2017 French Presidential Election

[Zinneke]

I see Le Pen is rolling out some tried and tested Holocaust denialism today...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/politics/articles/2017-04-09/le-pen-says-france-not-responsible-for-nazi-s-vel-d-hiv-round-up

No she's not. She said she believed the French were not responsible for rounding up Jewish citizens for the Germans. That's not denial of the Holocaust. That's denial that France did anything to contribute to it.

As the article says, she was wrong, but what she said was nothing close to Holocaust denial.

Which is a lie, Vichy France willing supported the Third Reich and aided in the deportation and extermination of Jewish people.

She didn't deny this.

She said France as a national conscious is not responsible for La Raffle.
France's elected chamber gave Pétain full executive powers.
There were also a large number French people who collaborated.

As a whole, if you want to be a jingoist about your own national history, You can't just pick and choose which events suit your historical narrative as to what constitutes action by your national consciousness and what constitutes actions by the individuals responsible. Its like the Belgians here who say Congo was the King's property ergo it wasnt our fault, why should we care, etc. Complete hypocrisy.

 if you are so proud of your flag, you accept the blood spilt on behalf of it too.

@pariochial, i am on my phone so its hard to google but a good show i reccomend is atelier du pouvoir on France Culture. There is an episode on it called "Dans la tête de Jean-Marie Le Pen" where he and an FN historian discuss the formation of the party, as well as his interpretation of WW2 history.

[SunSt0rm]

Opinionway

Le Pen 24% (-1%)
Macron 23% (-1%)
Fillon 19% (-1%)
Melenchon 18 (+2%)
Hamon 9% (-1%)

[Tirnam]

My feeling of a stabilization of the race (for now) seems to be confirm by this poll done during the weekend, but it's OpinionWay, which was always a little bit off compared with other polls.

Médipart: Fillon lied again, his wife began to work with him in the National Assembly in 1982, not in 1986 as he claimed (he first said he hired her in 1998).

[RogueBeaver]

Sarko plotting another comeback and believes Fillon is screwed. If Fillon loses, Sarko might lead the legislative campaign that if victorious could see a close associate (or maybe Sarko himself) become PM. Ultimate goal: another presidential run in 2022?

[mvd10]

Sarkozy really is delusional. I don't think he would have been doing any better than Fillon if he were the nominee. No way he is going to defeat Macron in his honeymoon.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sarko plotting another comeback and believes Fillon is screwed. If Fillon loses, Sarko might lead the legislative campaign that if victorious could see a close associate (or maybe Sarko himself) become PM. Ultimate goal: another presidential run in 2022?

Way to make sure FBM is a two-term President!

[Blair]

The UK press are starting to talk about Melenchon; and it's leading to similar articles that I saw in 2012 where people said that Hollande winning was a good sign for Miliband (but obvs for Corbyn now)

[Antonio the Sixth]

The UK press are starting to talk about Melenchon; and it's leading to similar articles that I saw in 2012 where people said that Hollande winning was a good sign for Miliband (but obvs for Corbyn now)

That's terrible news for Ed Miliband.

[Donerail]

Why hasn't Poutou dropped and endorsed Mélenchon? I understand where it wouldn't matter if he didn't look likely to win, but now that he's breaking 20 that extra 2% could go a long way.

[Hash]

The easiest way to understand the vagaries of French politics is to keep in mind that (a) with very few exceptions, every single French politician of national stature is an arrogant egomaniac who believes that he/she is a truly incredible genius and that everybody else is a nincompoop, and (b) the presidential election is the most important election in France by miles (especially post-2000) and there is a huge incentive for every party to 'get counted'. Once you understand these two facts, you will understand why French politics works the way it does.

Alternatively, you can do like I do and treat French politics the same way I treat Colombian or Paraguayan politics.

[Zinneke]

Why hasn't Poutou dropped and endorsed Mélenchon? I understand where it wouldn't matter if he didn't look likely to win, but now that he's breaking 20 that extra 2% could go a long way.

Sectarianism.

Also, Poutou indicated that his official stance was not to endorse Hollande back in 2012*, and specifically the NPA (mainly composed of the old LCR) want nothing to do with concepts like a Mitterandiste united Left.

*He still ended calling to vote against Sarkozy.

[MAINEiac4434]

Why hasn't Poutou dropped and endorsed Mélenchon? I understand where it wouldn't matter if he didn't look likely to win, but now that he's breaking 20 that extra 2% could go a long way.

Poutou has like 2%. And most of his support would go to Arthaud.

[parochial boy]

Remember that Yannick Jadot dropped out in favour of Hamon, fat load of good that did. No-one is going to drop at this point, period.

[MaxQue]

Remember that Yannick Jadot dropped out in favour of Hamon, fat load of good that did. No-one is going to drop at this point, period.

Well, EELV got a deal for Législatives and a refund by the PS of some of their campaign expenses.

[Zanas]

Nobody drops after the official slate of candidates has been established. Period. So stop speculating about what if X or Y dropped or why doesn't Z or K drop. It's not a thing we do. Learn the rules if you want to participate in this carnival.

