2017 French Presidential Election

[Tirnam]

If you look in the last two presidential election the polls around the 20th March were very close to the actual result.

A few example:
2012 (Ifop, 20th March): Hollande 28%, Sarkozy 27.5%, Le Pen 17,5% (second round: Hollande 54%). That was pretty close to the actual result
2007 (Ipsos, 22nd March): Sarkozy 30.5%, Royal 25.5%, Bayrou 18.5% (second round: Sarkozy 53%). Very close to the actual result

Of course 2002 is a perfect counterexample.

Now this election is particular:
-Abstention is, at this day, projected to be massive
-Many people who will vote are quite undecided (around 40% could change their minds)
-For the first time there will be 3 debates before the first round (the first is tomorrow). The debates could mobilize more people to vote and change the dynamics of the race.

Macron's voters were the most undecided voters a few weeks ago, that's no longer the case, but it's still between 50%-40% of them who could change their votes. That's why a poll yesterday indicated that Macron could be as low as 13.5% but as high as 35% in the first round.

For me I think that the probabilities of a Macron victory are around 60%

[Tirnam]

The TV set for tomorrow's debate

[Tirnam]

Also if 40% of Macron's voters could change their minds that's because he is polling high. It's more easy for Fillon to have a strong electorate when he is only at 19%.
Macron could lose some votes to Hamon and maybe Fillon, he could still win more from Hamon, 40% of Hamon's voters could also change their minds.

i really can't see 63-37 in second round. most of fillon supporters will probably vote for le pen in the runoff and many of melanchon also.

According to the polls only 5 to 10% of Mélenchon's voters would vote for Le Pen in a Macron/Le Pen runoff. A majority of them could abstain but not vote for Le Pen. I'm not even sure they will abstain, in the left the will to defeat Le Pen is stronger than abstention.

Odoxa poll, for France 2

Macron: 26.5% (-0.5 since March 3rd)
Le Pen: 26% (+0.5)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Hamon: 12.5% (-1.5)
Mélenchon: 10.5% (+0.5)

Second round
Macron 64% (+3), Le Pen 36%
Fillon 57% (-0.5), Le Pen 43%

[Tirnam]

Kantar-Sofres poll for Le Figaro

Macron: 26% (+1, since March 4th)
Le Pen: 26% (=)
Fillon: 17% (=)
Hamon: 12% (-4)
Mélenchon: 12% (=)

A 9-points gap between Fillon and a qualification for the runoff must be a record. Only OpinionWay has Fillon at 20% now.
Hamon drops in every poll, in danger to go behind Mélenchon.

The candidate would be a good president
Macron: Yes 47%, No 44%
Fillon: Yes 29%, No 64%
Le Pen: Yes 29%, No 65%
Hamon: Yes 28%, No 63%
Mélenchon: Yes 24%, No 69%

[Tirnam]

According to Le Monde speaking time since February 1st :

Fillon: 197 hours
Hamon: 142 hours
Macron: 127 hours
Le Pen: 111 hours
Mélenchon: 65 hours

If you missed him it's probably bad luck!

[Tirnam]

It's the speaking time of the candidate and its supporters.

For the total amount (candidate, supporters, and media conversation):
Fillon: 476 hours
Macron: 266 hours
Hamon: 209 hours
Le Pen: 207 hours
Mélenchon: 90 hours

[Tirnam]

So in terms of "indirect exposure" time it's:

279 Thatcherboy
139 FBM
96 Panzergirl
67 Hamon
25 Mélenchon

In other words, "F**k off, leftists, we have decided that this race is between corrupt mean neoliberal, pragmatic nice neoliberal, and big bad fascists."

The Fillon's scandal has obviously a considerable impact on that measure but the rules is to give to each candidate a "fair" speaking time according to their involvement in the campaign (polling numbers, previous results, rallies, etc.)

So except for Fillon those numbers seems fair to me (and remember that Hamon spent the whole month of February out of the campaign trail to work on an alliance with Jadot)

The candidates will have an equal speaking time on the 10th April.

Fillon & FBM downplaying the debate.

Strange for Fillon, it is his narrative "I won the primaries thanks to the debates, it will be the same with the general election". If he doesn't think the debates will change the dynamics of the race how he thinks he will regain votes?

[Tirnam]

Last polls before the debate

Trackings
OpinionWay
Le Pen: 27% (-1)
Macron: 23% (-2)
Fillon: 18% (-2)
Hamon: 13% (+1)
Mélenchon: 12% (+1)

Second round: Macron 60%, Le Pen 40%

Ifop
Le Pen: 26% (-0.5)
Macron: 25% (-1)
Fillon: 18% (=)
Hamon: 12.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 11.5% (+1)

Second round: Macron 60%, Le Pen 40%

Elabe
Macron: 25.5% (=, March 6th)
Le Pen: 25% (-1)
Fillon: 17.5% (-1.5)
Hamon: 13.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 13% (+1)

Second round: Macron 63%, Le Pen 37%

Polls by region
Macron takes the lead in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, tied in Centre.
Also Le Pen could win Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur (51% to Macron, in the second round)

[Tirnam]

Polls by region
Macron takes the lead in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, tied in Centre.
Also Le Pen could win Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur (51% to Macron, in the second round)

Where do you see the 2nd round numbers by region ?

I only see 1st round results ...

Here.
You have to see the results region by region.

in Hauts-de-France it's Macron 55%, in Grand-Est and Bourgogne-Franche Comté Macron 56%

[Tirnam]

First part of the debate is over.

