2017 French Presidential Election

[SunSt0rm]

Do you guys think turnout will be less than 70% as predicted in the polls now? whereas in other years it was it was much higher, 80% or more like 2007 and 2012. And the high turnout in the Netherlands suprised everyone. Who would benefit if turnout turns out to be a higher, lets say 75-80%? My sense says Macron and Melenchon, but I dont know

[Barnes]

I can't think of any major polling error in France that would lead us to doubt the polling trend here, and to be clear, we're looking at a situation where four candidates are separated by four points, so any fluctuation should not be a surprise or shock.

Personally, I'd be very surprised if turnout went below 65% but I could see it in the low 70s definitely. Now who would be assisted by a higher poll, I don't really know.

[Tintrlvr]

The polls were way off in 2002 (both overstating Jospin and understating J-M Le Pen), so it is certainly possible that they will be off again. I believe in 2007 the polls substantially overstated J-M Le Pen also (perhaps as a overreaction to 2002), so it is not guaranteed that an error in FN's polling will necessarily be to M Le Pen's benefit. Melenchon's support was also somewhat overstated in polling in 2012 (he got 11% but was polling mostly in the 13-15% range).

[Barnes]

I just thought of the 2002 example when I finished posting.

That is true is a sense but the last polls before the first round had Jospin and Le Pen off by two points in either direction, which, as I said could easily happen hear. The other instances of Melenchon underperforming and Le Pen overperforming in 2012 are with the relatively same standard deviation.

My point being, if they top four (but in reality I'd say the top three) finish in a different order that shouldn't be surprising or unprecedented with small differences between tightly-bound contests. 

[Tirnam]

Poll Harris Interactive

Macron: 24%
Le Pen: 22%
Fillon: 20%
Mélenchon: 19%
Hamon: 8%

Second round:
Macron 67% - Le Pen 33%
Mélenchon 64% - Le Pen 36%
Fillon 58% - Le Pen 42%

Another quite bad poll for Le Pen.

[parochial boy]

Iirc, before the left primary,  melenchon was in the mid to high teens and Hamon was in single figures. So its prettt funny thats where we're now back to.

Fillon is probably getting a bit of swing back, as natural LR voters end up moving back to him from Le Pen or Macron.

[Devout Centrist]

Poll Harris Interactive

Macron: 24%
Le Pen: 22%
Fillon: 20%
Mélenchon: 19%
Hamon: 8%

Second round:
Macron 67% - Le Pen 33%
Mélenchon 64% - Le Pen 36%
Fillon 58% - Le Pen 42%

Another quite bad poll for Le Pen.

Damn, that is terrifying for Panzergirl

[Maxwell]

Poll Harris Interactive

Macron: 24%
Le Pen: 22%
Fillon: 20%
Mélenchon: 19%
Hamon: 8%

Second round:
Macron 67% - Le Pen 33%
Mélenchon 64% - Le Pen 36%
Fillon 58% - Le Pen 42%

Another quite bad poll for Le Pen.

Damn, that is terrifying for Panzergirl

It seems like, since the election of THE DONALD, far right parties are losing momentum.

[Mike88]

Which candidates do you guys think could be more hit if turnout is extremely low as polls are saying? I say it could be Macron and Mélenchon because of their not very strong voter base while Fillon and Le Pen could be the main beneficiaries.

[Tintrlvr]

Which candidates do you guys think could be more hit if turnout is extremely low as polls are saying? I say it could be Macron and Mélenchon because of their not very strong voter base while Fillon and Le Pen could be the main beneficiaries.

Speaking without anything close to the expertise of some other posters here...

I think Le Pen is hurt most by lower turnout. Her voters are most enthusiastic about her but are also generally disaffected types who aren't necessarily very political. I think they are the most likely not to vote.

Melenchon is also likely hurt because his vote skews quite strongly towards the young and relies (to a lesser extent) on the same types of disaffected voters as Le Pen. (Those 3% or so of voters who have of late switched from Le Pen to Melenchon are probably the least likely group to vote.)

Macron may be hurt a little bit because he also does well with young voters, but on the other hand he does very well with upscale highly educated voters (both bobo-types and more conservative/moderate but reformist wealthy voters who are turned off by Fillon's sleaze), who probably have the highest voting propensity of all demographics, so Macron may do worst in a middling turnout environment rather than low turnout.

Fillon is the candidate most obviously helped by low turnout and hurt by high turnout because his voters skew very old and quite well off, making them the most likely to vote.

Hamon is probably helped by low turnout at this point, as the ~5% of voters who will always vote PS are the types who will turn out to vote for him no matter what, though he is obviously dead in the water.

