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Author Topic: 2017 French Presidential Election  (Read 40868 times)
TheSaint250
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« Reply #850 on: April 21, 2017, 01:46:56 pm »
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^^ "What's going on" is Trump's code word for MUZLIMS!!, right??
Or "code word" for terrorism.  But whatever floats your boat
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« Reply #851 on: April 21, 2017, 01:57:03 pm »
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^^ "What's going on" is Trump's code word for MUZLIMS!!, right??
Or "code word" for terrorism.  But whatever floats your boat

Short of resigning there isn't a thing in the world which Trump could do to "float my boat".
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Tirnam
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« Reply #852 on: April 21, 2017, 03:28:14 pm »
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So each institute has released its final poll.

Macron is between 23% and 24.5%
Le Pen is between 21% and 23%
Fillon is between 18.5% and 21%
Mélenchon is between 18.5% and 19.5%
Hamon is between 7.5% and 8%
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I Won - Get Over It
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« Reply #853 on: April 21, 2017, 03:44:49 pm »
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-french-election-is-way-too-close-to-call/
The French Election Is Way Too Close To Call

1 Error is about 3%, probably 5-9
2 Multi-way races are the most error-prone
3 Pollsters may be herding
4 Run-off will probably be boring.


Conclusion: We don't really know who'll get to the run-off, but once we know, we'll probably know the winner.
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Castro
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« Reply #854 on: April 21, 2017, 03:48:53 pm »
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What time should exit polls be expected again?
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parochial boy
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« Reply #855 on: April 21, 2017, 03:52:29 pm »
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8pm. Technically not an exit poll, but a projection based on actual vote counts at a selection of the polling stations (outside big cities) that close at 7pm.
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I Won - Get Over It
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« Reply #856 on: April 21, 2017, 03:53:12 pm »
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What time should exit polls be expected again?


http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/21/france-election-le-pen-macron-vote.html
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Polling stations are due to close between 7 p.m. Paris time (8 p.m. for the big cities) on Sunday. Preliminary results are expected around 9 p.m. Paris time, slightly later than usual as the close race is expected to complicate and delay the results. In recent history, France has never had a race that was too close to call, with the two leading candidates usually being pretty clear.

"This is a four way race with the potential for the numbers to be quite close to one another. In the previous elections exit polls have over/under estimated the candidates by up to +-2 percent either way. They correct themselves as the night progresses and typically by 9:30 pm (London time) they are more confident as to the results," Nomura noted in a research note on Thursday.
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Castro
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« Reply #857 on: April 21, 2017, 03:56:13 pm »
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Oh nice, then I will definitely be making a croque monsieur for lunch on Sunday.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #858 on: April 21, 2017, 04:08:16 pm »
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What time should exit polls be expected again?
The projections (which is based on real results, not a poll) will be released at 8pm, if everything is okay.

There are two uncertainties:
-Will the pollsters have enough time to collect the result and calculate their projections? This year they will have only one hour, not two. I read that to be sure to have a projection at 8pm the pollsters will double their selected polling stations where they collect the first results. At 8pm it will be also the first projection while in the past it was the second or third actualization, it might be less accurate.
-We always had in France a clear picture of the result at 8pm, this time it could be different, the media are preparing for a "too close to call" situation, so instead of 2 faces at 8pm we could see one (if only one candidate is sure to be in the runoff), or three, or four.

Also the pollsters have confirmed to the national commission of polls that they will not conduct any exit poll Sunday, so there is absolutely no way to have any idea of the result before 8pm.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #859 on: April 21, 2017, 04:38:27 pm »
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What time should exit polls be expected again?
The projections (which is based on real results, not a poll) will be released at 8pm, if everything is okay.

There are two uncertainties:
-Will the pollsters have enough time to collect the result and calculate their projections? This year they will have only one hour, not two. I read that to be sure to have a projection at 8pm the pollsters will double their selected polling stations where they collect the first results. At 8pm it will be also the first projection while in the past it was the second or third actualization, it might be less accurate.
-We always had in France a clear picture of the result at 8pm, this time it could be different, the media are preparing for a "too close to call" situation, so instead of 2 faces at 8pm we could see one (if only one candidate is sure to be in the runoff), or three, or four.

Also the pollsters have confirmed to the national commission of polls that they will not conduct any exit poll Sunday, so there is absolutely no way to have any idea of the result before 8pm.

In 2002, was it considered certain at 8pm that Jospin was out of the runoff and Le Pen in?
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Umengus
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« Reply #860 on: April 21, 2017, 04:42:24 pm »
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bva poll (thursday and friday)

Macron 23 (-1)
Marine 23 (=)
Melanchon 19,5 (+0,5)
Fillon 19 (=)
Hamon 8 (-0,5)
NDA 4 (+0,5)

6 % did not express
29% dit not express or can change their vote

86% (=) of Le Pen voters are sure
85 (+4) of Fillon voters
73 (-1) of Macron voters
70 (-5) of Melanchon voters
62 (+4) of Hamon voters

Odoxa poll (60 % of the poll after the terrorist attack)

Macron 24,5
Marine 23 (+1)
Fillon 19
Melanchon 19
Hamon 7,5
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Umengus
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« Reply #861 on: April 21, 2017, 04:43:39 pm »
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What time should exit polls be expected again?
The projections (which is based on real results, not a poll) will be released at 8pm, if everything is okay.

