2017 French Presidential Election

[The Other Castro]

Nate Silver says he's worried about pollster herding. Look at how consistent these numbers are:



https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853998602754158592

[Umengus]

Nate Silver says he's worried about pollster herding. Look at how consistent these numbers are:



https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853998602754158592

I share his doubts...

[MaxQue]

Nate Silver says he's worried about pollster herding. Look at how consistent these numbers are:



https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853998602754158592

However, that's normal, given the usual French polling methods (they use quota sampling).

[Ronnie]

The fact that Macron is hanging on to a runoff by his fingernail tips just shows how weak the pro EU center-to-center-left is right now.  Considering he has practically no competition for his niche, he should probably be in the thirties, at least.

[ApatheticAustrian]

 Considering he has practically no competition for his niche,

i am not sure if the EU topic is the most important point of this election inside of france.

[Barnes]

The fact that Macron is hanging on to a runoff by his fingernail tips just shows how weak the pro EU center-to-center-left is right now.  Considering he has practically no competition for his niche, he should probably be in the thirties, at least.

Macron is running as a complete upstart with no party organization and an overwhelming majority of voters having never heard of him before a couple of months ago. To be honest, in my opinion, there's no reason why he should be doing as well as he is.

Also, the last time a "Centrist pro-EU" candidate made it to the second round (not runoff) was 1981 with Giscard, although the comparison of their economic liberalism are somewhat different.

Considering he has practically no competition for his niche,

i am not sure if the EU topic is the most important point of this election inside of france.

Also, this is correct. The French are much more concerned with sclerotic growth and an "erosion of values," whatever that means.

[Barnes]

Nate Silver says he's worried about pollster herding. Look at how consistent these numbers are:



https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853998602754158592

However, that's normal, given the usual French polling methods (they use quota sampling).

Exactly. This level of consistency is very common for the presidential election.

[Zinneke]

The issue salience has really been as divided as the electoral field, and that has really harmed Panzergirl. Her father basically got through in 2002 because of the public security issue salience that exponentionally built up to the very final day. But she has failed to frame this as globalist elite vs the People issue which could have gone far IMO, and I have barely heard about the Rassemblement Bleu Marine that was supposed to federate the souverainistes. Instead she's spent way too much time talking about the intricacies of her EU plan. She's ran a poor campaign considering the circumstances. You really wonder what the FN could have achieved under Bruno Mégret rather than the Le Pen family enterprise (and shudder).

The fact that the campaign also revolved around Pénélopegate for a long while didn't help. But then what is to blame for this? The very party system that the French people will hopefully vote against, with their primaries and factionalism. Good ridance.

[Antonio the Sixth]

F**k strategic voting.

[Umengus]

Elabe poll

04/16-17

Macron 24 (+0,5)
Marine 23 (+0,5)
Fillon 19,5 (-0,5)
Melanchon 18 (-0,5)

Hamon 8 (-1)

NDA 4 (+1)
Poutou 2
Lasalle 0,5
Artaud 0,5
Asselineau 0,5
Cheminade 0

68 % sure to vote (+5)

73 % sure of their choice (Marine 89, Fillon 76, Macron 72, Melanchon 74, Hamon 53

[Umengus]

Ifop poll

Macron 23 (+0,5)
Marine 22,5 (-0,5)
Fillon 19,5 (+0,5)
Melanchon 19,5 (+0,5)
Hamon 7,5 (-0,5)
NDA 4 (=)
Poutou 1,5 (-0,5)
Asselineau 1 (=)
Lasalle 1 (=)

Turnout: 70 % (+1)

[Umengus]

Opinionway

Macron 22 (=)
Marine 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melanchon 18 (+1)
Hamon 8 (-1)
NDA 3 (=)
Lasalle 2 (=)
Poutou 2 (=)
Asselineau 1 (-1)
Arthaud 1 (+1)

[Shadows]

Hamon voters needs to stop wasting their vote if we want to win this thing over the three undesirables. They are absolutely blowing this for us. How can they be so short-sighted.

