2017 French Presidential Election

[Hash]

The issue with Ségo wasn't her ideology (insofar as she actually had a coherent one, which is questionable) but that she was a fruitcake. 

[Zinneke]

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[Tirnam]

Royal still ran a better campaign than Hamon. Like Hamon she didn't had the support of the party but at least she had succeeded in galvanizing a part of the electorate.

Macron met with Estrosi today (President of PACA region), a "republican welcome to a candidate" but Fillon did not like it.
Estrosi was booed yesterday in a Fillon's rally (Fillon did nothing to stop it), and Fillon expects the same booing against Estrosi in Nice (Estrosi's city) in two weeks ("It will be tough for him").

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

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What

[Tender Branson]

Not that it means a lot, but Le Pen has reached 47% for the first time against Fillon in the runoff.

Against Macron she's still around 40%.

[Zinneke]

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What

Royale's style of campaigning bordered on televangelism. She'd get people to repeat words, then syllables like the ones above.

[StateBoiler]

Corsican on another board I'm on. He did this last election and I found it pretty funny.

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[Skill and Chance]

I wonder if there will be a "Shy LePen" effect here?  The good news for her opponents is that there are 2 rounds in France, so she would lose the element of surprise and Macron or Fillon could adjust their runoff strategies accordingly.

Macron just radiates Hillary Clinton vibes to me.  I wouldn't be surprised if he blows it and gets 3rd in the first round to be honest.  If French voters can swallow Fillon's scandal enough to put him into the runoff, I think he will win.

[mvd10]

I wonder if there will be a "Shy LePen" effect here?  The good news for her opponents is that there are 2 rounds in France, so she would lose the element of surprise and Macron or Fillon could adjust their runoff strategies accordingly.

Macron just radiates Hillary Clinton vibes to me.  I wouldn't be surprised if he blows it and gets 3rd in the first round to be honest.  If French voters can swallow Fillon's scandal enough to put him into the runoff, I think he will win.

I agree that Fillon probably would beat Le Pen, but don't forget that he is at 18% in the polls while Macron and Le Pen are at 25%. It would take a large polling error or a Macron scandal to close that gap. Fillon's voters probably are the most likely to turn out and actually vote but I don't think turnout is going to be enough for Fillon. And apparently Macron is ahead of Le Pen in the polls, and Fillon doesn't stand a chance against Macron in a run-off. Last poll I saw was 66-34 for Macron.

[parochial boy]

A "shy Le Pen" will probably be limited to a couple of points at most. Remember that the FN have been polled in a lot of elections over recent years, and the polling has not generally been too outrageously inaccurate.

The real wildcard is still going to be Macron. He, and En Marche! have never stood before, so pollsters don't have any reliable data on who will actually turn out to vote for him that they can use to weight their polls, and no reliable indicators like people who have previously voted for or against him, so there is a potential that his numbers are way off.The fact that he is consistently around 25% is a little concerning I think, as it would seem like all the pollsters may be forcing that consensus a little bit, in reality there should be the odd poll showing him outside of that very narrow range.

I still think he should win a run off without any issues, it would basically take Fillon's supporters all rallying round Le Pen; and Hamon and Melenchon's either abstaining or voting blanc in massive numbers for Le Pen to wind up winning.

[DL]

I wonder if there will be a "Shy LePen" effect here?  The good news for her opponents is that there are 2 rounds in France, so she would lose the element of surprise and Macron or Fillon could adjust their runoff strategies accordingly.

Macron just radiates Hillary Clinton vibes to me.  I wouldn't be surprised if he blows it and gets 3rd in the first round to be honest.  If French voters can swallow Fillon's scandal enough to put him into the runoff, I think he will win.

I don't see ANY resemblance whatsoever between Macron and Hillary Clinton. Clinton had been a public figure for 25 who had vast amounts of political baggage. She was always quite unpopular personally with high negatives etc... in contrast Macron is a novelty who has never run for public office before. The people who support him see him as an fresh new face who represents novelty. He has realty positive overall approval numbers. If he ends up falling short of expectations when the votes are counted he will be more like Nick Clegg in the 2010 UK election than Hillary Clinton

[peterthlee]

I wonder if there will be a "Shy LePen" effect here?  The good news for her opponents is that there are 2 rounds in France, so she would lose the element of surprise and Macron or Fillon could adjust their runoff strategies accordingly.

Macron just radiates Hillary Clinton vibes to me.  I wouldn't be surprised if he blows it and gets 3rd in the first round to be honest.  If French voters can swallow Fillon's scandal enough to put him into the runoff, I think he will win.

I don't see ANY resemblance whatsoever between Macron and Hillary Clinton. Clinton had been a public figure for 25 who had vast amounts of political baggage. She was always quite unpopular personally with high negatives etc... in contrast Macron is a novelty who has never run for public office before. The people who support him see him as an fresh new face who represents novelty. He has realty positive overall approval numbers. If he ends up falling short of expectations when the votes are counted he will be more like Nick Clegg in the 2010 UK election than Hillary Clinton

He is, and will be, a successful version of James Soong, who was widely anticipated to be the heir to the Taiwanese presidency in 2000, until a gate which swayed his votes to the incompetent Lien Chan, ending up Chen Shui-bien winning the race with only a <40% plurality.

There are rumours on the island that if James Soong ascended to the presidency KMT would not even be a thing in 2004, so KMT must try their best to make him lose. Macron has virtually no baggage compared with Soong. By 2022, PS will be his party under his remote control.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Macron just radiates Hillary Clinton vibes to me. 

on the contrary.

valls would have been much more like hillary, with the difference, that he seems to be much more principled and there aren't enough push-forces behind him in france, to get him into round 2.

macron is a charismatic outsider and a new force, while le pen is politically old and her ideas and her presence are rusty and well-known.

