2017 French Presidential Election

[Zinneke]

I was not active at the time that I guess the thread vanished - sometime quite late last night - so I'm at a loss as to what happened to it.

[hint]Its a good opportunity to do a rundown of the candidates on the front page of this thread [/hint]

[Zinneke]

This thread is about France, not Austria.

Yes, but they have similar voting patterns.

Please do not delete stuff that don't fit your personal world-view. There's freedom of speech, no matter if you like that fact or not. Don't behave like Islamo-Fascist Erdogan and the likes ... Thx.

You really, really need to stop making everything about Austria...

I write what I want and not what others want me to write.

How did that work out at school for you?

[Zinneke]

First part of the debate is over.

Fillon as present as his wife in the National Assembly
Le Pen attacked by everyone (except Fillon)
Macron a little out of the debate the first hour but he had the best attack against Le Pen
Mélenchon is quite good attacking Le Pen and Fillon
Hamon attacked Le Pen with a good punchline "you are addicted to crime news" and Macron about money.

Le Pen is the strongest for me, unfortunately, she seems to always bring the debate towards the subjects she wants to dicuss, even if they are completely unrelated to the intention of the question.

Mélenchon is the sharpest, along with Hamon, but Hamon also looks incredibly scripted compared to the former, even if the script is reasonably good for the tired socialist arguments (just heard him talk about working hours again though) - he just looks like a party guy.

Fillon and Macron by far the weakest. Macron occasionally when he gets animated shows glimpses of interest but on policy he is too vague, which is what everybody feared. Fillon is just silent, he started strongly but now looks totally irrelevant.

[Zinneke]

Ugh, Hamon about unconditional basic income a little bit clueless.


And Le Pen is nothing close to the best, she all the time do not talk about the topic, she just talk about what she wants.

Yeah, but that's why she is the most convincing. The problem is she is lying through her teeth and nobody brought up the fact that single most powerful lobby on the floor today is the Russian one, backing her.

[Zinneke]

This board has certain rules which are explicitly set out, including the need to "contribute relevant content to the threads" and refraining "do not add any insightful value to the thread and discussion", and as is also explicitly set out, as moderator it is to my discretion how to treat such posts - and sometimes I choose to delete posts, without giving any 'infraction points'. The quality of discussion and analysis on the forum has shamefully collapsed in recent years, and this board is one of the few boards which still retains some level of interesting and relevant intelligent analysis, and I really intend to keep it that way. Ceaseless "Let me tell you how it is done in Austria!" posts are not helpful and contribute nothing to this thread, particularly when there's already an active thread about Austria where such posts would obviously be more than welcome (and please don't pretend that you're doing comparative politics, because that's not what comparative politics is). For that reason, for example, I won't go about making "Let me tell you how it is done in Canada!" posts in a thread about Austria, because posts like that wouldn't add any insightful value to the discussion.

Throwing around your favourite little epithets willy-nilly isn't helpful to anyone here and really doesn't elevate the quality of debate, which isn't very high to begin with on this forum. Nor are little "I can do what I want!" fits.

That's all I will say on this topic. If you wish to discuss it further, you may send me a PM.

you are hostage of your left convictions...

Hashemite, I will not lecture you on how to run the forum, but the first measure that would improve the debate exponentially would be to take off the flairs. Everybody here is accused of bias.

[Zinneke]

This board has certain rules which are explicitly set out, including the need to "contribute relevant content to the threads" and refraining "do not add any insightful value to the thread and discussion", and as is also explicitly set out, as moderator it is to my discretion how to treat such posts - and sometimes I choose to delete posts, without giving any 'infraction points'. The quality of discussion and analysis on the forum has shamefully collapsed in recent years, and this board is one of the few boards which still retains some level of interesting and relevant intelligent analysis, and I really intend to keep it that way. Ceaseless "Let me tell you how it is done in Austria!" posts are not helpful and contribute nothing to this thread, particularly when there's already an active thread about Austria where such posts would obviously be more than welcome (and please don't pretend that you're doing comparative politics, because that's not what comparative politics is). For that reason, for example, I won't go about making "Let me tell you how it is done in Canada!" posts in a thread about Austria, because posts like that wouldn't add any insightful value to the discussion.