Didn't you vote for Jill Stein?

Can you blame him when a fraud like Hillary was on the ticket for Dems? Never understood how someone so radically left with -8 odd Eco score can support a centrist like HRC, but anyways...

@ Thread - Le Pen had a core working class base as well many of whom are economically pretty left & she will lose some of those voters, the more she is exposed, I think Poutou did some damage to her as well. The higher the overall turnout, the worse it is for someone like Le Pen.

Having said I think Melenchon & Le Pen have the best chance of outperforming the polls as their base will be incredibly energized & Hamon the worst because voting for him is simply wasting a vote. Fillon/Melenchon are still 3% off Le Pen, pretty close & is this becomes 1-2%, all bets are off & it is a pure toss-up based on last minute voters & turnout !

[Shadows]

The fact that Macron is hanging on to a runoff by his fingernail tips just shows how weak the pro EU center-to-center-left is right now.  Considering he has practically no competition for his niche, he should probably be in the thirties, at least.

Macron is running as a complete upstart with no party organization and an overwhelming majority of voters having never heard of him before a couple of months ago. To be honest, in my opinion, there's no reason why he should be doing as well as he is.

Also, the last time a "Centrist pro-EU" candidate made it to the second round (not runoff) was 1981 with Giscard, although the comparison of their economic liberalism are somewhat different.

Considering he has practically no competition for his niche,

i am not sure if the EU topic is the most important point of this election inside of france.

Also, this is correct. The French are much more concerned with sclerotic growth and an "erosion of values," whatever that means.

True, none of the people I know are convinced of him - No1 knows what his policies are, very vague n stuff n he could totally govern differently, he has no party organization.

Fillon is worrying with his rise now, he is such a bad candidate he may actually lose to Le Pen with record low turnout with Le Pen's base motivated. Who wants to vote for people like Fillon anyways?

[The Other Castro]

Le Terrain Poll: (lol)

Macron 24%
Mélanchon 22% (!)
Le Pen 21.5%
Fillon 17.5%
Hamon 8%
NDA 3.5%
Poutou 1.5%
Arthaud 1%
Lasalle 0.5%
Asselineau 0.5%


https://blog-scanresearch.leterrain.fr/2017/04/17/jl-melenchon-devance-de-peu-m-le-pen/

[Ronnie]

Would Le Pen voters even turn out in the runoff if it comes down to Melanchon and Macron?

[mvd10]

The fact that Macron is hanging on to a runoff by his fingernail tips just shows how weak the pro EU center-to-center-left is right now.  Considering he has practically no competition for his niche, he should probably be in the thirties, at least.

Macron is running as a complete upstart with no party organization and an overwhelming majority of voters having never heard of him before a couple of months ago. To be honest, in my opinion, there's no reason why he should be doing as well as he is.

Also, the last time a "Centrist pro-EU" candidate made it to the second round (not runoff) was 1981 with Giscard, although the comparison of their economic liberalism are somewhat different.

Considering he has practically no competition for his niche,

i am not sure if the EU topic is the most important point of this election inside of france.

Also, this is correct. The French are much more concerned with sclerotic growth and an "erosion of values," whatever that means.

True, none of the people I know are convinced of him - No1 knows what his policies are, very vague n stuff n he could totally govern differently, he has no party organization.

Fillon is worrying with his rise now, he is such a bad candidate he may actually lose to Le Pen with record low turnout with Le Pen's base motivated. Who wants to vote for people like Fillon anyways?

So far Fillon leads Le Pen in all polls (he scores 54-58% against Le Pen) so I'm not extremely worried about Fillon losing to Le Pen. But a run-off against Fillon probably is the best chance Le Pen will ever get to become president.

[MaxQue]

Would Le Pen voters even turn out in the runoff if it comes down to Melanchon and Macron?