Most of the crank candidates are probably helped by low turnout as they have their (small) loyal fanbases.

[The Other Castro]

Imagine if Le Pen underperforms a little, Fillon rises a bit, and Mélenchon takes a little more from Macron and Hamon and we get something like this:

Macron: 22%
Le Pen: 22%
Fillon: 22%
Mélenchon: 22%
Hamon: 6%
Others: 6%

[Tirnam]

French media were never been in a "too close to call" situation, that would be funny to see.

Plus this year the first polls will close at 7pm, which means that pollsters will only have one hour to collect some results and calculate their projections, I believe that they can do a projection under 45-50 minutes after the polls close but maybe it won't be as precise as before, when they had an extra hour to do it.

[2952-0-0]

Wouldn't we know beforehand, as exit polls would be leaked to Swiss and Belgian media outlets to circumvent France's ban on publishing exit polls?

[Tirnam]

There is no exit poll in France.

The only thing we have is a projection based on the first votes counted in some selected polling stations by pollster.
As I said, it takes around 45 minutes to do this projection, so when the polls closed at 6pm, Belgian and Swiss media could give the information around 7pm, when French media have to wait 8pm.

To stop that, this year the first polls will close at 7pm, so the pollsters will finish their first projection just minutes before 8pm. It's unlikely that the numbers would be leaked by Swiss or Belgian medias.

Any information that will leak before 8pm on a national projection will be probably fake.

[Kringla Heimsins]

I'm really afraid a lot of disaffected former Fillon voters from when he was at 27% will change their mind at the last minute in the voting booth, like many indecisive Republicans finally broke out in favor of Trump at the very last moment. They could think "better a crook than Macron".

And that would be terrifying. François Fillon is the worst candidate ever seeking the office of President, in my opinion.

[Devout Centrist]

There is no exit poll in France.

The only thing we have is a projection based on the first votes counted in some selected polling stations by pollster.
As I said, it takes around 45 minutes to do this projection, so when the polls closed at 6pm, Belgian and Swiss media could give the information around 7pm, when French media have to wait 8pm.

To stop that, this year the first polls will close at 7pm, so the pollsters will finish their first projection just minutes before 8pm. It's unlikely that the numbers would be leaked by Swiss or Belgian medias.

Any information that will leak before 8pm on a national projection will be probably fake.

Is that what Radio Londres leaks?

[DL]

I'm really afraid a lot of disaffected former Fillon voters from when he was at 27% will change their mind at the last minute in the voting booth, like many indecisive Republicans finally broke out in favor of Trump at the very last moment. They could think "better a crook than Macron".

Anything is possible but I don't see any comparison whatsoever between the attitude of a typical Les Republicains voter in France towards Macron and the attitude of a typical GOP voter in the US towards Hilary Clinton. Macron has nowhere near the negatives that Hillary had and on top of that by virtue of being male, he doesn't elicit misogyny. The real knuckle dragging white supremacists in France are not the Fillon voters, they are the LePen voters.

[Tintrlvr]

I'm really afraid a lot of disaffected former Fillon voters from when he was at 27% will change their mind at the last minute in the voting booth, like many indecisive Republicans finally broke out in favor of Trump at the very last moment. They could think "better a crook than Macron".

Anything is possible but I don't see any comparison whatsoever between the attitude of a typical Les Republicains voter in France towards Macron and the attitude of a typical GOP voter in the US towards Hilary Clinton. Macron has nowhere near the negatives that Hillary had and on top of that by virtue of being male, he doesn't elicit misogyny. The real knuckle dragging white supremacists in France are not the Fillon voters, they are the LePen voters.

Mostly agree, but there are plenty of knuckle-dragger LR voters who think FN is too lower class to vote for them. Not that such people would ever consider Macron.

[rob in cal]

  If France had the Irish transferable vote method for the Presidential election I think it would make things a lot smoother and less random, in terms of who makes the runoff.

[Tintrlvr]

Would be an interesting twist on IRV, STV and run-off systems to have STV determine the top two, then have the top two from STV run in an ordinary run-off instead of going full IRV.

[Famous Mortimer]

Remind me again what FBM is supposed to stand for?

[Barnes]

Remind me again what FBM is supposed to stand for?

Well the explanations vary, from Flawless Beautiful Macron to Fan Boy Macron, but my personal favorite (of my own twisted invention) remains Flanby's Baby.

[MAINEiac4434]

Remind me again what FBM is supposed to stand for?

The status quo.

[Barnes]

Remind me again what FBM is supposed to stand for?

The status quo.

[Antonio the Sixth]

God this guy looks insufferable. It's going to be a pain having him in the headlines for 5 years.