There are two uncertainties:
-Will the pollsters have enough time to collect the result and calculate their projections? This year they will have only one hour, not two. I read that to be sure to have a projection at 8pm the pollsters will double their selected polling stations where they collect the first results. At 8pm it will be also the first projection while in the past it was the second or third actualization, it might be less accurate.
-We always had in France a clear picture of the result at 8pm, this time it could be different, the media are preparing for a "too close to call" situation, so instead of 2 faces at 8pm we could see one (if only one candidate is sure to be in the runoff), or three, or four.

Also the pollsters have confirmed to the national commission of polls that they will not conduct any exit poll Sunday, so there is absolutely no way to have any idea of the result before 8pm.

In 2002, was it considered certain at 8pm that Jospin was out of the runoff and Le Pen in?

yes
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Tirnam
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« Reply #862 on: April 21, 2017, 04:56:16 pm »
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The Odoxa poll is entirely after the terror attack. The poll done before the attack hasn't be released

Unbelievable: Fillon might give back the money perceived by his wife and children if he is elected
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #863 on: April 22, 2017, 02:46:34 am »
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Here's a map of the 2015 regionals by town (I guess rural France will deliver strongly for Le Pen tomorrow and the map could be even further dark-blue):

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mvd10
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« Reply #864 on: April 22, 2017, 05:04:34 am »
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So, to me the question is if France's voting pattern will mirror the more moderate Dutch parliamentary one or the more extremist Austrian one from the 1st round of the Presidential election ...

Austria's 1st round was held at the height of the migrant inflow and the ongoing security debate after the Cologne rapes. The far-right candidate polled 22-24% and got 35% in the end.

On the other hand, you have the Dutch vote in which voters opted for the centrist parties rather than the far-right, despite Turkish agitation and violence on the street a couple days before. The far-right gained a bit, but was mostly sidelined.

I think France will be somewhere in the middle tomorrow, Le Pen outperforming her polls by 5% at the most. She also has some far-left competition with Melenchon when it comes to workers votes and Fillon is much stronger than Khol (ÖVP) ever was, despite all his scandals. So she'll never hit 30% or the 35% of Hofer.

France doesn't have the migration flood and immigrant rapes etc. that Austria experienced, but has to deal with constant terror threats and still high unemployment and suffers from the same rural disintegration in many parts like Austrian small towns do, which could boost Le Pen. I'm just not sure though if Melenchon's support is real this time or overblown just like in 2012, giving the additional points to Le Pen instead.

The PVV didn't really underperform the polls in the Dutch election though. They were polling at something like 22 seats and they got 20 seats. The main surprise was the VVD (centre-right party) massively overperforming the polls, but the reason for that was the row with Turkey. I'm not sure whether the terror attack in France can be a game changer like the row with Turkey was in the Netherlands.
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« Reply #865 on: April 22, 2017, 05:10:32 am »
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So the first voters have started voting... in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon. It's on, fellows, for better or worst.
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I haven't seen anything pointing to a Brexit win at this point, when you factor in how a referendum actually works.

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Kalwejt
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« Reply #866 on: April 22, 2017, 05:22:07 am »
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If Dupont-Aignan somehow passes Hamon, it would be hilarious. Hilarious and sad.

I wouldn't be particularly shocked to see Hamon doing worse than Gaston Defferre in 1969, which was a nail to SFIO's coffin.
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« Reply #867 on: April 22, 2017, 05:23:29 am »
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So the first voters have started voting... in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon. It's on, fellows, for better or worst.

5.000 eligible voters.

BOOM !
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #868 on: April 22, 2017, 05:33:10 am »
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Austrian Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) endorses Macron ... and not Hamon:

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5205246/Kern_Ich-bin-kein-Masochist
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tack50
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« Reply #869 on: April 22, 2017, 05:56:10 am »
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Austrian Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) endorses Macron ... and not Hamon:

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5205246/Kern_Ich-bin-kein-Masochist

For all what's worth Pablo Iglesias here endorsed Melenchon, but that was totally expected.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #870 on: April 22, 2017, 06:51:01 am »
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I'm very interested in seeing how Guyane votes. Probably a minuscule turn out
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Umengus
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« Reply #871 on: April 22, 2017, 08:25:15 am »
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last poll (the newspaper "tribune de genčve" doesn't say wich polling firm is). The majority of polled after the terrorist attack.

Macron 24 (-0,5)
Marine 23 (+1)
Fillon 20,5 (+1)
Melanchon (-0,5)
Hamon 7
NDA 3
Asselineau 1
Lasalle 1

the pollster say that there is a (minor) boost for Marine and Fillon due to the terrorist attack.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2017, 08:27:19 am by Umengus »Logged

Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Polkergeist
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« Reply #872 on: April 22, 2017, 08:30:33 am »
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Is there any chance of a further squeeze on Hamon and/or Dupont-Aignan voters towards the four front runners?
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Actually from Australia, registered in ND 'cause I like wide open spaces Smiley
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Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #873 on: April 22, 2017, 08:35:42 am »
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last poll (the newspaper "tribune de genčve" doesn't say wich polling firm is). The majority of polled after the terrorist attack.

Macron 24 (-0,5)
Marine 23 (+1)
Fillon 20,5 (+1)
Melanchon (-0,5)
Hamon 7
NDA 3
Asselineau 1
Lasalle 1

the pollster say that there is a (minor) boost for Marine and Fillon due to the terrorist attack.

The full boost will only materialize tomorrow I guess.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2017, 08:58:07 am by Hash »Logged
Donnie
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« Reply #874 on: April 22, 2017, 08:50:37 am »
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Final prediction:

25% Le Pen
23% Fillon
-----------------
23% Macron
17% Melenchon
  7% Hamon
  3% Dupont
  2% Others
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