2017 French Presidential Election
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 04:49:06 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  2017 French Presidential Election
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 30 31 32 33 34 [35] 36 37 38 39
Author Topic: 2017 French Presidential Election  (Read 103091 times)
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,178
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #850 on: April 21, 2017, 01:57:03 PM »

Or "code word" for terrorism.  But whatever floats your boat

Short of resigning there isn't a thing in the world which Trump could do to "float my boat".
Logged
Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 599
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #851 on: April 21, 2017, 03:28:14 PM »

So each institute has released its final poll.

Macron is between 23% and 24.5%
Le Pen is between 21% and 23%
Fillon is between 18.5% and 21%
Mélenchon is between 18.5% and 19.5%
Hamon is between 7.5% and 8%
Logged
I Won - Get Over It
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 632
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #852 on: April 21, 2017, 03:44:49 PM »

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-french-election-is-way-too-close-to-call/
The French Election Is Way Too Close To Call

1 Error is about 3%, probably 5-9
2 Multi-way races are the most error-prone
3 Pollsters may be herding
4 Run-off will probably be boring.


Conclusion: We don't really know who'll get to the run-off, but once we know, we'll probably know the winner.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #853 on: April 21, 2017, 03:48:53 PM »

What time should exit polls be expected again?
Logged
parochial boy
parochial_boy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,114


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #854 on: April 21, 2017, 03:52:29 PM »

8pm. Technically not an exit poll, but a projection based on actual vote counts at a selection of the polling stations (outside big cities) that close at 7pm.
Logged
I Won - Get Over It
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 632
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #855 on: April 21, 2017, 03:53:12 PM »

What time should exit polls be expected again?


http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/21/france-election-le-pen-macron-vote.html
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #856 on: April 21, 2017, 03:56:13 PM »

Oh nice, then I will definitely be making a croque monsieur for lunch on Sunday.
Logged
Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 599
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #857 on: April 21, 2017, 04:08:16 PM »

What time should exit polls be expected again?
The projections (which is based on real results, not a poll) will be released at 8pm, if everything is okay.

There are two uncertainties:
-Will the pollsters have enough time to collect the result and calculate their projections? This year they will have only one hour, not two. I read that to be sure to have a projection at 8pm the pollsters will double their selected polling stations where they collect the first results. At 8pm it will be also the first projection while in the past it was the second or third actualization, it might be less accurate.
-We always had in France a clear picture of the result at 8pm, this time it could be different, the media are preparing for a "too close to call" situation, so instead of 2 faces at 8pm we could see one (if only one candidate is sure to be in the runoff), or three, or four.

Also the pollsters have confirmed to the national commission of polls that they will not conduct any exit poll Sunday, so there is absolutely no way to have any idea of the result before 8pm.
Logged
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,286


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #858 on: April 21, 2017, 04:38:27 PM »

What time should exit polls be expected again?
The projections (which is based on real results, not a poll) will be released at 8pm, if everything is okay.

There are two uncertainties:
-Will the pollsters have enough time to collect the result and calculate their projections? This year they will have only one hour, not two. I read that to be sure to have a projection at 8pm the pollsters will double their selected polling stations where they collect the first results. At 8pm it will be also the first projection while in the past it was the second or third actualization, it might be less accurate.
-We always had in France a clear picture of the result at 8pm, this time it could be different, the media are preparing for a "too close to call" situation, so instead of 2 faces at 8pm we could see one (if only one candidate is sure to be in the runoff), or three, or four.

Also the pollsters have confirmed to the national commission of polls that they will not conduct any exit poll Sunday, so there is absolutely no way to have any idea of the result before 8pm.

In 2002, was it considered certain at 8pm that Jospin was out of the runoff and Le Pen in?
Logged
Umengus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,474
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #859 on: April 21, 2017, 04:42:24 PM »

bva poll (thursday and friday)

Macron 23 (-1)
Marine 23 (=)
Melanchon 19,5 (+0,5)
Fillon 19 (=)
Hamon 8 (-0,5)
NDA 4 (+0,5)

6 % did not express
29% dit not express or can change their vote

86% (=) of Le Pen voters are sure
85 (+4) of Fillon voters
73 (-1) of Macron voters
70 (-5) of Melanchon voters
62 (+4) of Hamon voters

Odoxa poll (60 % of the poll after the terrorist attack)

Macron 24,5
Marine 23 (+1)
Fillon 19
Melanchon 19
Hamon 7,5
Logged
Umengus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,474
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #860 on: April 21, 2017, 04:43:39 PM »

What time should exit polls be expected again?
The projections (which is based on real results, not a poll) will be released at 8pm, if everything is okay.

There are two uncertainties:
-Will the pollsters have enough time to collect the result and calculate their projections? This year they will have only one hour, not two. I read that to be sure to have a projection at 8pm the pollsters will double their selected polling stations where they collect the first results. At 8pm it will be also the first projection while in the past it was the second or third actualization, it might be less accurate.
-We always had in France a clear picture of the result at 8pm, this time it could be different, the media are preparing for a "too close to call" situation, so instead of 2 faces at 8pm we could see one (if only one candidate is sure to be in the runoff), or three, or four.

Also the pollsters have confirmed to the national commission of polls that they will not conduct any exit poll Sunday, so there is absolutely no way to have any idea of the result before 8pm.