Fillon as present as his wife in the National Assembly
Le Pen attacked by everyone (except Fillon)
Macron a little out of the debate the first hour but he had the best attack against Le Pen
Mélenchon is quite good attacking Le Pen and Fillon
Hamon attacked Le Pen with a good punchline "you are addicted to crime news" and Macron about money.

[Tirnam]

Le Pen had a good start, for 30-40 minutes, but that's it. But for her it doesn't matter anyway. Her voters will vote for her, and she won't convince anybody else.

Mélenchon is really good to animate the debate, but his fight is really against Hamon. The majority will not agree with his proposals.

[Tirnam]

Your picture is a Facebook poll.

All the polls show the same trends, the same levels for every candidate. If there is a big polling problem in France how polls can be exactly the same?

[Tirnam]

The debate is (finally) over. The 2 next debates with 11 candidates will be horrible.

I have no idea of who won. Each candidate has some good or bad moment.

[Tirnam]

The debate is (finally) over. The 2 next debates with 11 candidates will be horrible.

I have no idea of who won. Each candidate has some good or bad moment.

I thought it was pretty clear that melanchon did very well.

Yes he did well, but I'm not sure he convinced a lot of people who aren't leftist. But in his fight against Hamon he did well.

[Tirnam]

BFM - Elabe flashpoll

Who was the most convincing?
Macron: 29%
Mélenchon: 20%
Fillon: 19%
Le Pen: 19%
Hamon: 11%

Best project for France?
Macron: 30%
Fillon: 20%
Le Pen: 19%

Best qualities to be president?
Macron: 31%
Fillon: 24%
Le Pen: 17%

[Tirnam]

Poll, OpinionWay for Le Point

Who convinced you the most?
Macron: 24%
Le Pen: 19%
Fillon: 19%
Mélenchon: 15%
Hamon: 10%

Do you have a better or worse opinion of the candidate?
Macron: better 29%, same 52, worse 19%
Mélenchon: better 27%, same 59%, worse: 14%
Hamon: better 18%, same 58%, worse: 24%
Le Pen: better 18, same 56%, worse 27%
Fillon: better 14%, same 55%, worse 30%

Honnest: Mélenchon 69%, Hamon 62%, Macron 59%, Le Pen 34%, Fillon 24%
Presidential: Macron 62%, Fillon 49%, Le Pen 38%, Mélenchon 35%, Hamon 33%
Authority: Mélenchon 67%, Le Pen 65%, Macron 63%, Fillon 59%, Hamon 32%
Credible: Macron 59%, Mélenchon 44%, Fillon 38%, Hamon 37%, Le Pen 36%
Understands the concerns of the French: Mélenchon 65%, Macron 56%, Le Pen 54%, Hamon 52%, Fillon 35%

[Tirnam]

Tracking polls

Opinionway (pre-debate)
Le Pen: 27% (=)
Macron: 24% (+1)
Fillon: 18% (=)
Hamon: 14% (+1)
Mélenchon: 11% (-1)

Second round: Macron 61% (+1), Le Pen 39%

Ifop (1/3 post-debate)
Le Pen: 26% (=)
Macron: 25.5% (+0.5)
Fillon: 17.5% (-0.5)
Hamon: 11.5% (-1)
Mélenchon: 11.5% (=)

Second round: Macron 60.5% (+0.5), Le Pen 39.5%

[Tirnam]

Fillon scandal: the judicial enquiry extended to aggravated scam and forgery and use of forgery

[Tirnam]

First post-debate poll
Elabe for BFM TV

Macron: 26% (+0.5)
Le Pen: 24.5% (-0.5)
Fillon: 17% (-0.5)
Mélenchon: 13.5% (+0.5)
Hamon: 11.5% (-2)

Second round: Macron 64%, Le Pen 36%

[Tirnam]

Fillon had access to his mobile phone during the debate and received texts from his communications advisor (Le Figaro, Le Parisien)

[Tirnam]

Poor Fillon, a month to hold, after he will be able to retire in his manor.

Tracking polls

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 26% (-1)
Macron: 24% (=)
Fillon: 19% (+1)
Hamon: 13% (-1)
Mélenchon: 12% (+1)

Second round
Macron: 62% (+1), Le Pen 38%

Ifop
Le Pen: 25.5% (-0.5)
Macron: 25.5% (=)
Fillon: 18% (+0.5)
Mélenchon: 12% (+0.5)
Hamon: 11% (-0.5)

Second round
Macron 61% (+0.5), Le Pen 39%

Also it worth notice that Dupont-Aignan reaches the 5% threshold in two polls (Elabe poll yesterday and Ifop tracking)

[Tirnam]

The financial and patrimonial situation of the candidates have been published (you can find them here)

And we learn that Fillon's daughter lends him €30,000 to pay his taxes.

[Tirnam]

Yes, the one who also gave 70% of her salaries to repay her wedding ceremony.

[Tirnam]

Poll, Harris Interactive for France Télévisions
Sample: 6,383 post-debate

Macron: 26% (=, since March 8th)
Le Pen: 25% (=)
Fillon: 18% (-2)
Mélenchon: 13.5% (+1.5)
Hamon: 12.5% (-0.5)

Second round
Macron 65% (=), Le Pen 35%

For the top 3 the polls are quite stable before and after the debate: Le Pen and Macron neck and neck, Fillon distant third, around 18%.
In the left Mélenchon has a momentum and moves ahead of Hamon, of course the fact that the is now the first candidate in the left could maintain his momentum.

[Tirnam]

It was expected but it's still big. Defense minister, Jean-Yves Le Dorian, will endorse Macron this afternoon.