2017 French Presidential Election

[parochial boy]

The other thread seems to have dissapeared (?) but today was quite important as the final candidates to have obtained 500 signatures have been declared; there will be 11 candidates standing in the first round (with numbers of signatures_:

ARTHAUD Nathalie   637   
ASSELINEAU François   587   
CHEMINADE Jacques   528   
DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas   707
FILLON François   3635   
HAMON Benoît   2039
LASSALLE Jean   708   
LE PEN Marine   627   
MACRON Emmanuel   1829
MELENCHON Jean-Luc   805
POUTOU Philippe 573

click here

Ouest France also has a pretty cool map where you can see where each candidate got their signature here

feel free to delete this if the old thread is about to make a comeback...

[parochial boy]

I think I was the OP from the other thread, but I don't know what happened.

https://web-beta.archive.org/web/20170108204647/https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?PHPSESSID=867b6895b62569a2c676d095a1d165cc&board=12.0

yes, you definitely were OP.

This is definitely a fault of the forum though - it's happened before where good discussion is permanently lost because of an accidental delete by mods or an OP.

All those posts argung about whether Macron is left wing or not, just dissapeared

[parochial boy]

On the old thread (RIP) there was a bit of discussion about the way young people were voting, and whether (or not), they were more inclined to vote FN than the rest of the population.

IFOP have now actually done some polling specifically of 18-25 year olds.

Key points are on pages 12 (first round) and page 15-16 (second round), but:

In the first round
Le Pen - 29% (2.5% better than all of France)
Macron - 28% (3% better)
Hamon - 15% (1% better)
Mélenchon - 14.5% (3% better)
Fillon - 11% (8% worse)

In the second round
Macron - 63%
Le Pen - 37%

Macron does 2.5% better than the whole of France. Out of a bunch of second round options, Mélenchon actually beats Le Pen 64-36; and Fillon by only 53-47.

So in conclusion, younger voters seem slightly more inclined to support Le Pen; but significantly more inclined to support the two left wing and one alleged left wing candidates.

[parochial boy]

Brittany continues to be the best region in France

[parochial boy]

Why is PACA so right-wing?

In a nutshell, pieds-noirs, the tourism industry, and strong anti-immigration sentiment. Gaël would have a lot more to say about it, of course.

I feel the influence of the pieds-noirs and the tourism industry is oversold somewhat. After all, if you look other touristy areas, like the ski resorts of Haute-Savoie, these are solidly conservative, but not particularly strong for the FN.

I think part of the reason is down to the number of old people in the region; but also the traditionally high number of artisans and small businessmen in PACA, who are a strong FN demographic.

[parochial boy]

Tomorrow's Canard: neo-Nazi secretly on FN payroll.

More importantly in tomorrow's Canard, Fillon and Putin.

Salauds de Journalopes

[parochial boy]

As with any debate, probably best to wait a week or two before we draw any conclusions.

[parochial boy]

I'm not sure if this was mentioned at the time, but two weeks ago, Robert Hue backed Macron.

The first Blairite-communist?

[parochial boy]

Christ, the PS really deserves to die

[parochial boy]

What is Melenchon's geographic base and how does it compare to Chevenement's geographic base in the past?

In 2002, most of Mélenchon's best results came from the South West and the Massif Central. Areas that are traditionally left wing, but not traditionally communist; although he did score above average in traditional communist areas like Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Bouches du Rhone and Allier, as well as the "red belt" working class suburbs of Paris.

A casual glance at Chevenement's results suggest he performed best in the East of France, in particular in working class areas in what is now Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, and fairly poorly in the areas that went on to give Mélenchon better numbers.

[parochial boy]

I still think the Right has a majority in France, and that Le Pen is being slightly underpolled, based on FranceInfo, that well known FN radio station, saying there is evidence of voters turning down pollsters. Two factors that weigh against Macron.

Also, I recall the figures showing Macron had the most uncertain voters.

So is there any chance that Macron wins the presidency but the right somehow manages to win a majority in parliament? Would it lead to a new cohabitation? It's probably not going to happen, the legislative elections are going to be in Macron's honeymoon and people probably will rally behind him, but on the other hand his party doesn't have the same party machine as LR or PS.

I think its distinctly possible but that Macron will try to break up the two machines first.

FranceInfo a FN radio? And you mean this article?
It's very hard to find any real evidence of a polling error in this article just some basic suspicions.
Practically all the polls show the same level for every candidate, the same trends. If there was a deep problem with the polls I don't think that a such consensus would exist.
Also, the same methodologies were used for the 2015 elections, in those elections FN underperformed the polls.