Throwing around your favourite little epithets willy-nilly isn't helpful to anyone here and really doesn't elevate the quality of debate, which isn't very high to begin with on this forum. Nor are little "I can do what I want!" fits.

That's all I will say on this topic. If you wish to discuss it further, you may send me a PM.

you are hostage of your left convictions...

Hashemite, I will not lecture you on how to run the forum, but the first measure that would improve the debate exponentially would be to take off the flairs. Everybody here is accused of bias.

because everybody has bias. The problem is when moderators have bias...

Sure, but part of the bias is fed by the fact that we wear flairs with X-XX and basically feel necessary to justify this from the very start, even unconsciously.

That the moderators have bias is inevitable, and unfortunate (like your sig for example, that post I would not ban, but I would ban posts that deliberately look to disrupt and provoke) but this forum is like a private property that is entrusted to the moderators to govern. Nothing we can do about that other than go on other forums, which they would probably welcome.

[Zinneke]

https://imgur.com/Qf6KtvK

By the way, any poll is to be taken with a pinch of salt, including the ones that have been towed here, because France Info have found that loads of people turn down pollsters as an act of protest. There's SME on a massive scale in France (and I'm one of those who didn't understand why Brexit was said to be a failure of the pollsters rather than the analysts). 

[Zinneke]

Your picture is a Facebook poll.

All the polls show the same trends, the same levels for every candidate. If there is a big polling problem in France how polls can be exactly the same?

They all have the same SME, which is people turning down pollsters. Not me that says this, France Info.

[Zinneke]

A Socialist Minister Bruno Le Roux has been caught up in a similar scandal involving his 15 year old offspring claiming money for work. Some great quotes from Jean-Christophe Cambadelis, who said he shouldn't resign because "he is not running for President, and François Fillon's campaign spokesman, who said he should resign.

The above is exactly why I think some frenchmen are going for Macron as an anti-systeme candidate. Even if he is a hybrid of the above, his victory ensures a return to De Gaulle vision of a President above the parties. Him and Le Pen qualifying will split the PS for obvious reasons and LR (I think the ni-ni policy towards FN in the legislatives will split them, if not a Macron presidency).

[Zinneke]

Rtbf say 3000 people attended Hamon meeting in Brussels.
Would be interested to know what kind of figures Macron musters in London and Brussels.

[Zinneke]

Also it worth notice that Dupont-Aignan reaches the 5% threshold in two polls (Elabe poll yesterday and Ifop tracking)

Is there any explanation for this?

Constant barrages of negative news about Fillon coupled with "traditional right" voters having nowhere else to go?

He's also been on several TV sets, walking out of one for not having been invited.
He's using his exposure early to try and usurp Fillon.

[Zinneke]

Hollande "condemns with the utmost firmness the false allegations of Fillon"

Fillon made also a disgusting comparison by saying that his situation made him think of Bérégovoy (French PM who committed suicide after an electoral defeat and some scandal)

Bérégovoy was a very strange suicide and totally different to Fillon. He's completely lost it but the LR is not powerful enough.

[Zinneke]

Hollande "condemns with the utmost firmness the false allegations of Fillon"

Fillon made also a disgusting comparison by saying that his situation made him think of Bérégovoy (French PM who committed suicide after an electoral defeat and some scandal)

For the record he was assassinated.

Bérégovoy was a very strange suicide and totally different to Fillon. He's completely lost it but the LR is not powerful enough.

Not according to the official report. But yeah, sketchy.

[Zinneke]

By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment?

If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022.

