2017 French Presidential Election

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Serious question: does the average French person know a single individual that is part of En Marche aside from Macron? Because that's going to be the killer thing isn't it? As it is, it's basically becoming a front group for the right of the liberal parties and the right wing of PS.

I think PS have more strength than PvdA, given they still have some ability to get votes in strongholds, and powerful municipal figures (well, mainly Hidalgo but still).

[Zuza]

But PS always was much stronger than PvdA, so at least in the relative terms it's defeat is bigger. Also, I think it has much more chances to suffer a large split in the very near future, and a chance to cease to exist entirely.

[MAINEiac4434]

1. Will Valls endorsement hurt Macron?

2. Will the Socialist Party falter (kind of like the Dutch Labour Party), and if so, will En Marche! take its place?

1. Maybe. I'm inclined to believe that those that dislike Manuel Valls already dislike Emmanuel Macron.

2. Yes, it will falter. But the left-wing parties (Parti de Gauche or Parti Communiste or Front de Gauche) will take the lefties and En Marche ! will take the rest, a bit like how the PvdA support split between GroenLinks and D66.

[parochial boy]

2. Yes, it will falter. But the left-wing parties (Parti de Gauche or Parti Communiste or Front de Gauche) will take the lefties and En Marche ! will take the rest, a bit like how the PvdA support split between GroenLinks and D66.

I can't see that happening. The Parti de Gauche/La France Insoumise is basically a machine for Mélenchon in the way that En Marche! is for Macron, it will die the moment he steps down. And the PCF has long since stopped being at all relevant.

I'm not saying that there won't be a realignment, but the PS has the machine that no-one else on the left really has, I can't see it stopping to be relevant.

[Tirnam]

Last week of polling for Fillon had him just a few points ahead of  Juppe and Sarkozy, and the final result had him well ahead of them. Unless he gained massive momentum due to his electability, there is just one example of the French pollsters underpolling in the Right.

But yes, Fillon had a massive momentum in the last days of the campaign.
- Ipsos had him gaining 18 points in one month
- Ifop in its last poll had a 7 points gain for Fillon in just 3 days.

And also we were in the primary, with a short campaign. And of course it's easier for a right-wing voter to change his minds between right-wing candidates, than it's between a right-wing, centrist, far-right, left-wing, ... candidate

[RogueBeaver]

Looks like next week's debate will be the last before Round 1.

[Tirnam]

Tracking polls, quite stable.

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 25% (=)
Macron: 25% (=)
Fillon: 20% (=)
Mélenchon: 15% (=)
Hamon: 10% (=)

Second round: Macron 64% (=), Le Pen 36%

Ifop
Macron: 26% (=)
Le Pen: 25.5% (=)
Fillon: 17.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 14.5% (+0.5)
Hamon: 10% (=)

Second round: Macron 60% (=), Le Pen 40%

Kantar-Sofres, popularity Among the candidates
1- Mélenchon: 47% (+19)
2- Macron: 41% (+1)
3- Hamon: 36% (+6)
4- Le Pen: 24% (-1)
5- Fillon: 18% (-8)

Outside Juppé (4th, 28%), no right-wing leader in the top 15.

[ApatheticAustrian]

holy melenchon, lol@fillon.

[mencken]

Has anyone polled a Len Pen-Melenchon second round, out of curiosity?

[Tirnam]

Has anyone polled a Len Pen-Melenchon second round, out of curiosity?

Maybe, but we won't know. French laws forbid to publish unrealistic runoff poll.

[Former President tack50]

Has anyone polled a Len Pen-Melenchon second round, out of curiosity?

Iirc there was a poll semi-reciently which had something like 60% Melenchon 40% Le Pen? Can't find the source though, and it probably isn't all that accurate.

Edit: Here it is. 64-36 actually, which doesn't sound realistic at all. Might be between 18-25 year olds though, which would make it more realistic (I don't speak French, so I can't totally confirm that, but it certainly looks that way)

htt p://ww w.ifop.co m/media/poll/3693-1-study_file. pdf

(Delete the spaces manually, can't post links)

[Zuza]

French laws forbid to publish unrealistic runoff poll.

How exactly do they distinguish between realistic and unrealistic runoffs?

[Tirnam]

Probably when someone is within the margin of error to be in the runoff.

[Maxwell]

they should probably stop publishing Fillon v. Le Pen polls then.

[DL]

Has anyone polled a Len Pen-Melenchon second round, out of curiosity?

Maybe, but we won't know. French laws forbid to publish unrealistic runoff poll.

How could you have a law against polling an "unrealistic run-off"? Aren't polling companies free to pose any question they want?

[Tirnam]

they should probably stop publishing Fillon v. Le Pen polls then.

Well, I believe that a majority of pollsters publish only Macron-Le Pen polls now.

