about Royal? Was she a good candidate?

Ségolène was slightly less moderate than François.

[peterthlee]

Will Macron obliterate Le Pen by a similar margin in the HK Chief Executive election (67-33)?