2017 French Presidential Election

[DL]

Of course it's worth noting that in the 70s and 80s Paris itself was a Gaullist stronghold that alwaaus had a RPR mayor and always voted for the right in legislative and presidential elections. Now it's the e act opposite, what is the explanation for that?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well sh*t.

[adma]

Of course it's worth noting that in the 70s and 80s Paris itself was a Gaullist stronghold that alwaaus had a RPR mayor and always voted for the right in legislative and presidential elections. Now it's the e act opposite, what is the explanation for that?

Unless Fillon in the lead in the Ile-de-France is a last vestige of that dynamic.

[Hash]

The region as a whole has moved to the left as it has become more secular, in particular the far east of the region, and around the Monts d'Arrée in Finistere, which are traditional catholic strongholds.

I don't bother posting here anymore (too many morons), but the Monts d'Arrée were not a traditional Catholic stronghold - in fact, it has been a stronghold of the radical/revolutionary left since at least the nineteenth century, already being described as such by André Siegfried in 1913. It is a very poor, militantly secular and typically rebellious region which has a long history of radical left politics - the old canton of Huelgoat was held by the PCF between 1945 and 2008, Robert Hue was winning over 30% of the vote in some communes in 1995 (placed first in four) and Mélenchon did very well in 2012 too (not as well as Hue). The Catholic stronghold par excellence of the Finistère is the Léon, which was extremely right-wing until recently (still somewhat visible), and to a lesser extent some of the Montagnes Noires.

[Tirnam]

Poll Elabe (before the attack)

Macron: 24% (=)
Le Pen: 21.5% (-1.5)
Fillon: 20% (+0.5)
Mélenchon: 19.5% (+1.5)
Hamon: 7% (-1)
Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=)
Poutou: 1.5% (-0,5)
The others: at or under 1%

It's the last day of polls today, I don't know if we will have a poll done after the attack.

[Former President tack50]

Poll Elabe (before the attack)

Macron: 24% (=)
Le Pen: 21.5% (-1.5)
Fillon: 20% (+0.5)
Mélenchon: 19.5% (+1.5)
Hamon: 7% (-1)
Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=)
Poutou: 1.5% (-0,5)
The others: at or under 1%

It's the last day of polls today, I don't know if we will have a poll done after the attack.

Does France have a "no polling can be published period" like Spain? If so, will we see polling done at mysterious Andorran shops?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Poll Elabe (before the attack)

Macron: 24% (=)
Le Pen: 21.5% (-1.5)
Fillon: 20% (+0.5)
Mélenchon: 19.5% (+1.5)
Hamon: 7% (-1)
Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=)
Poutou: 1.5% (-0,5)
The others: at or under 1%

It's the last day of polls today, I don't know if we will have a poll done after the attack.

Does France have a "no polling can be published period" like Spain? If so, will we see polling done at mysterious Andorran shops?

A giveaway will be if it's a poll for "Co-Prince of Andorra".

[SPQR]

At this point what really matters IMO is to see:
- if Macron's vote share will hold after yesterday's attack, and in general if he is able to solidify the remaining 25% of soft supporters
 - how much Le Pen will gain. This attack will also make it harder to judge the polls' reliability on Le Pen's numbers, since any differential with respect to the poll average could be then attributed to the Paris terrorist attack.
- if Fillon is able to gain from Dupont-Aignan, Le Pen and even Macron, going over 20% and putting Macron's place in the second round at risk
- if Melenchon's supporters who have been attracted to his candidacy only in the last month will stick with him until the end
- if Hamon further collapses (as the latest polls seem to suggest), and in that case how much of this support goes to Melenchon and how much to Macron
- if the small leftish candidates keep their 1/2%, or if it goes to Melenchon

[Tirnam]

Poll Elabe (before the attack)

Macron: 24% (=)
Le Pen: 21.5% (-1.5)
Fillon: 20% (+0.5)
Mélenchon: 19.5% (+1.5)
Hamon: 7% (-1)
Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=)
Poutou: 1.5% (-0,5)
The others: at or under 1%

It's the last day of polls today, I don't know if we will have a poll done after the attack.

Does France have a "no polling can be published period" like Spain? If so, will we see polling done at mysterious Andorran shops?

Yes from tonight midnight to Sunday 8pm. Maybe some polls will be done and will leak, but it's just for one day. (And recently in France, on social media people who support Fillon, Le Pen, Asselineau, Mélenchon, ... make up fake polls, so how to distinct them from real polls?)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Poll Elabe (before the attack)

Macron: 24% (=)
Le Pen: 21.5% (-1.5)
Fillon: 20% (+0.5)
Mélenchon: 19.5% (+1.5)
Hamon: 7% (-1)
Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=)
Poutou: 1.5% (-0,5)
The others: at or under 1%

It's the last day of polls today, I don't know if we will have a poll done after the attack.

