2017 French Presidential Election

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

This thread is about France, not Austria.

Yes, but they have similar voting patterns.

Please do not delete stuff that don't fit your personal world-view. There's freedom of speech, no matter if you like that fact or not. Don't behave like Islamo-Fascist Erdogan and the likes ... Thx.

To paraphrase the great Voltaire: on this forum, it is good to delete an Austrian from time to time, in order to encourage the others"

[Zinneke]

https://imgur.com/Qf6KtvK

By the way, any poll is to be taken with a pinch of salt, including the ones that have been towed here, because France Info have found that loads of people turn down pollsters as an act of protest. There's SME on a massive scale in France (and I'm one of those who didn't understand why Brexit was said to be a failure of the pollsters rather than the analysts). 

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, Hamon is f**ked.

[Tirnam]

Your picture is a Facebook poll.

All the polls show the same trends, the same levels for every candidate. If there is a big polling problem in France how polls can be exactly the same?

[windjammer]

OK, Hamon is f**ked.

I would vote for Mélenchon if he has a chance to reach the run off.
A d you?

[Zinneke]

Your picture is a Facebook poll.

All the polls show the same trends, the same levels for every candidate. If there is a big polling problem in France how polls can be exactly the same?

They all have the same SME, which is people turning down pollsters. Not me that says this, France Info.

[Intell]

Rise Melechon, anyone but Macron, Fillon and LePen please!

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, Hamon is f**ked.

I would vote for Mélenchon if he has a chance to reach the run off.
A d you?

If he has a chance, yes.

But if neither of them has a chance, I'll vote for Hamon because he's a better person and has better policies.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

For the left Melenchon is basically a destructive troll and for the same left his Presidency would be even more disastrous than Hollande's to PS. I'd certainly take him over Le Pen or Fillon, but I'm not sure I wouldn't pick Macron instead if the choice boiled down to the two.

[Tirnam]

The debate is (finally) over. The 2 next debates with 11 candidates will be horrible.

I have no idea of who won. Each candidate has some good or bad moment.

[warandwar]

The debate is (finally) over. The 2 next debates with 11 candidates will be horrible.

I have no idea of who won. Each candidate has some good or bad moment.

I thought it was pretty clear that melanchon did very well.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Level of debate was pretty good, especially compared to Polish ones and I think Kal will agree with me.

[Tirnam]

The debate is (finally) over. The 2 next debates with 11 candidates will be horrible.

I have no idea of who won. Each candidate has some good or bad moment.

I thought it was pretty clear that melanchon did very well.

Yes he did well, but I'm not sure he convinced a lot of people who aren't leftist. But in his fight against Hamon he did well.

[Tirnam]

BFM - Elabe flashpoll

Who was the most convincing?
Macron: 29%
Mélenchon: 20%
Fillon: 19%
Le Pen: 19%
Hamon: 11%

Best project for France?
Macron: 30%
Fillon: 20%
Le Pen: 19%

Best qualities to be president?
Macron: 31%
Fillon: 24%
Le Pen: 17%

[GlobeSoc]

Melenchon will probably have a 4-6 point bump from this

[Devout Centrist]

Melenchon will probably have a 4-6 point bump from this

4-6?! Unless Hamon implodes, I don't see that happening. Maybe a moderate boost.

Macron will solidify his position and keep tying Marine Le Pen in polls. Fillion floundered like a bass out there.

[SPQR]

This board has certain rules which are explicitly set out, including the need to "contribute relevant content to the threads" and refraining "do not add any insightful value to the thread and discussion", and as is also explicitly set out, as moderator it is to my discretion how to treat such posts - and sometimes I choose to delete posts, without giving any 'infraction points'. The quality of discussion and analysis on the forum has shamefully collapsed in recent years, and this board is one of the few boards which still retains some level of interesting and relevant intelligent analysis, and I really intend to keep it that way. Ceaseless "Let me tell you how it is done in Austria!" posts are not helpful and contribute nothing to this thread, particularly when there's already an active thread about Austria where such posts would obviously be more than welcome (and please don't pretend that you're doing comparative politics, because that's not what comparative politics is). For that reason, for example, I won't go about making "Let me tell you how it is done in Canada!" posts in a thread about Austria, because posts like that wouldn't add any insightful value to the discussion.

Throwing around your favourite little epithets willy-nilly isn't helpful to anyone here and really doesn't elevate the quality of debate, which isn't very high to begin with on this forum. Nor are little "I can do what I want!" fits.

That's all I will say on this topic. If you wish to discuss it further, you may send me a PM.

Oh, thank you.

Anyway those post-debate poll numbers look pretty good for Macron. I saw a few "debate highlights" and he looked convincing when he attacked Le Pen.

On an unrelated matter: is there a period before elections when polls are forbidden (for instance in Italy it's the two weeks before election day)?
If Hamon were to remain at more than 10% points from the run-off just before the first round, he could bleed even more voters to Macron.

[ApatheticAustrian]

is melenchon able to swallow some FN voters too?

[Tintrlvr]

is melenchon able to swallow some FN voters too?

Maybe some. He's definitely got at least a bit of overlap with Le Pen in certain demographics (laborers, in particular). I expect most of any gains he makes to come from Hamon. After the debate I think Hamon is going to drop into single digits, not really through any fault of his own but because he is squeezed between Macron and Melenchon.

[Antonio the Sixth]

For the left Melenchon is basically a destructive troll and for the same left his Presidency would be even more disastrous than Hollande's to PS. I'd certainly take him over Le Pen or Fillon, but I'm not sure I wouldn't pick Macron instead if the choice boiled down to the two.

Mélenchon is a terrible person, but at least his program isn't a bunch of vague yet distinctly harmful neoliberal platitudes. He'd definitely do less harm in terms of policy, at least.

[ApatheticAustrian]

this is all quite hypothetical since all of us know, melenchon isn't going to win.

he and hamon block one another from relevance.

only important question would be, if you want to prevent a fascist from ruling...or view a corrupt-far-right thatcherist and a maybe overhyped social-liberal germanophile as equally evil.

[Vosem]

Watching clips of this translated into English from France 24, Melenchon is by far the most entertaining of these candidates; his mannerisms are much more Trumpian than anyone else's. I don't think I would've enjoyed him nearly as much if I thought he was a serious possibility for winning, but while he's languishing at 10-12% he's a lot of fun. Macron's and Le Pen's voices both came off as vaguely unsure and annoying (though perhaps it's simply the translators). Fillon and Hamon both come off as classically presidential, though Fillon can't have been helped by the other candidates making occasional snide remarks about or references to the banning of the hiring of relatives and the camera panning to Fillon not reacting. Hamon would've been OK, but the exchange where he tried to confront Macron about his movement's fundraising, where Hamon kept repeating to Macron, "I trust you, but...", seemed to come off as him implying that the differences between him and Macron are not so great.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

lol, Fillon's big education idea is school uniforms.

As if bandit needed more reason to hate him.

[Intell]

lol, Fillon's big education idea is school uniforms.

As if bandit needed more reason to hate him.

A broken clock is right twice a day, such a glorious policy.

[Hash]

Another aspect of his education policy appears to be "5 year old kids will learn to respect authority!"