2017 French Presidential Election

[Tirnam]

Ifop

Macron: 25.5% (-0.5)
Le Pen: 25% (=)
Fillon: 17.5% (-0.5)
Mélenchon: 14% (+1)
Hamon: 10.5% (=)

Second round: Macron 60,5% (-1), Le Pen 39,5%

[Zuza]

Hamon: 5% (=)

5 %? Looks like an error.

[Tirnam]

Oops, sorry.

[MAINEiac4434]

I find all this right-wing PS support of Macron funny, because the PRG – which itself is to the right of the right of the PS – is backing Hamon, at least according to their website.

[Zuza]

Who is Lassalle? He was a member of MoDem, so I can assume he can be described as a centrist. Is it true? Does he fit any label at all? It also seems he uses elements of Occitan regionalism/nationalism.

[Zinneke]

Who is Lassalle? He was a member of MoDem, so I can assume he can be described as a centrist. Is it true? Does he fit any label at all? It also seems he uses elements of Occitan regionalism/nationalism.

THe core of his message seems to be the province vs the metropole. He's a bit of a meme small candidate who does funny interviews and ads, but it would be interesting to see what his program is about.

Also, I have a question for the French, is Lassalle's region Occitania or Basque Country, culturally at least?

[Zanas]

Who is Lassalle? He was a member of MoDem, so I can assume he can be described as a centrist. Is it true? Does he fit any label at all? It also seems he uses elements of Occitan regionalism/nationalism.

THe core of his message seems to be the province vs the metropole. He's a bit of a meme small candidate who does funny interviews and ads, but it would be interesting to see what his program is about.

Also, I have a question for the French, is Lassalle's region Occitania or Basque Country, culturally at least?

Well, actually, he's from Béarn, which is part of the "Occitan-speaking" territory, but not part of the present day Occitanie region. It's not Basque country, because language, and historically it has been more aligned with the history of Aquitaine (Gascogne, Guyenne etc.) than "Occitanie", which has always been more to the East.

Today, Lassalle is quite unclassifiable, he always was a bit of a personal maverick, especially in defending ruralité and his terroir, but a couple of years ago he went on a Tour de France on foot to meet the grassroots people of France everywhere, and since then he has been speaking very harshly against centralism, bureaucracy and even financial capitalism. Sometimes, I've heard him speak and asked myself if it was a member of the PCF or the NPA, seriously. I'm not saying he is actually left-wing now, but I think he's genuine in what he says, and he clearly positions himself in defense of the common people and the vulnerable rurals.

[Tirnam]

Some polls this morning

Ipsos for France Télévisions

Turnout index: 65%

Le Pen: 25%
Macron: 24%
Fillon: 18%
Mélenchon: 14%
Hamon: 12%

Second round
Macron 62%, Le Pen 38%

Honnest: Mélenchon 58% (for the lol: Fillon 13%)
Presidential: Macron 41% (Fillon at 26%, even behind Hamon at 27%)
Innovative: Mélenchon 44%, Macron 43%
Renewal: Macron 47%
Credible: Macron 40%
Sympathetic: Mélenchon, Macron 54%
Understand people like you: Mélenchon 53%
Will keep his promises: Mélenchon 42%

77% say that it is likely that Macron will be President (Delusional 87% of Fillon voters say that Fillon is likely the next President)

Odoxa - popularity
Most liked:
Macron: 45% (+8)
Mélenchon: 40% (+7)
Hamon: 31% (-3)
Le Pen: 29% (+4)
Fillon: 19% (-3)

Most rejected:
Fillon: 60% (+10)
Le Pen: 54% (=)
Hamon: 33% (+5)
Mélenchon: 30% (-3)
Macron: 30% (+4)


How candidates surprised you?
Mélenchon: in good 38%, in bad 9%
Macron: in good 39%, in bad 17%
Hamon: in good 23%, in bad 19%
Le Pen: in good 19%, in bad 15%
Fillon: in good 9%, in bad 57%

[Umengus]

I'm suprised by the consensus in the polls: all polls give the same result. Curious.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Why are people suddenly falling in love with Melenchon? If he becomes the new French left, I will never be able to support it.

[Tirnam]

Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income). Mélenchon has simply a good debate performance (plus a strong rally).