And now the certainty of the Macron's vote is up: 62% in IFOP (better than Mélenchon and Hamon), also 62% in the Elabe poll (same as Mélenchon, higher than Hamon)

Well there is a phenomena called herding. When polls seem to all be saying the same thing, and there aren't even any outliers to speak of, that starts to ring alarm bells.

[parochial boy]

2. Yes, it will falter. But the left-wing parties (Parti de Gauche or Parti Communiste or Front de Gauche) will take the lefties and En Marche ! will take the rest, a bit like how the PvdA support split between GroenLinks and D66.

I can't see that happening. The Parti de Gauche/La France Insoumise is basically a machine for Mélenchon in the way that En Marche! is for Macron, it will die the moment he steps down. And the PCF has long since stopped being at all relevant.

I'm not saying that there won't be a realignment, but the PS has the machine that no-one else on the left really has, I can't see it stopping to be relevant.

[parochial boy]

From the same poll,



Fillon voters split pretty equally between Le Pen and Macron; a big chunk of Fillon Melenchon voters abstain in the second round.

I guess that is pretty much what you'd expect, Fillon's left overs will be the hardcore - but I would expect Melenchon's more recent pick-ups to be more willing to vote for Macron in round two.

[parochial boy]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

Right guy at the wrong time sadly. At least the left wing occasionally wins in France, I can only dream...

[parochial boy]

A "shy Le Pen" will probably be limited to a couple of points at most. Remember that the FN have been polled in a lot of elections over recent years, and the polling has not generally been too outrageously inaccurate.

The real wildcard is still going to be Macron. He, and En Marche! have never stood before, so pollsters don't have any reliable data on who will actually turn out to vote for him that they can use to weight their polls, and no reliable indicators like people who have previously voted for or against him, so there is a potential that his numbers are way off.The fact that he is consistently around 25% is a little concerning I think, as it would seem like all the pollsters may be forcing that consensus a little bit, in reality there should be the odd poll showing him outside of that very narrow range.

I still think he should win a run off without any issues, it would basically take Fillon's supporters all rallying round Le Pen; and Hamon and Melenchon's either abstaining or voting blanc in massive numbers for Le Pen to wind up winning.

[parochial boy]

There have been lots of defections to support Macron, but the party is backing Fillon again. Lol "centrists", I never understand why France is full of these joke parties that are basically just annexes of the bigger one - UDI for LR; PRG for the PS...

[parochial boy]

Which one is Borloo's faction and why hasn't kicked them up the arse for supporting Fillon?

Also, the mention of Lagarde and UDI remants reminded me of this abomination :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyLOy7l_jP4

Les jeunes du neuf-deux.

I just had to try and convince my flatmate that I was watching porn

[parochial boy]

Hamon 77%
Arthaud 77%
Melenchon 73%
Poutou 72%
Cheminade 65%
Macron 56%
Dupont-Aignan 46%
Le Pen 44%
Fillon 40%

Dissapointing to see that Poutou isn't taking off in the polls after the debate

[parochial boy]

(Surely Hamon is becoming more of a non-factor & he will collapse probably - Would Melenchon gain if Hamon withdraws because some voters may shift to Macron as well

I don't think Hamon can withdraw, as it would relinquish the hold his faction in the PS finally have over the party. They can blame the result on Hollande. While its imploding its still a usefull tool for the legislatives, as discussed previously.   

Add to that, if Hamon withdraws now, then the PS will obviously miss the 5% threshold to have their campaign costs refunded. So there is obviously a huge financial incentive to stay in.

[parochial boy]

The way things are going, don't be too surprised if the run off ends up Lassalle - Asselineau

[parochial boy]

In case anyone is wondering about how different demographics are lining up to vote. IFOP has a pretty cool tracker that you can use to see how their polls have evolved, including demographic breakdowns, party identity, evolutions of "certainty to vote" and all that.

click here

[parochial boy]

[parochial boy]

I would have sworn that Chirac beat Jospin in 1995

Also, given the peculiar dynamics of this election, I don't think historical bellweathers are going to be very useful. The Nièvre is a traditionally left wing department, but who knows how its vote is going to split between Macron (a spectacularly bad fit for and ageing and rural area), Hamon and Mélenchon

[parochial boy]

I would like to issue a warning about overreacting to post-debate bubbles. Remember Nick Clegg in 2010.

[parochial boy]

The real news though here is that Marine Le Pen has started to sound like her father again. It is indeed surprising that she is bringing up the WW2 revisionism.

Hmm, I wonder if maybe Marine is a bit worried about the inexorable rise of her niece, especially if Philippot is going the other way.

Have you got any links to the FN docs from the 70s/80s by the way? I would be interested in watching some of them