This. There will be some recomposition between 3 poles: the left (Mélenchon/Hamon electorate) , the center (around Macron) and the far right (Fillon/Le Pen)

Is Fillon really in the same category as Le Pen? By now he has become a complete joke but ideologically I wouldn't put him in the same category as Le Pen. He is very right-wing on immigration and social issues but I'm not sure whether that really makes him far-right. I'd only use that term for people like Trump, Wilders and Le Pen.

No way on policy issues is Fillon far right, but commentators have noted how he has changed his style a lot since Pénélopegate. He used to be seen as calm collected and focussing on policy. Now he is very much looking at Sarkozy, who was in a similar position in 2012 campaign, and swung to the far right. Fillon's problem is that he will has come across a PS opposition to unite the hard Right.

[Zinneke]

and ofc an euro-sceptic putin-fan.

He is a Putin fan (they were on good terms when both were PMs of their respective countries) but not a eurosceptic. He just has a certain vision of a France-dominated, more intergovernmental Europe. Was De Gaulle a eurosceptic?

[Zinneke]

I've a question:

I'm in no illusion that Macron will become the next President. But what will that mean for the upcoming parliament election a few weeks later?

Will he reunite with PS and promote them? Will his party/movement run their own candidates?

He has said he will look for cross-party alliance. He is also running his own candidates but he seems under no illusion that he will not get a majority.

Several scenarios possible, and I also think they will keep in mind how they can deal with the FN for next election :

1. The PS breaks up (which looks almost certain now) and Macron manages to get the support of the renamed right-wing of the PS, Modem, PRG, maybe UDI and his own party, which could be enough for a majority. The LR stays as it is and stays in opposition to reorganise itself. FN are too weak to force a Grand Coalition.

Likelihood of happening : medium.
Likelihood of FN gaining in 2022 : low

2. The LR breaks up, the Juppéistes join Macron, some of the right-wing PS and Modem in forming a centrist alliance to back Macron's policies to an extent. In return someone from the Juppé clan or Bayrou is made PM. In this scenario it is likely that the FN are too strong or that the French political Right has a plurality big enough for Macron to have to take them into account.

Likelihood of happening : high
Likelihood of FN gaining in 2022 : medium


3. FN gets enough seats to force a grand coalition between the republican forces, dominated by the PS remnant and the LR remnant to support Macron.

Likelihood of happening : medium.
Likelihood of FN gaining in 2022 : high

4. PS and LR effectively disintegrate as political force entirely and the French political scene is reformed. Macron wins a majority with En March-Modem. Either FN or a hard right branch of LR in the Sarkozyste mould becomes the opposition along with the hard left.

Likelihood of happening : medium-low.
Likelihood of FN gaining in 2022 : high.


I think despite the above, what we will probably see is something similar to Spain, a majoritarian democracy that struggles to find compromises in their new consociational context. Remember Macron can dissolve the Assembly mid-term if he wants to.

THe ultimate fear of the traditional parties and commentators alike is that French politics polarises itself around two figures : Le Pen's niece and Macron.

[Zinneke]

Who is Lassalle? He was a member of MoDem, so I can assume he can be described as a centrist. Is it true? Does he fit any label at all? It also seems he uses elements of Occitan regionalism/nationalism.

THe core of his message seems to be the province vs the metropole. He's a bit of a meme small candidate who does funny interviews and ads, but it would be interesting to see what his program is about.

Also, I have a question for the French, is Lassalle's region Occitania or Basque Country, culturally at least?

[Zinneke]

Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income).

This is obviously false. The main cleavage is that the former has been a minister during the finishing quinquennat, has a whole lot of former ministers or even outgoing ministers and deputies around him as candidates for the législatives, and is trying very hard to appear as different from the outgoing majority whereas he is just the exact same thing and would do the exact same sh**t. The latter is by any means not perfection, but at least he doesn't have Cazeneuve or El Khomri as candidates behind him.

God I hate the PS.