Tracking polls

OpinonWay
Le Pen: 26% (=)
Macron: 24% (=)
Fillon: 20% (=)
Mélenchon: 14% (+1)
Hamon: 10% (-1)

Second round: Macron 62% (+1), Le Pen 38%

Ifop
Macron: 25.5% (=)
Le Pen: 25% (=)
Fillon: 17.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 14% (=)
Hamon: 10.5% (=)

Second round: Macron 60% (-0.5), Le Pen 40%

Mélenchon and Macron don't want to debate on April, 20.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Who is Lassalle? He was a member of MoDem, so I can assume he can be described as a centrist. Is it true? Does he fit any label at all? It also seems he uses elements of Occitan regionalism/nationalism.

To quote hash from aad:

He isn't quite a fruitcake like Cheminade or Asselineau, but he's a rather odd character. He is a shepherd from rural Béarn (Pyrénées), which is an unusual background for a French deputy these days, and he very much likes to be seen as an oddball. In 2003, he randomly stood up and sang the 'Occitan anthem' (in Béarnese) in the National Assembly while Sarkozy was speaking. In 2006, he went on a 39-day hunger strike over a factory closure in his constituency, and claims that the factory owners or something tried to killed him. For most of 2013, he went on a walking tour of France to 'meet citizens' and 'understand their grievances', which has seemingly convinced him that he is the only man in the country world who can save us all -- and apparently in his book, he claims that he was practically greeted by euphoric crowds during this 'tour of France'. Sometime recently, he explained during a parliamentary debate that people made him take several "psycho-technical tests" when he was young and that his IQ was measured as being 'barely above 0' when he was 8 years old. Less picturesquely, he twice met Bashar el-Assad in Syria (in 2015 and 2017), one of those times accompanied by hard-right LR Еди́ная Росси́я deputies Thierry Mariani and Nicolas Dhuicq, and is now saying that he can't say if Assad is good or bad or whether he massacred people. Shockingly, this has made him the new sweetheart of RT and Sputnik.

The above, save the Assad nonsense, doesn't qualify him as overly crazy, but on a recent talk show appearance, he (a) asked psychiatrists in the audience to share their opinions of his mental state and (b) is straight-up certain that he will be elected president, considering his 0% placement in the polls as trivial and justifying his certainty by claiming that he'll win because he's the opposite of Trump (one a millionnaire, the other 'a modest shepherd'). He seemingly lacks any actual ideas, besides "I like talking to people and I am a weird shepherd", suggesting that he would fix unemployment through dialogue and similar stuff. He voted against same-sex marriage in 2013, but said that he voted against because "it was polarizing" but that otherwise he's pretty down with gay marriage and married two women as mayor. He also called right-wing primary candidates a bunch of lowly 'trainees'.

[MAINEiac4434]

Why are people suddenly falling in love with Melenchon? If he becomes the new French left, I will never be able to support it.

Strong debate performance

[Zuza]

Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income).

So Hamon supports basic income, while Mélenchon, who is to the left of Hamon, opposes it?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income).

So Hamon supports basic income, while Mélenchon, who is to the left of Hamon, opposes it?

A lot of leftists view UBI as a sort of Trojan Horse policy that sells itself as an expanded welfare state but also comes from liberalised employment laws and an attack on unions. In Finland, for example the most oppposition has come from the major trade union and the social democrats.

[Tirnam]

Penelope Fillon has been indicted of complicity and concealment of embezzlement of public funds, concealment of misappropriation of social assets, and concealment of aggravated fraud in the case of his supposedly fake jobs.

[Zanas]

Why are people suddenly falling in love with Melenchon? If he becomes the new French left, I will never be able to support it.

Strong debate performance

Not to mention a majority of people are just now starting to pay attention to the whole circus. Up until now it was just all background noise about Fillon's and Le Pen's judicial troubles, but with the first debate the campaign has actually started and people are now aware of at least 5 candidates instead of just 3 or 4.

Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income).

This is obviously false. The main cleavage is that the former has been a minister during the finishing quinquennat, has a whole lot of former ministers or even outgoing ministers and deputies around him as candidates for the législatives, and is trying very hard to appear as different from the outgoing majority whereas he is just the exact same thing and would do the exact same sh**t. The latter is by any means not perfection, but at least he doesn't have Cazeneuve or El Khomri as candidates behind him.

God I hate the PS.

[Tirnam]

Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income).

This is obviously false. The main cleavage is that the former has been a minister during the finishing quinquennat, has a whole lot of former ministers or even outgoing ministers and deputies around him as candidates for the législatives, and is trying very hard to appear as different from the outgoing majority whereas he is just the exact same thing and would do the exact same sh**t. The latter is by any means not perfection, but at least he doesn't have Cazeneuve or El Khomri as candidates behind him.

