2017 French Presidential Election

[Antonio the Sixth]

So it looks like my dream might very well come true. That's not a good thing.

[Tender Branson]

That looks about right.

[warandwar]

I was like 88% Melanchon 85% Arthaud/Poutou, 83% Hamon.

Poutou is by far the most likeable candidate for me.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So it looks like my dream might very well come true. That's not a good thing.

It's more and more shaping up to be a mirror of the Austrian 1st round ...

Le Pen = Hofer (or even closer: Strache), the established candidates from the Far-Right
Macron = Griss (the unused centrist candidates)
Melenchon = Van der Bellen (the rising leftist shootingstars)
Fillon = Khol (the used candidates from the disgraced center-right)
Hamon = Hundstorfer (the used candidates from the disgraced center-left)
Dupont = Lugner (the weird right-liberal candidates)

There is one major difference between Austria 1.0 and France 1.0 though:

Fillon has a better standing than Khol did (17-20% vs. 11%), so Le Pen will not reach 35% like Hofer, but will top out at 28% at best.

Except for the fact that the far-right candidate will come in first to loose in the second round it's barely anything like the Austrian presidential race. You just always need to find a way to bring Austrian politics into everything.

The fact that you put an equal sign between the far-left demagogue Melenchon and the respected centrist Green Van Der Bellen show how far-fetched you have to to be make it "the same", and even then it doesn't work because Melenchon is no where close to come in second at the moment, still polling around 15-17% in most polls and thus in fourth place.

[Tender Branson]

So it looks like my dream might very well come true. That's not a good thing.

It's more and more shaping up to be a mirror of the Austrian 1st round ...

Le Pen = Hofer (or even closer: Strache), the established candidates from the Far-Right
Macron = Griss (the unused centrist candidates)
Melenchon = Van der Bellen (the rising leftist shootingstars)
Fillon = Khol (the used candidates from the disgraced center-right)
Hamon = Hundstorfer (the used candidates from the disgraced center-left)
Dupont = Lugner (the weird right-liberal candidates)

There is one major difference between Austria 1.0 and France 1.0 though:

Fillon has a better standing than Khol did (17-20% vs. 11%), so Le Pen will not reach 35% like Hofer, but will top out at 28% at best.

Except for the fact that the far-right candidate will come in first to loose in the second round it's barely anything like the Austrian presidential race. You just always need to find a way to bring Austrian politics into everything.

The fact that you put an equal sign between the far-left demagogue Melenchon and the respected centrist Green Van Der Bellen show how far-fetched you have to to be make it "the same", and even then it doesn't work because Melenchon is no where close to come in second at the moment, still polling around 15-17% in most polls and thus in fourth place.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obsessive%E2%80%93compulsive_disorder

[Velasco]

How much you agree with the candidates:

Benoit Hamon 77%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 75%

Philippe Poutou 72%

Nathalie Arthaud 71%

Emmanuel Macron 64%

Jacques Cheminade 61%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 60%

François Fillon 52%

Marine Le Pen 52%

(Excessive "somewhat agree" and "somewhat disagree" replies; maybe I'm a bit like BFM)

Melenchon = Van der Bellen (the rising leftist shootingstars)

They resemble each other like an egg to a chestnut

[parochial boy]

Hamon 77%
Arthaud 77%
Melenchon 73%
Poutou 72%
Cheminade 65%
Macron 56%
Dupont-Aignan 46%
Le Pen 44%
Fillon 40%

Dissapointing to see that Poutou isn't taking off in the polls after the debate

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'd say the "Van der Bellen of France" is indeed Emmanuel Macron. Not only because it will be his task to stop the far-right candidate in the presidential run-off, but also because they seem to be the most similar candidates ideologically.

Van der Bellen also ran as a nominally independent candidate, because ideologically he stands a bit to the right of his own party, while Macron is independent because he's more right-wing than his former party, the Socialists.

[Sorenroy]

I honestly don't follow international politics very closely, but you can't dangle a poll in front of my face and expect me not to take it. There were several questions I put down "I don't know" for, including all of the questions asking about the candidates (do you trust so and so, etc.), and several that I probably would have answered differently if I knew more about French politics. That being said, here are my results:

Hamon — 71%
Poutou — 62%
Melenchon — 60%
Arthaud — 60%
Macron — 59%
Le Pen — 53%
Fillon — 51%
Dupont-Aignan — 45%
Cheminade — 42%

[Middle-aged Europe]

My results:

Hamon 66%
Arthaud 63%
Macron 60%
Poutou 58%
Mélenchon 54%
Fillon 51%
Cheminade 50%
Le Pen 47%
Dupont-Aignan 47%

[mvd10]

Fillon 69%
Macron 53%
Dupont-Aignan 51%
Cheminade 42%
Hamon 38%
Le Pen 37%
Arthaud 34%
Poutou 33%
Mélenchon 28%

[SunSt0rm]

Macron 63%
Fillon 60%
Dupont-Aignan 50%
Hamon 49%
Arthaud 49%
Poutou 48%
Le Pen 44%
Cheminade 41%
Melenchon 39%

[Tintrlvr]

Hahahaha:

Macron: 65%
Arthaud: 62%
Poutou: 55%
Hamon: 54%
Fillon: 53%
Cheminade: 49%
Melenchon: 43%
Dupont-Aignan: 42%
Le Pen: 38%

I'm either a liberal internationalist or a hardcore communist. I don't even know how that happened, but it placed me as super-social-liberal but just left-of-center (about right), which is far from everyone, so I guess it's not a big surprise.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Macron 72%
Hamon 61%
Arthaud 59%
Poutou 58%
Fillon 54%
Melenchon 51%
Cheminade 49%
Dupont-Aignan 48%
Le Pen 36%

Pretty much as expected.