[Donerail]

Nobody drops after the official slate of candidates has been established. Period. So stop speculating about what if X or Y dropped or why doesn't Z or K drop. It's not a thing we do. Learn the rules if you want to participate in this carnival.

Oh chill out zanas, it's a simple question (and, given that one left-wing minor candidate dropped out to endorse another candidate less than two months ago, a naturally occurring one). Hash answered it more than adequately. No need to get all high and mighty about it.

[Zinneke]

Nobody drops after the official slate of candidates has been established. Period. So stop speculating about what if X or Y dropped or why doesn't Z or K drop. It's not a thing we do. Learn the rules if you want to participate in this carnival.

Oh chill out zanas, it's a simple question (and, given that one left-wing minor candidate dropped out to endorse another candidate less than two months ago, a naturally occurring one). Hash answered it more than adequately. No need to get all high and mighty about it.

I think Hash's answer applies more to Sarkozy than to a guy who is a testimonial candidate.

[Former President tack50]

The UK press are starting to talk about Melenchon; and it's leading to similar articles that I saw in 2012 where people said that Hollande winning was a good sign for Miliband (but obvs for Corbyn now)

Pretty sure nothing will come out of it. Hell, does Corbyn even have a chance of forcing a hung parliament? (let alone winning or forming a majority government)

[Blair]

The UK press are starting to talk about Melenchon; and it's leading to similar articles that I saw in 2012 where people said that Hollande winning was a good sign for Miliband (but obvs for Corbyn now)

Pretty sure nothing will come out of it. Hell, does Corbyn even have a chance of forcing a hung parliament? (let alone winning or forming a majority government)

At this stage we'd be happy to keep 200 seats, but yeah my point was that it's just leading the same usual crap comparison of completely different political situations.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All this tells us is that British political journalists are stupid and self-obsessed (but we knew that anyway)...

[SunSt0rm]

Seems to stabilize now

Elabe
Le Pen 23% (-0.5%)
Macron 23% (-0.5%)
Fillon 19%
Melenchon 17%
Hamon 10% (+1%)

Certain of vote
Melenchon 65% (+4%)
Hamon 54% (-7%)
Macron 73% (+6%)
Fillon 74% (-4%)
Le Pen 83% (+2%)

Run off scenarios

[Tirnam]

Tracking polls

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 24% (=)
Macron: 23% (=)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 18% (=)
Hamon: 8% (-1)

Second round
Macron 63% (+1), Le Pen 37%

Ifop
Le Pen: 24% (=)
Macron: 23% (=)
Fillon: 19% (+0.5)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (+0.5)
Hamon: 8.5% (-0.5)

Second round
Macron 58.5% (+0.5), Le Pen 41.5%

Yes, it seems to stabilize. Ifop maybe a little off for the second round.

Update with a new poll
Ipsos, for France Télévisions

Macron: 24% (=, since March 27)
Le Pen: 24% (-1)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (+4.5)
Fillon: 18% (=)
Hamon: 8% (-4)

Second round
Macron 62% (=), Le Pen 38%

[Umengus]

Tracking polls

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 24% (=)
Macron: 23% (=)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 18% (=)
Hamon: 8% (-1)

Second round
Macron 63% (+1), Le Pen 37%

Ifop
Le Pen: 24% (=)
Macron: 23% (=)
Fillon: 19% (+0.5)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (+0.5)
Hamon: 8.5% (-0.5)

Second round
Macron 58.5% (+0.5), Le Pen 41.5%

Yes, it seems to stabilize. Ifop maybe a little off for the second round.

Update with a new poll
Ipsos, for France Télévisions

Macron: 24% (=, since March 27)
Le Pen: 24% (-1)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (+4.5)
Fillon: 18% (=)
Hamon: 8% (-4)

Second round
Macron 62% (=), Le Pen 38%

[SunSt0rm]

Tracking polls

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 24% (=)
Macron: 23% (=)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 18% (=)
Hamon: 8% (-1)

Second round
Macron 63% (+1), Le Pen 37%

Ifop
Le Pen: 24% (=)
Macron: 23% (=)
Fillon: 19% (+0.5)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (+0.5)
Hamon: 8.5% (-0.5)

Second round
Macron 58.5% (+0.5), Le Pen 41.5%

Yes, it seems to stabilize. Ifop maybe a little off for the second round.

Update with a new poll
Ipsos, for France Télévisions

Macron: 24% (=, since March 27)
Le Pen: 24% (-1)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (+4.5)
Fillon: 18% (=)
Hamon: 8% (-4)

Second round
Macron 62% (=), Le Pen 38%

Some interesting stats from Ipsos about second choices, suprised few of Fillon and Le Pen electorate see each other as ideal second choice

Melenchon:
Hamon 35%
Macron 21%
Poutou 10%
Le Pen 6%

Hamon:
Melenchon 53%
Macron 27%

Macron:
Melenchon 27%
Hamon 21%
Fillon 19%
Le Pen 9%

Fillon:
Macron 56%
Melenchon 14%
Le Pen 9%

Le Pen:
Melenchon 29%
Dupont-Aignan 18%
Macron 14%
Fillon 8%

[DL]

I'd like to meet some of the 14% of Fillon voters who have Melenchon as their second choice