2017 French Presidential Election

[Tender Branson]

I think the Macron and Melenchon vote from the polls will not fully materialize tomorrow, much like the VdB and Griss* votes did not. Macron's 2-3% will likely go to Fillon in the end and Melenchon's 3-4% will go to Le Pen. As well as 1% from Dupont.

*I voted for centrist Griss in round one here, but I knew that it wouldn't be enough for her to reach the runoff. I'd also vote for Macron, but I don't think he might get there after all.

A month or 2 ago I thought that Le Pen vs. Fillon would never happen, but tomorrow we might just get that ...

[Tirnam]

Turnout at noon in St-Pierre et Miquelon

25.4% (+1.25 compared to 2012)

[Velasco]

Melenchon's 3-4% will go to Le Pen.

Van der Bellen the Frenchie will lose 3-4% to French Hofer. Isn't it?

[rob in cal]

  Assuming Le Pen is one of the finalists, the battle for the other spot, and thus very likely becoming the next President, reminds me of the 1932 Democratic Convention in Chicago. Whoever came out of that as the nominee was considered a strong favorite to defeat Hoover and thus be the next President.

[ApatheticAustrian]

if macron fails, it is not cause of the terror attack, but cause fillon's voters were shy to start with and macron's voters didn't care enough.

[Beezer]

The greatest comeback?

[DL]

Message to people with theories about "shy voters"... virtually all of the polls in France were conducted online. While it's possible that due to "social desirably bias" could make people shy about telling a live interviewer that they are voting LePen or Fillon, but there is no reason for anyone to be shy or self-conscious about their vote when completing an online survey with no human interaction

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Austrian Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) endorses Macron ... and not Hamon:

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5205246/Kern_Ich-bin-kein-Masochist

For all what's worth Pablo Iglesias here endorsed Melenchon, but that was totally expected.

For Kern it's probably "anybody but Le Pen" tan anything else.

[parochial boy]

Message to people with theories about "shy voters"... virtually all of the polls in France were conducted online. While it's possible that due to "social desirably bias" could make people shy about telling a live interviewer that they are voting LePen or Fillon, but there is no reason for anyone to be shy or self-conscious about their vote when completing an online survey with no human interaction

The problem is less "shy voters" and more the potential that pollsters have got their samples wrong. Online panels in particular tend to be made up of people who are more interested in politics to begin with, and leave out the less interested/more abstentionist types; many of these will be less educated or "ouvriers", who are both strong Le Pen demographics.

Someone posted earlier that French pollster sample by quota, which might mitigate this somewhat, who knows?

[ApatheticAustrian]

in fact le pen's vote is totally uninteresting.

fillon's and macron's voters are the real deal.

[jaichind]

Message to people with theories about "shy voters"... virtually all of the polls in France were conducted online. While it's possible that due to "social desirably bias" could make people shy about telling a live interviewer that they are voting LePen or Fillon, but there is no reason for anyone to be shy or self-conscious about their vote when completing an online survey with no human interaction

The problem is less "shy voters" and more the potential that pollsters have got their samples wrong. Online panels in particular tend to be made up of people who are more interested in politics to begin with, and leave out the less interested/more abstentionist types; many of these will be less educated or "ouvriers", who are both strong Le Pen demographics.

Someone posted earlier that French pollster sample by quota, which might mitigate this somewhat, who knows?

Agreed. But would not the fact that FN was under-polled in 2012 had pollsters adjust their weights ?  After 2002 when FN was underestimated it seems pollsters adjusted their weights and as a result in 2007 FN over-polled so another adjustment was made and as a result FN was under-polled in 2012.  Would not 2017 then perhaps, using this pattern, have FN over-polled.  I tend to think that the Le Pen surge since 2012 has changed the structure of who votes FN so there is a chance of under-poll but overreaction to FN under-polling in 2012 most likely washed this out to where Le Pen will most likely perform where she is polling right now.  I suspect it is Fillon that is under-polling.

[Tirnam]

Turnout at noon in Guyana: 18.93% (-1.71 compared to 2012)

[parochial boy]

Message to people with theories about "shy voters"... virtually all of the polls in France were conducted online. While it's possible that due to "social desirably bias" could make people shy about telling a live interviewer that they are voting LePen or Fillon, but there is no reason for anyone to be shy or self-conscious about their vote when completing an online survey with no human interaction

The problem is less "shy voters" and more the potential that pollsters have got their samples wrong. Online panels in particular tend to be made up of people who are more interested in politics to begin with, and leave out the less interested/more abstentionist types; many of these will be less educated or "ouvriers", who are both strong Le Pen demographics.