Does France have a "no polling can be published period" like Spain? If so, will we see polling done at mysterious Andorran shops?

Yes from tonight midnight to Sunday 8pm. Maybe some polls will be done and will leak, but it's just for one day. (And recently in France, on social media people who support Fillon, Le Pen, Asselineau, Mélenchon, ... make up fake polls, so how to distinct them from real polls?)

I'm actually curious about these polls. How ridiculous and wild are they? Asselineau winning 10%? Le Pen winning 50%? Mélenchon with 25%?

[Tirnam]

For example, on twitter a Mélenchon voter said that an Austrian poll done by the BIFIE (a think-tank on education I believe) has Le Pen and Mélenchon in the lead

You have also this fantasy of polls done by the domestic intelligence service (they used the acronyme RG, Renseignements généraux, which doesn't exist since 2008)

A classic, the internet poll

And this time a Canadian firm has the favors of Fillon's supporters, it mesures the impact of social media. And it's so right because they predicted Trump (which they didn't), the Brexit (which they didn't), and Fillon's victory in the primary (and they also predicted that Sarkozy will be in the runoff)

[parochial boy]

The region as a whole has moved to the left as it has become more secular, in particular the far east of the region, and around the Monts d'Arrée in Finistere, which are traditional catholic strongholds.

I don't bother posting here anymore (too many morons), but the Monts d'Arrée were not a traditional Catholic stronghold - in fact, it has been a stronghold of the radical/revolutionary left since at least the nineteenth century, already being described as such by André Siegfried in 1913. It is a very poor, militantly secular and typically rebellious region which has a long history of radical left politics - the old canton of Huelgoat was held by the PCF between 1945 and 2008, Robert Hue was winning over 30% of the vote in some communes in 1995 (placed first in four) and Mélenchon did very well in 2012 too (not as well as Hue). The Catholic stronghold par excellence of the Finistère is the Léon, which was extremely right-wing until recently (still somewhat visible), and to a lesser extent some of the Montagnes Noires.

Ugh, I knew somewhere in Finistère; I don't know anywhere near as much about Lower Brittany as I would like - but will refrain from asking as I think I am the only person who would care.

[Klartext89]

I'm still hoping that this Establishment fraud guy without any substance only comes in third. Marine Le Pen vs. Fillion would be a headsup with at least a bit hope for a future for the Grande Nation.

[SunSt0rm]

Opinionway
Macron 23%
Le Pen 22%
Fillon 21% (+1%)
Melenchon 18% (-1%)
Hamon 8%

According to Politico a swiss newspaper will release a poll tomorrow

[Tirnam]

Ipsos

Macron: 24% (+1)
Le Pen: 22% (-0.5)
Fillon: 19% (-0.5)
Mélenchon: 19% (=)
Hamon: 7.5% (-0.5)
Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=)
Poutou and Lassalle at 1.5%
The others are at 1% or under.

[Tender Branson]

For example, on twitter a Mélenchon voter said that an Austrian poll done by the BIFIE (a think-tank on education I believe) has Le Pen and Mélenchon in the lead

You have also this fantasy of polls done by the domestic intelligence service (they used the acronyme RG, Renseignements généraux, which doesn't exist since 2008)

A classic, the internet poll

And this time a Canadian firm has the favors of Fillon's supporters, it mesures the impact of social media. And it's so right because they predicted Trump (which they didn't), the Brexit (which they didn't), and Fillon's victory in the primary (and they also predicted that Sarkozy will be in the runoff)

The Bifie is part of the Austrian Ministry of Education.

They provide the high school graduation questions for example.

They would never poll the French presidential race though.

[Tirnam]

Last Ifop update (1/3 post-terror attack)

Macron: 24.5% (+0.5)
Le Pen: 22.5 (=)
Fillon: 19.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (=)
Hamon: 7% (=)
Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=)
Poutou: 1.5% (=)
The others: at 1% or under.

Odoxa, post-terror attack
Macron: 24.5% (-0.5, before the attack)
Le Pen: 23% (+1)
Fillon: 19% (-0.5)
Mélenchon: 19% (-0.5)
Hamon: 7.5% (+1.5)
Dupont-Aignan: 4.5% (+0.5)
The others at 1% or under.

