2017 French Presidential Election

[Chief Justice Keef]

I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger.

[Kamala]

I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger.

I'm concerned about Melenchon's russophilia... Macron's pro-EU stance makes him much more favorable in my opinion, although the French may disagree.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger.

I'm concerned about Melenchon's russophilia... Macron's pro-EU stance makes him much more favorable in my opinion, although the French may disagree.

Why are leftists behaving this way about Russia? This is absolutely ludicrous.

[MAINEiac4434]

I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger.

I'm concerned about Melenchon's russophilia... Macron's pro-EU stance makes him much more favorable in my opinion, although the French may disagree.

Why are leftists behaving this way about Russia? This is absolutely ludicrous.

I thought we tended to like democracies and dislike oligarchic dictatorships?

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger.

I'm concerned about Melenchon's russophilia... Macron's pro-EU stance makes him much more favorable in my opinion, although the French may disagree.

Why are leftists behaving this way about Russia? This is absolutely ludicrous.

I thought we tended to like democracies and dislike oligarchic dictatorships?

Or that we tend to support gay rights and dislike state-approved homophobia and countries that ignore arrests and executions of lgbt people in their sovereign land?

[Tirnam]

Poll, Harris Interactive for France Télévisions
Macron regains a good lead in the first round

Macron: 25% (+1 since a week ago)
Le Pen: 22% (=)
Fillon: 19% (-1)
Mélenchon: 19% (=)
Hamon: 7,5% (-0,5)
Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=)
Poutou: 1,5% (+0,5)
Others are at 1% or under.

Second round

Macron 66%, Le Pen 34%
Macron 68%, Fillon 32%
Macron 60%, Mélenchon 40%
Mélenchon 60%, Le Pen 40%
Mélenchon 58%, Fillon 42%
Fillon 58%, Le Pen 42%

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger.

I'm concerned about Melenchon's russophilia... Macron's pro-EU stance makes him much more favorable in my opinion, although the French may disagree.

Why are leftists behaving this way about Russia? This is absolutely ludicrous.

Because Russia is as imperialistic as USA? They are just warmongers oppressing people.

[ApatheticAustrian]

russia is THE global anti-left/anti-progressive/anti-liberal and anti-democratic superpower of our time, and they are spreading their ideology by all possible means.

[Bumaye]

I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger.

I'm concerned about Melenchon's russophilia... Macron's pro-EU stance makes him much more favorable in my opinion, although the French may disagree.

Why are leftists behaving this way about Russia? This is absolutely ludicrous.

 
 
It's the god ol' philosophy: If you wanna oppose Murica support Moscow. I'd love to see European left politicians more often who oppose both, the homophobic oligarch and the narcissistic billionaire.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger.

I'm concerned about Melenchon's russophilia... Macron's pro-EU stance makes him much more favorable in my opinion, although the French may disagree.

Why are leftists behaving this way about Russia? This is absolutely ludicrous.

 
 
It's the god ol' philosophy: If you wanna oppose Murica support Moscow. I'd love to see European left politicians more often who oppose both, the homophobic oligarch and the narcissistic billionaire.

The only one who supports Trump is Marine

[Zanas]

Some leftists tend to like Russia because of the whole "the enemy of your enemy is your friend" fallacy, and they think it's a good obstacle to American and "Western" imperialism. Of course some leftists are just idiots.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger.

I'm concerned about Melenchon's russophilia... Macron's pro-EU stance makes him much more favorable in my opinion, although the French may disagree.

Why are leftists behaving this way about Russia? This is absolutely ludicrous.

I thought we tended to like democracies and dislike oligarchic dictatorships?

No Russia was communist 50 years ago so put on your dancing shoes and show solidarity

[SunSt0rm]

Map of regions polled by Ipsos. Didnt expect Fillon to be better in Ile de France, thought it would be favorable to Macron, also suprised seeing Macron 4th in PACA

[Middle-aged Europe]

Some leftists tend to like Russia because of the whole "the enemy of your enemy is your friend" fallacy, and they think it's a good obstacle to American and "Western" imperialism. Of course some leftists are just idiots.

Russian imperialism is even worse than Western imperialism.

[Tirnam]

Tracking polls

OpinionWay - stable
Macron: 23%
Le Pen: 22%
Fillon: 20%
Mélenchon: 19%
Hamon: 8%
Dupont-Aignan: 4%
Poutou: 2%
Lassalle and Asselineau: 1%
Arthaud and Cheminade: 0%

Ifop
Macron: 24% (+0.5)
Le Pen: 22.5% (=)
Fillon: 19.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (=)
Hamon: 7% (-0.5)
Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=)
Poutou and Lassalle: 1.5% (=)
Asselineau: 1% (=)
Arthaud: 0.5% (=)
Cheminade: 0% (=)

Turnout indicator for Ifop still rising, now 73%

[RogueBeaver]

Politico on what Panzergirl's first 100 days would look like. Spoiler: making Trump's look boring.

[Devout Centrist]

Politico on what Panzergirl's first 100 days would look like. Spoiler: making Trump's look boring.

Credit where it's due, unlike Trump, Le Pen is not an inept idiot.

[Gass3268]

Obama called Macron

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Barnes]

Tracking polls

OpinionWay - stable
Macron: 23%
Le Pen: 22%
Fillon: 20%
Mélenchon: 19%
Hamon: 8%
Dupont-Aignan: 4%
Poutou: 2%
Lassalle and Asselineau: 1%
Arthaud and Cheminade: 0%

Ifop
Macron: 24% (+0.5)
Le Pen: 22.5% (=)
Fillon: 19.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (=)
Hamon: 7% (-0.5)
Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=)
Poutou and Lassalle: 1.5% (=)
Asselineau: 1% (=)
Arthaud: 0.5% (=)
Cheminade: 0% (=)

Turnout indicator for Ifop still rising, now 73%

Encouraging to see the turnout indicator tipping up; harkens back to Windjammer's earlier point that people finally become engaged as the vote approaches.

Personally I think turnout will be in the range of 70 to 75% but should have a stronger increase on 2012 in the second round.

[parochial boy]

Map of regions polled by Ipsos. Didnt expect Fillon to be better in Ile de France, thought it would be favorable to Macron, also suprised seeing Macron 4th in PACA

Fascinating, thanks!

I'm not surprised about PACA - but would not have expected Mélenchon to be ahead in Nouvelle-Aquitaine. I guess that's what you get if you glue three left wing regions together (but none of which are particularly historicallyy favourable to the far left).

Also surprised to see Macron in front of Fillon in Pays-de-la-Loire - is Nantes outvoting the rest of the region?

[Tirnam]

Il believe turnout will be as usual, around 80%.

Great news for the Obama phone call, I don't think it will have an impact, but it can't hurt.

[Tender Branson]

The regional poll from Ipsos also had 2nd round results. There's no map, but Wikipedia has the results in tabular form:



1st round:

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Who would be Melenchon's PM if he wins?

[Babeuf]

If the polls are right the biggest remaining question IMO is how much of Hamon's soft support leaves him, and whether that could push Melenchon up into the low 20s. Unfortunately, his momentum seems to have stalled out. Alternatively, it could also solidify Macron's position in the top two if they go for him. But based on some previous polls of Hamon supporters they'd split more towards Melenchon if they leave.  

[Tirnam]

Dominique de Villepin, former PM, most remember for his UN speech against the war in Iraq, will endorse Macron tomorrow.