[Tender Branson]

Macron just radiates Hillary Clinton vibes to me. 

on the contrary.

valls would have been much more like hillary, with the difference, that he seems to be much more principled and there aren't enough push-forces behind him in france, to get him into round 2.

macron is a charismatic outsider and a new force, while le pen is politically old and her ideas and her presence are rusty and well-known.

Yeah, comparing Macron with Hillary is odd. She was a terribly flawed candidate from the start with low favourable ratings. Macron can be compared with a younger version of Alexander Van der Bellen. Macron should get at least what the polls show. The question is if Le Pen underpolls or not. I guess not.

[Tender Branson]

New "Terrain" poll showing Melenchon in 3rd place:

[Tirnam]

Tracking polls

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 25% (+1)
Macron: 24% (=)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 15% (=)
Hamon: 11% (=)

Second round: Macron 63% (=), Le Pen 37%

Ifop
Macron: 26% (=)
Le Pen: 25.5% (+0.5)
Fillon: 17% (-0.5, all time low in this poll)
Mélenchon: 15% (=)
Hamon: 10% (=)

Second round: Macron 60% (=), Le Pen 40%

Also, everybody speaks this year about high uncertainty of the voters and possibly a record high abstention.
Ifop tonight - Turnout: 66%, Certainty of the vote: 70%
Ifop, early April 2012 - Turnout: 68%, Certainty of the vote: 72%

[Zuza]

New "Terrain" poll showing Melenchon in 3rd place:

Is this a reliable poll? All others give Melenchon only 15 %.

[rob in cal]

  A Melenchon vs Macron runoff might be interesting. 

[Famous Mortimer]

Macron just radiates Hillary Clinton vibes to me. 

on the contrary.

valls would have been much more like hillary, with the difference, that he seems to be much more principled and there aren't enough push-forces behind him in france, to get him into round 2.

macron is a charismatic outsider and a new force, while le pen is politically old and her ideas and her presence are rusty and well-known.

Yeah, comparing Macron with Hillary is odd. She was a terribly flawed candidate from the start with low favourable ratings. Macron can be compared with a younger version of Alexander Van der Bellen. Macron should get at least what the polls show. The question is if Le Pen underpolls or not. I guess not.

Macron is more the Obama type: Mostly the same as Hillary ideological but for some unknown reason people think he represents change.

[Bumaye]

  A Melenchon vs Macron runoff might be interesting. 

 
 
With all due respect for JLM, but Macron would most likely stomp him. The Hamon votes would be shared rather equally and probably about the same for Le Pen with a lot staying home. The Fillion votes though would probably go 90-10 towards Macron. That plus his higher share of the electorate compared to Melenchon and you would probably have something like a 65-35 for Macron. Though I think JLM could win a 2nd round against Marine but that would be a very long night that I really don't hope for.

[MAINEiac4434]

Macron just radiates Hillary Clinton vibes to me. 

on the contrary.

valls would have been much more like hillary, with the difference, that he seems to be much more principled and there aren't enough push-forces behind him in france, to get him into round 2.

macron is a charismatic outsider and a new force, while le pen is politically old and her ideas and her presence are rusty and well-known.

Yeah, comparing Macron with Hillary is odd. She was a terribly flawed candidate from the start with low favourable ratings. Macron can be compared with a younger version of Alexander Van der Bellen. Macron should get at least what the polls show. The question is if Le Pen underpolls or not. I guess not.

Macron is more the Obama type: Mostly the same as Hillary ideological but for some unknown reason people think he represents change.

Because he's not running under the PS or LR banner.

[Barnes]

Has UDI's (totally useless) support gone to another candidate or are they still cross that they didn't force Fillon out?

[parochial boy]

There have been lots of defections to support Macron, but the party is backing Fillon again. Lol "centrists", I never understand why France is full of these joke parties that are basically just annexes of the bigger one - UDI for LR; PRG for the PS...

[Tirnam]

Poll Ipsos for Cévipof and Le Monde
Sample: 9,460

Macron: 25% (-1, since mid-March)
Le Pen: 25% (-2)
Fillon: 17.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 15% (+3.5)
Hamon: 10% (-2.5)

Second round: Macron 61% (=), Le Pen 39%

Certainty of voting: 66% (=), highest for En Marche's supporters (79%)
Certainty of the vote: 64% (+5), Le Pen: 82%, Fillon: 75%, Macron 61%, Mélenchon 60%, Hamon 52%

For popularity
Macron still the most liked (44% dislike, 30% moderate, 25% like)
Mélenchon just behind (47% dislike, 29% moderate, 23% like)
Fillon still the most disliked (67% dislike, 16% moderate, 16% like)

And political parties, likelihood of voting
En Marche: 24% likely, 27% moderately likely, 45% not likely
LR: 22% likely, 18% moderately likely, 55% not likely
PS: 20% likely, 22% moderately likely, 55% not likely
FN: 23% likely, 11% moderately likely, 62% not likely


I think it's hard to find any reason to Fillon to re-bounce now. Unless a major surprise in the next 19 days.

[Barnes]

There have been lots of defections to support Macron, but the party is backing Fillon again. Lol "centrists", I never understand why France is full of these joke parties that are basically just annexes of the bigger one - UDI for LR; PRG for the PS...

Well sycophants do as sychophants must!