2017 French Presidential Election

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I just found out that Melenchon wants to give French citizenship to Julian Assange.

F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM

[Terry the Fat Shark]

When are we gonna get more polls

[Figueira]

I think I'd vote Macron. He is awful, but the other three options are REALLY awful. Too bad Hamon has no chance; I would be very happy if he won.

[mgop]

i was for le pen, but now i'm for melenchon. anyway that would be second round from dreams.

[Hindsight was 2020]

John Oliver covered the election today an as a American may I say Le Pen's father is a f**king monster

[Antonio the Sixth]

John Oliver covered the election today an as a American may I say Le Pen's father is a f**king monster

Ah, I love it when newbies find out about the awfulness of French politics.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I just found out that Melenchon wants to give French citizenship to Julian Assange.

F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM

So you'd support Le Pen over him in a runoff?

[America Needs R'hllor]

I just found out that Melenchon wants to give French citizenship to Julian Assange.

F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM

So you'd support Le Pen over him in a runoff?

While both are terrible in this regard, Le Pen is even more of a Putin hack, so while I can't speak for BRTD, Melenchon is probably preferable.

[Shadows]

Is this even debatable considering Le Pen is even more of a religious bigot than Trump, will ban all non-Christian symbols & headgear & they whole anti-semitic talks have started in her party again.

I mean Melenchon has problems, but Le Pen, seriously?

[Bumaye]

When are we gonna get more polls

 
 
Now.   
 
OpinionWay: 
 
Macron 22% (=) 
Le Pen 22% (-1%) 
Fillon 21% (+1%) 
Mélenchon 18% (+1%) 
Hamon 8% (-1%) 
Dupont-Aignan 3% (=) 
Poutou 2% (=) 
Lassalle 2% (=) 
 
2nd Round: 
Macron vs. Le Pen: 64% - 36% (+2% Macron) 
Fillon vs. Le Pen: 60% - 40% (+2% Fillon) 
 
The sample size was unusually large for OpinionWay with 2,168. Normal is ~1,400.

[ApatheticAustrian]

so.....melenchon has taken enough le pen/macron voters that fillon is back even while his reputation is soooo finished.

perfect end to a nightmare.

[DL]

It would be quite amusing if LePen missed the run off

[mvd10]

The lifelong RPR/UMP/LR voters will decide they don't care about corruption after all and come home just in time for Fillon to get to the second round with 22-23% of the vote. I'm calling it now.

[Zinneke]

The lifelong RPR/UMP/LR voters will decide they don't care about corruption after all and come home just in time for Fillon to get to the second round with 22-23% of the vote. I'm calling it now.

Yep, with those margins I think this is what will happen too.

THey listen to Zemmour enough for them to collectively decide that way.

[peterthlee]

When are we gonna get more polls

 
 
Now.   
 
OpinionWay: 
 
Macron 22% (=) 
Le Pen 22% (-1%) 
Fillon 21% (+1%) 
Mélenchon 18% (+1%) 
Hamon 8% (-1%) 
Dupont-Aignan 3% (=) 
Poutou 2% (=) 
Lassalle 2% (=) 
 
2nd Round: 
Macron vs. Le Pen: 64% - 36% (+2% Macron) 
Fillon vs. Le Pen: 60% - 40% (+2% Fillon) 
 
The sample size was unusually large for OpinionWay with 2,168. Normal is ~1,400.

Where is Macron-Fillon? This will be hilarious.

[DL]

Its interesting how we have all been told repeatedly that LePen's vote is "rock solid" and that her voters are very unlikely to change their minds...and yet she has steadily lost ground over the last few weeks from high 20s to low 20s...i guess her vote isn't so solid after all!

Latest Ifop (April 13-17):
 
Macron 23% (+0.5%)
Le Pen 22.5% (-0.5%)
Fillon 19.5% (+0.5%)
Mélenchon 19.5% (+0.5%)
Hamon 7.5% (-0.5%)
Dupont-Aignan 3% (=)
Poutou 1.5% (-0.5%)
Lassalle 1% (=) 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://youtu.be/hkZir1L7fSY

[BundouYMB]

Its interesting how we have all been told repeatedly that LePen's vote is "rock solid" and that her voters are very unlikely to change their minds...and yet she has steadily lost ground over the last few weeks from high 20s to low 20s...i guess her vote isn't so solid after all!  

Le Pen's vote IS solid. She's polling a lower *share* of the vote b/c a few weeks ago left-wing voters were saying they weren't going to turnout and now more are saying they will.

Just look at Ifop tracking. At the end of March 62% of respondents said they intend to vote, now 70% intend to.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Hamon voters needs to stop wasting their vote if we want to win this thing over the three undesirables. They are absolutely blowing this for us. How can they be so short-sighted.

[jaichind]

Its interesting how we have all been told repeatedly that LePen's vote is "rock solid" and that her voters are very unlikely to change their minds...and yet she has steadily lost ground over the last few weeks from high 20s to low 20s...i guess her vote isn't so solid after all!  

Le Pen's vote IS solid. She's polling a lower *share* of the vote b/c a few weeks ago left-wing voters were saying they weren't going to turnout and now more are saying they will.

Just look at Ifop tracking. At the end of March 62% of respondents said they intend to vote, now 70% intend to.

Also I am sure, without any real proof, that Le Pen will beat her polling.  I feel this way because I am think that Dupont-Aignan will not win 3.5%-4% as indicated by his polling.  Many of his voters will go to Le Pen and some to Fillon.

[Zinneke]

Hamon voters needs to stop wasting their vote if we want to win this thing over the three undesirables. They are absolutely blowing this for us. How can they be so short-sighted.

Payback for 2002.

[MAINEiac4434]

Hamon voters needs to stop wasting their vote if we want to win this thing over the three undesirables. They are absolutely blowing this for us. How can they be so short-sighted.

Didn't you vote for Jill Stein?

[DL]

Hamon voters needs to stop wasting their vote if we want to win this thing over the three undesirables. They are absolutely blowing this for us. How can they be so short-sighted.

If I were French I would have initially supported Hamon...but if i wanted to vote "strategically" I would vote for Macron not Melenchon. I find Melenchon to be a scary demagogue who wants to wreck the European Union and wants France to adopt a pro-Putin foreign policy. I cannot go along with those dangerous positions. Macron has his faults, but he is by far the least of the four evils.

[afleitch]

A Le Pen - Fillon runoff. And in 2022 the French left will still run about 5 candidates.

[rob in cal]

  Well, I set up an account at predictit.  Bought some "no"  shares on Le Pen winning at 72. (so I'm basically saying I don't think she has a 28% chance of winning, not sure how much her true chance is, but its not 28% in my view).