2017 French Presidential Election

[SunSt0rm]

I dont think Macron is really happy about this endorsement tbh.

Is there a list of PS prominents who they support?

Macron: Valls, Le Drian, Collomb
Hamon: Aubry, Cazeneuve, Montebourg, Hidalgo
Neutral/Undecided: Hollande, Royal, Ayrault

[SunSt0rm]

its not unlikely anymore Hamon will end up in single digits.

[SunSt0rm]

Anyone watching the debate?

[SunSt0rm]

Yea I agree, 11 is way too much and bit chaotic. Poutou is speaking way too fast and Lassalle way too slow speaks like a drunk person. Its funny to see how Le Pen has to defend herself against Asselineau and Melenchon against the other minor leftish candidates

[SunSt0rm]

Macron 63%
Fillon 60%
Dupont-Aignan 50%
Hamon 49%
Arthaud 49%
Poutou 48%
Le Pen 44%
Cheminade 41%
Melenchon 39%

[SunSt0rm]

Have there been any serious polls on Melenchon vs Le Pen? I see on wikipedis there is one with 68%-32% but I cant really believe he would do better than Macron would

[SunSt0rm]

Hamon indicates that he would rather endorse Melenchon than Macron if he loses the first round

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/04/09/benoit-hamon-appellera-a-voter-jean-luc-melenchon-s-il-perd-au-premier-tour_5108409_4854003.html

[SunSt0rm]

Opinionway

Le Pen 24% (-1%)
Macron 23% (-1%)
Fillon 19% (-1%)
Melenchon 18 (+2%)
Hamon 9% (-1%)

[SunSt0rm]

Seems to stabilize now

Elabe
Le Pen 23% (-0.5%)
Macron 23% (-0.5%)
Fillon 19%
Melenchon 17%
Hamon 10% (+1%)

Certain of vote
Melenchon 65% (+4%)
Hamon 54% (-7%)
Macron 73% (+6%)
Fillon 74% (-4%)
Le Pen 83% (+2%)

Run off scenarios

[SunSt0rm]

Tracking polls

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 24% (=)
Macron: 23% (=)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 18% (=)
Hamon: 8% (-1)

Second round
Macron 63% (+1), Le Pen 37%

Ifop
Le Pen: 24% (=)
Macron: 23% (=)
Fillon: 19% (+0.5)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (+0.5)
Hamon: 8.5% (-0.5)

Second round
Macron 58.5% (+0.5), Le Pen 41.5%

Yes, it seems to stabilize. Ifop maybe a little off for the second round.

Update with a new poll
Ipsos, for France Télévisions

Macron: 24% (=, since March 27)
Le Pen: 24% (-1)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (+4.5)
Fillon: 18% (=)
Hamon: 8% (-4)

Second round
Macron 62% (=), Le Pen 38%

Some interesting stats from Ipsos about second choices, suprised few of Fillon and Le Pen electorate see each other as ideal second choice

Melenchon:
Hamon 35%
Macron 21%
Poutou 10%
Le Pen 6%

Hamon:
Melenchon 53%
Macron 27%

Macron:
Melenchon 27%
Hamon 21%
Fillon 19%
Le Pen 9%

Fillon:
Macron 56%
Melenchon 14%
Le Pen 9%

Le Pen:
Melenchon 29%
Dupont-Aignan 18%
Macron 14%
Fillon 8%

[SunSt0rm]

Elabe

Macron 23.5% (+0.5%)
Le Pen 22.5 (-0.5%)
Fillon 20% (+1%)
Melenchon 18.5% (+1.5%)
Hamon 9% (-1%)

Its close, Le Pen not reaching the 2nd would be hilarious, doing a Wilders

[SunSt0rm]

Nate Silver worries about Herding in French polls: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/852552041738141696

On the other hand, the polls in 2012 were quite constant as well (although a bit more fluctuation) and they end up well.

[SunSt0rm]

Do you guys think turnout will be less than 70% as predicted in the polls now? whereas in other years it was it was much higher, 80% or more like 2007 and 2012. And the high turnout in the Netherlands suprised everyone. Who would benefit if turnout turns out to be a higher, lets say 75-80%? My sense says Macron and Melenchon, but I dont know

[SunSt0rm]

Map of regions polled by Ipsos. Didnt expect Fillon to be better in Ile de France, thought it would be favorable to Macron, also suprised seeing Macron 4th in PACA

[SunSt0rm]

Opinionway
Macron 23%
Le Pen 22%
Fillon 21% (+1%)
Melenchon 18% (-1%)
Hamon 8%

According to Politico a swiss newspaper will release a poll tomorrow

[SunSt0rm]

La Libre (Belgium) published a poll today, which is quite suprisingly. Dont know how trustful it is

Le Pen 26%
FIllon 22%
Macron 21%
Melenchon 17%

http://www.lalibre.be/actu/france/exclusif-presidentielle-francaise-decouvrez-le-dernier-sondage-a-quelques-heures-du-scrutin-58f9dacccd70e80512fbd23c

[SunSt0rm]

Just voted in The Hague, lines are not as long as in some other major cities abroad. Had to wait for45 min

[SunSt0rm]

Just voted in The Hague, lines are not as long as in some other major cities abroad. Had to wait for45 min

Pardon me, but who did you vote for?

Macron, although i would have voted Juppe if he won the primaires