In 2002, was it considered certain at 8pm that Jospin was out of the runoff and Le Pen in?

yes
Logged
Tirnam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 599
France


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #861 on: April 21, 2017, 04:56:16 PM »

The Odoxa poll is entirely after the terror attack. The poll done before the attack hasn't be released

Unbelievable: Fillon might give back the money perceived by his wife and children if he is elected
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #862 on: April 22, 2017, 02:46:34 AM »

Here's a map of the 2015 regionals by town (I guess rural France will deliver strongly for Le Pen tomorrow and the map could be even further dark-blue):

Logged
mvd10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,709


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: -2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #863 on: April 22, 2017, 05:04:34 AM »

So, to me the question is if France's voting pattern will mirror the more moderate Dutch parliamentary one or the more extremist Austrian one from the 1st round of the Presidential election ...

Austria's 1st round was held at the height of the migrant inflow and the ongoing security debate after the Cologne rapes. The far-right candidate polled 22-24% and got 35% in the end.

On the other hand, you have the Dutch vote in which voters opted for the centrist parties rather than the far-right, despite Turkish agitation and violence on the street a couple days before. The far-right gained a bit, but was mostly sidelined.

I think France will be somewhere in the middle tomorrow, Le Pen outperforming her polls by 5% at the most. She also has some far-left competition with Melenchon when it comes to workers votes and Fillon is much stronger than Khol (ÖVP) ever was, despite all his scandals. So she'll never hit 30% or the 35% of Hofer.

France doesn't have the migration flood and immigrant rapes etc. that Austria experienced, but has to deal with constant terror threats and still high unemployment and suffers from the same rural disintegration in many parts like Austrian small towns do, which could boost Le Pen. I'm just not sure though if Melenchon's support is real this time or overblown just like in 2012, giving the additional points to Le Pen instead.

The PVV didn't really underperform the polls in the Dutch election though. They were polling at something like 22 seats and they got 20 seats. The main surprise was the VVD (centre-right party) massively overperforming the polls, but the reason for that was the row with Turkey. I'm not sure whether the terror attack in France can be a game changer like the row with Turkey was in the Netherlands.
Logged
Zanas
Zanas46
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,947
France


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #864 on: April 22, 2017, 05:10:32 AM »

So the first voters have started voting... in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon. It's on, fellows, for better or worst.
Logged
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,380


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #865 on: April 22, 2017, 05:22:07 AM »

If Dupont-Aignan somehow passes Hamon, it would be hilarious. Hilarious and sad.

I wouldn't be particularly shocked to see Hamon doing worse than Gaston Defferre in 1969, which was a nail to SFIO's coffin.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #866 on: April 22, 2017, 05:23:29 AM »

So the first voters have started voting... in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon. It's on, fellows, for better or worst.

5.000 eligible voters.

BOOM !
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #867 on: April 22, 2017, 05:33:10 AM »

Austrian Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) endorses Macron ... and not Hamon:

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5205246/Kern_Ich-bin-kein-Masochist
Logged
Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,891
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #868 on: April 22, 2017, 05:56:10 AM »


For all what's worth Pablo Iglesias here endorsed Melenchon, but that was totally expected.
Logged
parochial boy
parochial_boy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,114


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #869 on: April 22, 2017, 06:51:01 AM »

I'm very interested in seeing how Guyane votes. Probably a minuscule turn out
Logged
Umengus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,474
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #870 on: April 22, 2017, 08:25:15 AM »
« Edited: April 22, 2017, 08:27:19 AM by Umengus »

last poll (the newspaper "tribune de genève" doesn't say wich polling firm is). The majority of polled after the terrorist attack.

Macron 24 (-0,5)
Marine 23 (+1)
Fillon 20,5 (+1)
Melanchon (-0,5)
Hamon 7
NDA 3
Asselineau 1
Lasalle 1

the pollster say that there is a (minor) boost for Marine and Fillon due to the terrorist attack.
Logged
Polkergeist
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 457


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #871 on: April 22, 2017, 08:30:33 AM »

Is there any chance of a further squeeze on Hamon and/or Dupont-Aignan voters towards the four front runners?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #872 on: April 22, 2017, 08:35:42 AM »
« Edited: April 22, 2017, 08:58:07 AM by Hash »

last poll (the newspaper "tribune de genève" doesn't say wich polling firm is). The majority of polled after the terrorist attack.

Macron 24 (-0,5)
Marine 23 (+1)
Fillon 20,5 (+1)
Melanchon (-0,5)
Hamon 7
NDA 3
Asselineau 1
Lasalle 1

the pollster say that there is a (minor) boost for Marine and Fillon due to the terrorist attack.

The full boost will only materialize tomorrow I guess.
Logged
Donnie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 351


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #873 on: April 22, 2017, 08:50:37 AM »

Final prediction:

25% Le Pen
23% Fillon
-----------------
23% Macron
17% Melenchon
  7% Hamon
  3% Dupont
  2% Others
Logged
Umengus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,474
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #874 on: April 22, 2017, 08:51:45 AM »

Is there any chance of a further squeeze on Hamon and/or Dupont-Aignan voters towards the four front runners?

it's a possibility...
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 30 31 32 33 34 [35] 36 37 38 39  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.053 seconds with 12 queries.