Someone posted earlier that French pollster sample by quota, which might mitigate this somewhat, who knows?

Agreed. But would not the fact that FN was under-polled in 2012 had pollsters adjust their weights ?  After 2002 when FN was underestimated it seems pollsters adjusted their weights and as a result in 2007 FN over-polled so another adjustment was made and as a result FN was under-polled in 2012.  Would not 2017 then perhaps, using this pattern, have FN over-polled.  I tend to think that the Le Pen surge since 2012 has changed the structure of who votes FN so there is a chance of under-poll but overreaction to FN under-polling in 2012 most likely washed this out to where Le Pen will most likely perform where she is polling right now.  I suspect it is Fillon that is under-polling.

Oh yeah, totally agree that if anyone is likely to be underpolling it is most probably Fillon - he has an older, less "tech savvy" demographic, and I suspect that there will be quite a few people saying that they wouldn't vote for him in light of the corruption scandals who will return to the fold in the polling both.

For Le Pen, the 2015 regionals polling was pretty accurate for her; and I'm not sure the breakdown of who votes FN has changed overly dramatically in recent years (even Le Pen senior was getting his biggest scores from working class voters rural-left behind areas in his later years), I guess the big difference is the rise of the FN in the West.

[Tirnam]

Turnout at noon

Guadeloupe: 17.65% (+0.82)
Martinique: 13.93% (-4.3)

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Not sure why, but I definitely thought the election was today. Bummer. 24 more hours.

[Umengus]

I think the Macron and Melenchon vote from the polls will not fully materialize tomorrow, much like the VdB and Griss* votes did not. Macron's 2-3% will likely go to Fillon in the end and Melenchon's 3-4% will go to Le Pen. As well as 1% from Dupont.

*I voted for centrist Griss in round one here, but I knew that it wouldn't be enough for her to reach the runoff. I'd also vote for Macron, but I don't think he might get there after all.

A month or 2 ago I thought that Le Pen vs. Fillon would never happen, but tomorrow we might just get that ...

I bet again on macron. His voters are Bayrou-Hollande 2012 and it was 37 % of the voters.

[Former President tack50]

Turnout at noon

Guadeloupe: 17.65% (+0.82)
Martinique: 13.93% (-4.3)

Damn, 14% turnout! Is turnout in the outermost regions representative of the mainland? Because if so, Fillon is probably very happy.

[Zanas]

Turnout overseas is typically 20 points lower than mainland for presidential elections, except for a few special cases. But that's at the end of the day. Some mainland departments get 14% at noon as well.

On a general basis, don't read pretty much anything into any figures from the overseas zones.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

What time do we get results / start getting results?

[Tirnam]

Results from the overseas region will probably leak a few hours after the vote there.
Results from Metropolitan France, tomorrow 8pm local.

[Hydera]

2/3rds of Macron voters voted for Hollande or greens+melenchon in 2012. The remaining third are split between those that voted for Bayrou and Sarkozy(mainly the LR voters that would of voted for Fillon but was disgusted over penelopegate).

Only 50% of Bayrou voters in 2012 are voting for Macron but that should not be a surprise since Bayrou voters in 2012 split evenly between Hollande and Sarkozy.

[Zinneke]

2/3rds of Macron voters voted for Hollande or greens+melenchon in 2012. The remaining third are split between those that voted for Bayrou and Sarkozy(mainly the LR voters that would of voted for Fillon but was disgusted over penelopegate).

Only 50% of Bayrou voters in 2012 are voting for Macron but that should not be a surprise since Bayrou voters in 2012 split evenly between Hollande and Sarkozy.

I'd love to meet a 2012 Le Pen voter who will cast their ballot for Benoît Hamon on Sunday.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Melenchon is the best serious candidate for major office in a major country this decade. So infuriating he won't even make it to the 2nd round.

[SunSt0rm]

La Libre (Belgium) published a poll today, which is quite suprisingly. Dont know how trustful it is

Le Pen 26%
FIllon 22%
Macron 21%
Melenchon 17%

http://www.lalibre.be/actu/france/exclusif-presidentielle-francaise-decouvrez-le-dernier-sondage-a-quelques-heures-du-scrutin-58f9dacccd70e80512fbd23c

[Classic Conservative]

La Libre (Belgium) published a poll today, which is quite suprisingly. Dont know how trustful it is

Le Pen 26%
FIllon 22%
Macron 21%
Melenchon 17%

http://www.lalibre.be/actu/france/exclusif-presidentielle-francaise-decouvrez-le-dernier-sondage-a-quelques-heures-du-scrutin-58f9dacccd70e80512fbd23c

Woah there.