Has anyone polled a Len Pen-Melenchon second round, out of curiosity?

Maybe, but we won't know. French laws forbid to publish unrealistic runoff poll.

How could you have a law against polling an "unrealistic run-off"? Aren't polling companies free to pose any question they want?

They can pose any question they want, in fact Hamon insists that polls show him ahead of Le Pen in a runoff, but they can't publish them.
The law said that a second round poll must be published with a first round poll (so the second round poll has to be coherent with the first round poll).
Polls are "supervised" by an independent commission, which has constantly ruled against the publication of unrealistic runoff poll.

[Zinneke]

they should probably stop publishing Fillon v. Le Pen polls then.

Well, I believe that a majority of pollsters publish only Macron-Le Pen polls now.

Has anyone polled a Len Pen-Melenchon second round, out of curiosity?

Maybe, but we won't know. French laws forbid to publish unrealistic runoff poll.

How could you have a law against polling an "unrealistic run-off"? Aren't polling companies free to pose any question they want?

They can pose any question they want, in fact Hamon insists that polls show him ahead of Le Pen in a runoff, but they can't publish them.
The law said that a second round poll must be published with a first round poll (so the second round poll has to be coherent with the first round poll).
Polls are "supervised" by an independent commission, which has constantly ruled against the publication of unrealistic runoff poll.

I'm struggling to see the logic. What do they risk subverting if they publish a run-off poll that is unrealistic?

[Tirnam]

Public warning by the commission. If the polling institute refuse to submit, the commission can decide to engage legal actions.

But the commission and the polling institutes work in cooperation, public warning are rare, and polling institutes follow the recommandations of the commission (as for example, you don't see any "unrealistic" runoff scenario)

[America Needs R'hllor]

they should probably stop publishing Fillon v. Le Pen polls then.

Well, I believe that a majority of pollsters publish only Macron-Le Pen polls now.

Has anyone polled a Len Pen-Melenchon second round, out of curiosity?

Maybe, but we won't know. French laws forbid to publish unrealistic runoff poll.

How could you have a law against polling an "unrealistic run-off"? Aren't polling companies free to pose any question they want?

They can pose any question they want, in fact Hamon insists that polls show him ahead of Le Pen in a runoff, but they can't publish them.
The law said that a second round poll must be published with a first round poll (so the second round poll has to be coherent with the first round poll).
Polls are "supervised" by an independent commission, which has constantly ruled against the publication of unrealistic runoff poll.

A very bad rule, in my opinion. Really restricts the freedom of pollsters without a reason good enough to do such a thing.

[Zinneke]

Public warning by the commission. If the polling institute refuse to submit, the commission can decide to engage legal actions.

But the commission and the polling institutes work in cooperation, public warning are rare, and polling institutes follow the recommandations of the commission (as for example, you don't see any "unrealistic" runoff scenario)

By what do they risk I meant also what potential impact on the race?

[DavidB.]

A very bad rule, in my opinion. Really restricts the freedom of pollsters without a reason good enough to do such a thing.

Yeah, this is absolutely ridiculous.

[FredLindq]

Any signs/chances that Fillon bounces back or is he toast?!

[mvd10]

Any signs/chances that Fillon bounces back or is he toast?!

There's still three weeks left, but it doesn't look like he's bouncing back. He's toast unless Macron seriously screws up (and even then Fillon probably still is toast).

[Gustaf]

There's a major difference, one which should be pretty obvious, between polling for an election which will draw some 30 million voters and a primary, even a high turnout one, which draws at most 4-5 million voters.

I'm pretty confused.

You are contesting that the same phenomenon cannot have a similar skewering of polling of two separate events, especially as the two populations overlap?

Also, in general, population size has no effect on the accuracy of their samples, variability does. There are exceptions, but something tells me 4-5million is x enough times larger than their samples for their sample to not have potentially missed out on a key margin. So that systemic error is rectified. Some other one must have been present. Shy right-wingers? who knows. I still remain a pessimist, maybe that's me systemic error in general.

A primary electorate is, I think, generally harder to pin down than a general election electorate. Secondly, primary voters are a lot more fluid since they're picking between much more similar candidates than a general election voter.

[Tirnam]

Tracking polls

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 24% (-1)
Macron: 24% (-1)
Fillon: 19% (-1)
Mélenchon: 15% (=)
Hamon: 11% (+1)

Second round: Macron 63% (-1), Le Pen 37%

Ifop
Macron: 26% (=)
Le Pen: 25% (-0.5)
Fillon: 17.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 15% (+0.5)
Hamon: 10% (=)

Second round: Macron 60% (=), Le Pen 40%

Mélenchon comes really close of Fillon. I think it will be really difficult for Mélenchon to go beyond 15% but who knows ...