[Kringla Heimsins]

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 82%
Benoit Hamon 78%
Philippe Poutou 77%
Nathalie Arthaud 72%
Jacques Cheminade 66%
Marine Le Pen 53%
Emmanuel Macron 51%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 51%
François Fillon 46%

Weird that NDA is that low, I actually kinda like him.
Also, sad that Asselineau and Lassalle were not in the compass.

[Zinneke]

Hahahaha:

Macron: 65%
Arthaud: 62%
Poutou: 55%
Hamon: 54%
Fillon: 53%
Cheminade: 49%
Melenchon: 43%
Dupont-Aignan: 42%
Le Pen: 38%

I'm either a liberal internationalist or a hardcore communist. I don't even know how that happened, but it placed me as super-social-liberal but just left-of-center (about right), which is far from everyone, so I guess it's not a big surprise.

I had something similar. Its just sh**tty algorithms in the case of the Trotskyites, plus I think the fact that I said Macron had more chance of winning/ was more competent.

[Barnes]

Hamon: 74%
Arthaud: 74%
Poutou: 69%
Mélenchon: 66%
Macron: 65%
Cheminade: 56%
Dupont-Aignan: 53%
Fillon: 49%
Le Pen: 45%

It's a shame that Hamon is polling so dreadfully this year, as in a more normal election, I'd back him without a second thought.

[Vosem]

Amusingly, I got LePen and Melenchon dead last, even after all the cranks.

Fillon: 61%
Macron: 50%
Dupont-Aignan: 46%
Hamon: 42%
Cheminade: 38%
Poutou: 37%
Arthaud: 36%
Le Pen: 35%
Melenchon: 32%

I applied weights, but the numbers barely shifted (Poutou, Arthaud, and Melenchon all fell, with the first two falling behind Le Pen even though she barely declined to 34; while Fillon, Macron, and Dupont-Aignan all surged but stayed in the same order).

Would still vote Macron, though.

[jaichind]

Fillon: 59%
Dupont-Aignan: 49%
Le Pen: 45%
Macron: 40%
Cheminade: 35%
Poutou: 27%
Hamon: 26%
Melenchon: 24%
Arthaud: 23%

[Mike88]

Fillon: 64%
Macron: 60%
Dupont-Aignan: 51%
Hamon: 50%
Cheminade: 46%
Le Pen: 44%
Mélenchon: 39%
Arthaud: 39%
Poutou: 38%

[Zanas]

Just a quick word : in 2012, Mélenchon had already climbed up to 17%. But it was in only one poll. This time around, he seems to really be closing in on the leading trio. I would still advise to be careful about those figures. I'd reckon you'll have to take a couple of points from his polling numbers to get his actual voting score. A number of people I know and like, who are somewhat clever human beings, want to vote Mélenchon but are still afraid of a Fillon-Le Pen runoff and will end up voting Macron to avoid that, at least with the present situation.

[Hnv1]

My results are quite bizarre and I was far off everyone on the chart.

60% Fillon
55% Macron
52% Hamon
43% La pen
41% melenchon

I would vote Macron if I were French

[Zanas]

Here are mine :

Poutou 82%
Mélenchon 81%
Hamon 79%
Arthaud 79%
Cheminade 66%
Macron 60%
Dupont-Aignan 54%
Le Pen 49%
Fillon 43%

which is pretty much exactly how I'd rank them in order of who I agree with, except of course Cheminade who really isn't anywhere near his position on this graph. On the graph, I end up just between Poutou and Hamon, up there on the left, but I've been decided to vote Mélenchon for a while now.

[Bumaye]

It's funny, I always feel like I'm doing "good" in these polls. Did a similar one for the German state of Schleswig-Holstein the other day and had the CDU down at 25%. In the one for Baden-Würtemberg before the last election I had Die Linke at 96,2% - I was virtually a walking Die Linke program.  
  
Well, here are my results. I expected Hamon to be first but then again I have no idea about Arthaud:  
  
Arthaud: 78%  
Hamon: 76%  
Poutou: 73%  
Mélenchon: 70%  
Macron: 62%  
Chiminade: 55%  
Dupont-Aigner: 49%  
Fillon: 45%  
Le Pen: 44%  
  
Somewhat funny that beautiful flawless Emmanuel is rather low in this while on the political landscape thingy my point is basically on his.  
  

[MAINEiac4434]

It's funny, I always feel like I'm doing "good" in these polls. Did a similar one for the German state of Schleswig-Holstein the other day and had the CDU down at 25%. In the one for Baden-Würtemberg before the last election I had Die Linke at 96,2% - I was virtually a walking Die Linke program.  
  
Well, here are my results. I expected Hamon to be first but then again I have no idea about Arthaud:  
  
Arthaud: 78%  
Hamon: 76%  
Poutou: 73%  
Mélenchon: 70%  
Macron: 62%  
Chiminade: 55%  
Dupont-Aigner: 49%  
Fillon: 45%  
Le Pen: 44%  
  
Somewhat funny that beautiful flawless Emmanuel is rather low in this while on the political landscape thingy my point is basically on his.  
  

Arthaud's the candidate for Lutte Ouvrier - Workers' Struggle. It's a Trotskyist party.