What you described is an opposition on politics, not ideology, on that level, beside the EU and maybe foreign affairs, Mélenchon and Hamon are practically on the same level.
And we could argue that Hamon vote for a motion of non-confidence against the Valls' government. (And after gets outraged when Valls doesn't want to support him)

That's absurd dude. They have clearly quite different ideologies. Zanas was entirely talking about hamons ideology.

What are their ideological differences? They were in the same fringe wing of the PS until Mélenchon left. For me its a difference in style rather than politics.

[Zinneke]

Valls will vote for Macron

Excellent!
But beware of an intra-party revolt.

I wonder if Cambadélis will send a strong worded letter to Valls, saying he is effectively no longer a PS candidate.

[Zinneke]

I still think the Right has a majority in France, and that Le Pen is being slightly underpolled, based on FranceInfo, that well known FN radio station, saying there is evidence of voters turning down pollsters. Two factors that weigh against Macron.

Also, I recall the figures showing Macron had the most uncertain voters.

So is there any chance that Macron wins the presidency but the right somehow manages to win a majority in parliament? Would it lead to a new cohabitation? It's probably not going to happen, the legislative elections are going to be in Macron's honeymoon and people probably will rally behind him, but on the other hand his party doesn't have the same party machine as LR or PS.

I think its distinctly possible but that Macron will try to break up the two machines first.

[Zinneke]

As I've already said, there's no conclusive evidence of significant or persistent underpolling for the FN. Panzergirl slightly overperformed her last polling numbers in 2012, although the difference was never very large and probably within the margin of error. Since then, polling for the FN has been right on the spot or very close in both 2014 and 2015, when it wasn't any more or less 'shameful' to tell a pollster you backed the FN.

Since then, there is a new phenomena in the anti-establishment Right (and by that I am not just talking about the FN) though, which is the idea that the pollsters are part of the left-liberal establishment, and that they cannot be trusted.

Last week of polling for Fillon had him just a few points ahead of  Juppe and Sarkozy, and the final result had him well ahead of them. Unless he gained massive momentum due to his electability, there is just one example of the French pollsters underpolling in the Right.

[Zinneke]

There's a major difference, one which should be pretty obvious, between polling for an election which will draw some 30 million voters and a primary, even a high turnout one, which draws at most 4-5 million voters.

I'm pretty confused.

You are contesting that the same phenomenon cannot have a similar skewering of polling of two separate events, especially as the two populations overlap?

Also, in general, population size has no effect on the accuracy of their samples, variability does. There are exceptions, but something tells me 4-5million is x enough times larger than their samples for their sample to not have potentially missed out on a key margin. So that systemic error is rectified. Some other one must have been present. Shy right-wingers? who knows. I still remain a pessimist, maybe that's me systemic error in general.

[Zinneke]

they should probably stop publishing Fillon v. Le Pen polls then.

Well, I believe that a majority of pollsters publish only Macron-Le Pen polls now.

Has anyone polled a Len Pen-Melenchon second round, out of curiosity?

Maybe, but we won't know. French laws forbid to publish unrealistic runoff poll.

How could you have a law against polling an "unrealistic run-off"? Aren't polling companies free to pose any question they want?

They can pose any question they want, in fact Hamon insists that polls show him ahead of Le Pen in a runoff, but they can't publish them.
The law said that a second round poll must be published with a first round poll (so the second round poll has to be coherent with the first round poll).
Polls are "supervised" by an independent commission, which has constantly ruled against the publication of unrealistic runoff poll.

I'm struggling to see the logic. What do they risk subverting if they publish a run-off poll that is unrealistic?

[Zinneke]

Public warning by the commission. If the polling institute refuse to submit, the commission can decide to engage legal actions.

But the commission and the polling institutes work in cooperation, public warning are rare, and polling institutes follow the recommandations of the commission (as for example, you don't see any "unrealistic" runoff scenario)

By what do they risk I meant also what potential impact on the race?

[Zinneke]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

Who are you talking about in both cases?