A significant number would vote for Mélenchon (he is anti-establishment as Le Pen).

[MAINEiac4434]

Hamon voters needs to stop wasting their vote if we want to win this thing over the three undesirables. They are absolutely blowing this for us. How can they be so short-sighted.

Didn't you vote for Jill Stein?

Can you blame him when a fraud like Hillary was on the ticket for Dems? Never understood how someone so radically left with -8 odd Eco score can support a centrist like HRC, but

CENTRISTS ARE BETTER THAN FASCISTS

Under the American electoral system, only Hillary Clinton could've prevented a xenophobic nationalist from becoming President. So her platform wasn't perfectly socialist? I don't care, she's miles goddamn better than the alternative.

[parochial boy]

@ Thread - Le Pen had a core working class base as well many of whom are economically pretty left & she will lose some of those voters, the more she is exposed, I think Poutou did some damage to her as well. The higher the overall turnout, the worse it is for someone like Le Pen.

Having said I think Melenchon & Le Pen have the best chance of outperforming the polls as their base will be incredibly energized & Hamon the worst because voting for him is simply wasting a vote. Fillon/Melenchon are still 3% off Le Pen, pretty close & is this becomes 1-2%, all bets are off & it is a pure toss-up based on last minute voters & turnout !

Polling has generally been pretty much spot on for Le Pen in recent elections. The most likely polling error is going to be Macron, because he has never stood before.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

When are we gonna get more polls

 
 
Now.   
 
OpinionWay: 
 
Macron 22% (=) 
Le Pen 22% (-1%) 
Fillon 21% (+1%) 
Mélenchon 18% (+1%) 
Hamon 8% (-1%) 
Dupont-Aignan 3% (=) 
Poutou 2% (=) 
Lassalle 2% (=) 
 
2nd Round: 
Macron vs. Le Pen: 64% - 36% (+2% Macron) 
Fillon vs. Le Pen: 60% - 40% (+2% Fillon) 
 
The sample size was unusually large for OpinionWay with 2,168. Normal is ~1,400.

Amazing how close this is getting to a 4 way tie. They should poll all 6 runoff possibilities.

[Maxwell]

The most hilarious potential run-off would be Melenchon and Fillon, and I'm beginning to suspect that is the outcome. I really can't predict - but Macron's numbers have been slightly more steady than Le Pen, who seems to be draining support to Melenchon and to Fillon.

[Zinneke]

The most hilarious potential run-off would be Melenchon and Fillon, and I'm beginning to suspect that is the outcome. I really can't predict - but Macron's numbers have been slightly more steady than Le Pen, who seems to be draining support to Melenchon and to Fillon.

Le Pen's support hasn't changed since the start. She had 89% of her voters who said it was certainty they were going to vote for her. Her share going down is because of a sudden undecided swing towards alternative candidates.

Hence why the media are rightly point towards Macron losing voters. He still has a lot of undecided.

Would Le Pen voters even turn out in the runoff if it comes down to Melanchon and Macron?

A significant number would vote for Mélenchon (he is anti-establishment as Le Pen).

I'm not sure its a significant number and I doubt it would be enough. Remember that FN fought years against the PCF. Her core 15-18% will not touch someone like Mélenchon - the rest would more than likely stay home. Overall in the transfers only about 20% of her entire voter base would transfer to Mélenchon IIRC (the other thread with the figures got deleted). Macron actually does better as a second choice for FN voters than the others.

It would certainly make for an interesting FN internal fight as to what to do but if Marine doesn't make the second round she resigns immediately.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://youtu.be/hkZir1L7fSY

hahahaha larry skywalker omg

[Intell]

F**k strategic voting.

Didn't you lambast voters for voting for Stein, or at least told people, to vote for Clinton to defeat Sanders?

Would you say the same thing, if Hamon was in this position instead of Melenchon? I think before you were saying, that Melenchon voters should vote for Hamon, or am I wrong?