2017 French Presidential Election (user search)
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Author Topic: 2017 French Presidential Election  (Read 104025 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: March 21, 2017, 05:36:14 PM »
Quote from: Çrĺbçćk on March 21, 2017, 04:36:58 PM
I misread that as "arrange a marriage".

At this rate, that will be the next Fillon scandal.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2017, 04:38:05 PM »
Tomorrow, Le Pen is going to...Moscow.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-03-23/le-pen-to-visit-moscow-as-russia-calls-her-political-realist?utm_content=politics&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-politics
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2017, 01:31:12 PM »
Bad (or sick) guy!
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2017, 08:41:19 PM »
What are the odds of each of these match-ups happening?

Macron/Le Pen
Macron/Fillon
Macron/Mélenchon
Fillon/Le Pen
Mélenchon/Fillon
Mélenchon/Le Pen

I'm guessing something like:
Macron/Le Pen - 77%
Mélenchon/Le Pen - 9%
Fillon/Le Pen - 8%
Macron/Fillon - 3%
Macron/Mélenchon - 2%
Mélenchon/Fillon - 1%
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #4 on: April 13, 2017, 02:54:54 PM »
Imagine if Le Pen underperforms a little, Fillon rises a bit, and Mélenchon takes a little more from Macron and Hamon and we get something like this:

Macron: 22%
Le Pen: 22%
Fillon: 22%
Mélenchon: 22%
Hamon: 6%
Others: 6%
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #5 on: April 16, 2017, 09:57:27 AM »
PredictIt odds:

Next President of France:
Macron - 54%
Le Pen - 29%
Mélenchon - 15%
Fillon - 12%

Odds of making the top 2:
Le Pen - 87%
Macron - 68%
Mélenchon - 28%
Fillon - 16%
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #6 on: April 17, 2017, 11:13:58 AM »
Nate Silver says he's worried about pollster herding. Look at how consistent these numbers are:



https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853998602754158592
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #7 on: April 17, 2017, 02:39:54 PM »
Le Terrain Poll: (lol)

Macron 24%
Mélanchon 22% (!)
Le Pen 21.5%
Fillon 17.5%
Hamon 8%
NDA 3.5%
Poutou 1.5%
Arthaud 1%
Lasalle 0.5%
Asselineau 0.5%


https://blog-scanresearch.leterrain.fr/2017/04/17/jl-melenchon-devance-de-peu-m-le-pen/
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2017, 03:48:53 PM »
What time should exit polls be expected again?
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #9 on: April 21, 2017, 03:56:13 PM »
Oh nice, then I will definitely be making a croque monsieur for lunch on Sunday.
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