No impact so far after the terror attack

[Former President tack50]

I was actually thinking just earlier today that ISIS had been very quiet lately...it's been many months since they've done anything major

 
  
In Europe and NA maybe but don't forget that the church bombings in Egypt with 45 casualties was less then two weeks ago. And even when we include the west: The attack at Westminster happened less then a month ago.  
  
And when I google for prevented terror attacks I find quite a few recent ones. Vienna, Venedig, Paris, Göttingen, Las Palmas to name a few.

WTF!? What happened there? I don't remember any terrorist attacks in Las Palmas, not just in recient history, but ever.

Edit: Oh, prevented terror attacks. Then yeah, the police has arrested a couple of terrorists here. The Guardia Civil is doing a suprsisngly good job protecting Spain from terrorism (I guess decades of training with ETA help)

[Mike88]

I was actually thinking just earlier today that ISIS had been very quiet lately...it's been many months since they've done anything major

 
  
In Europe and NA maybe but don't forget that the church bombings in Egypt with 45 casualties was less then two weeks ago. And even when we include the west: The attack at Westminster happened less then a month ago.  
  
And when I google for prevented terror attacks I find quite a few recent ones. Vienna, Venedig, Paris, Göttingen, Las Palmas to name a few.

WTF!? What happened there? I don't remember any terrorist attacks in Las Palmas, not just in recient history, but ever.

I think it was these guys: Movimiento por la Autodeterminación e Independencia del Archipiélago Canario (MPAIAC)

According to Wikipedia they bombed the offices of the South African Airways in 1977 and in March 27 1977 they bombed a flower shop in Las Palmas airport that made autorities close the airport and indirectly provoked the Los Rodeos airplane accident.

[Former President tack50]

I was actually thinking just earlier today that ISIS had been very quiet lately...it's been many months since they've done anything major

 
  
In Europe and NA maybe but don't forget that the church bombings in Egypt with 45 casualties was less then two weeks ago. And even when we include the west: The attack at Westminster happened less then a month ago.  
  
And when I google for prevented terror attacks I find quite a few recent ones. Vienna, Venedig, Paris, Göttingen, Las Palmas to name a few.

WTF!? What happened there? I don't remember any terrorist attacks in Las Palmas, not just in recient history, but ever.

I think it was these guys: Movimiento por la Autodeterminación e Independencia del Archipiélago Canario (MPAIAC)

According to Wikipedia they bombed the offices of the South African Airways in 1977 and in March 27 1977 they bombed a flower shop in Las Palmas airport that made autorities close the airport and indirectly provoked the Los Rodeos airplane accident.

Oh, yeah, forgot about that, but they only ever killed one guy directly. They were involved in that huge plane accident though.

But it was about prevented attacks which have actually happened

[America Needs R'hllor]

Last Ifop update (1/3 post-terror attack)

Macron: 24.5% (+0.5)
Le Pen: 22.5 (=)
Fillon: 19.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (=)
Hamon: 7% (=)
Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=)
Poutou: 1.5% (=)
The others: at 1% or under.

Odoxa, post-terror attack
Macron: 24.5% (-0.5, before the attack)
Le Pen: 23% (+1)
Fillon: 19% (-0.5)
Mélenchon: 19% (-0.5)
Hamon: 7.5% (+1.5)
Dupont-Aignan: 4.5% (+0.5)
The others at 1% or under.

No impact so far after the terror attack

If Dupont-Aignan somehow passes Hamon, it would be hilarious. Hilarious and sad.

[Gass3268]

Can't imagine Trump is that popular in France:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Middle-aged Europe]

^^ "What's going on" is Trump's code word for MUZLIMS!!, right??

[SPQR]

Last Ifop update (1/3 post-terror attack)

Macron: 24.5% (+0.5)
Le Pen: 22.5 (=)
Fillon: 19.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (=)
Hamon: 7% (=)
Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=)
Poutou: 1.5% (=)
The others: at 1% or under.

Odoxa, post-terror attack
Macron: 24.5% (-0.5, before the attack)
Le Pen: 23% (+1)
Fillon: 19% (-0.5)
Mélenchon: 19% (-0.5)
Hamon: 7.5% (+1.5)
Dupont-Aignan: 4.5% (+0.5)
The others at 1% or under.

No impact so far after the terror attack

If Dupont-Aignan somehow passes Hamon, it would be hilarious. Hilarious and sad.

I'm way more worried about him collapsing in favour of Fillon.

[TheSaint250]

^^ "What's going on" is Trump's code word for MUZLIMS!!, right??

Or "code word" for terrorism.  But whatever floats your boat