God I hate the PS.

What you described is an opposition on politics, not ideology, on that level, beside the EU and maybe foreign affairs, Mélenchon and Hamon are practically on the same level.
And we could argue that Hamon vote for a motion of non-confidence against the Valls' government. (And after gets outraged when Valls doesn't want to support him)

[Former President tack50]

Why are people suddenly falling in love with Melenchon? If he becomes the new French left, I will never be able to support it.

Strong debate performance

Not to mention a majority of people are just now starting to pay attention to the whole circus. Up until now it was just all background noise about Fillon's and Le Pen's judicial troubles, but with the first debate the campaign has actually started and people are now aware of at least 5 candidates instead of just 3 or 4.

If that were true wouldn't Hamon have also seen a rise in his polling numbers? (Assuming the 3  "well known ones" were Fillon, Macron and Le Pen)

[Hash]

Hamon's campaign is the RMS Titanic.

[warandwar]

Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income).

This is obviously false. The main cleavage is that the former has been a minister during the finishing quinquennat, has a whole lot of former ministers or even outgoing ministers and deputies around him as candidates for the législatives, and is trying very hard to appear as different from the outgoing majority whereas he is just the exact same thing and would do the exact same sh**t. The latter is by any means not perfection, but at least he doesn't have Cazeneuve or El Khomri as candidates behind him.

God I hate the PS.

What you described is an opposition on politics, not ideology, on that level, beside the EU and maybe foreign affairs, Mélenchon and Hamon are practically on the same level.
And we could argue that Hamon vote for a motion of non-confidence against the Valls' government. (And after gets outraged when Valls doesn't want to support him)

That's absurd dude. They have clearly quite different ideologies. Zanas was entirely talking about hamons ideology.

[Zinneke]

Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income).

This is obviously false. The main cleavage is that the former has been a minister during the finishing quinquennat, has a whole lot of former ministers or even outgoing ministers and deputies around him as candidates for the législatives, and is trying very hard to appear as different from the outgoing majority whereas he is just the exact same thing and would do the exact same sh**t. The latter is by any means not perfection, but at least he doesn't have Cazeneuve or El Khomri as candidates behind him.

God I hate the PS.

What you described is an opposition on politics, not ideology, on that level, beside the EU and maybe foreign affairs, Mélenchon and Hamon are practically on the same level.
And we could argue that Hamon vote for a motion of non-confidence against the Valls' government. (And after gets outraged when Valls doesn't want to support him)

That's absurd dude. They have clearly quite different ideologies. Zanas was entirely talking about hamons ideology.

What are their ideological differences? They were in the same fringe wing of the PS until Mélenchon left. For me its a difference in style rather than politics.

[warandwar]

Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income).

This is obviously false. The main cleavage is that the former has been a minister during the finishing quinquennat, has a whole lot of former ministers or even outgoing ministers and deputies around him as candidates for the législatives, and is trying very hard to appear as different from the outgoing majority whereas he is just the exact same thing and would do the exact same sh**t. The latter is by any means not perfection, but at least he doesn't have Cazeneuve or El Khomri as candidates behind him.

God I hate the PS.

What you described is an opposition on politics, not ideology, on that level, beside the EU and maybe foreign affairs, Mélenchon and Hamon are practically on the same level.
And we could argue that Hamon vote for a motion of non-confidence against the Valls' government. (And after gets outraged when Valls doesn't want to support him)

That's absurd dude. They have clearly quite different ideologies. Zanas was entirely talking about hamons ideology.

What are their ideological differences? They were in the same fringe wing of the PS until Mélenchon left. For me its a difference in style rather than politics.

Ideology and politics are different things. Are you asking about difference in policy or ideology?

[MAINEiac4434]

Why are people suddenly falling in love with Melenchon? If he becomes the new French left, I will never be able to support it.

Strong debate performance

Not to mention a majority of people are just now starting to pay attention to the whole circus. Up until now it was just all background noise about Fillon's and Le Pen's judicial troubles, but with the first debate the campaign has actually started and people are now aware of at least 5 candidates instead of just 3 or 4.

If that were true wouldn't Hamon have also seen a rise in his polling numbers? (Assuming the 3  "well known ones" were Fillon, Macron and Le Pen)

Hamon didn't expand his base while Melenchon began taking it away.

[Devout Centrist]

Hamon's campaign is the RMS Titanic.

And Fillion is the Edmund Fitzgerald.