2017 French Presidential Election

[Devout Centrist]

Melenchon will probably have a 4-6 point bump from this

4-6?! Unless Hamon implodes, I don't see that happening. Maybe a moderate boost.

Macron will solidify his position and keep tying Marine Le Pen in polls. Fillion floundered like a bass out there.

[Devout Centrist]

For the left Melenchon is basically a destructive troll and for the same left his Presidency would be even more disastrous than Hollande's to PS. I'd certainly take him over Le Pen or Fillon, but I'm not sure I wouldn't pick Macron instead if the choice boiled down to the two.

Mélenchon is a terrible person, but at least his program isn't a bunch of vague yet distinctly harmful neoliberal platitudes. He'd definitely do less harm in terms of policy, at least.

"Whatabouter" spotted

[Devout Centrist]

Well Monday's debate clearly had a positive effect on Mélenchon and a negative one on Hamon. Are they voters directly switching from the latter to the former? It's anyone's guess, but I'd say at least half of the effect is indeed just that, the other half being lukewarm Hamon voters quitting and abstentionists now choosing Méluche.

CAN'T SPOOK THE JEAN LUC!

[Devout Centrist]

Hamon's campaign is the RMS Titanic.

And Fillion is the Edmund Fitzgerald.

[Devout Centrist]

macron not being in the top 2 would need to be the biggest polling error since....does anyone know?

Ever. I mean, ever. Brexit led some polls before the vote and Trump had a small shot at winning. Every poll from mid February onward would be wrong.

[Devout Centrist]

I see Le Pen is rolling out some tried and tested Holocaust denialism today...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/politics/articles/2017-04-09/le-pen-says-france-not-responsible-for-nazi-s-vel-d-hiv-round-up

No she's not. She said she believed the French were not responsible for rounding up Jewish citizens for the Germans. That's not denial of the Holocaust. That's denial that France did anything to contribute to it.

As the article says, she was wrong, but what she said was nothing close to Holocaust denial.

Which is a lie, Vichy France willing supported the Third Reich and aided in the deportation and extermination of Jewish people.

[Devout Centrist]

Poll Harris Interactive

Macron: 24%
Le Pen: 22%
Fillon: 20%
Mélenchon: 19%
Hamon: 8%

Second round:
Macron 67% - Le Pen 33%
Mélenchon 64% - Le Pen 36%
Fillon 58% - Le Pen 42%

Another quite bad poll for Le Pen.

Damn, that is terrifying for Panzergirl

[Devout Centrist]

There is no exit poll in France.

The only thing we have is a projection based on the first votes counted in some selected polling stations by pollster.
As I said, it takes around 45 minutes to do this projection, so when the polls closed at 6pm, Belgian and Swiss media could give the information around 7pm, when French media have to wait 8pm.

To stop that, this year the first polls will close at 7pm, so the pollsters will finish their first projection just minutes before 8pm. It's unlikely that the numbers would be leaked by Swiss or Belgian medias.

Any information that will leak before 8pm on a national projection will be probably fake.

Is that what Radio Londres leaks?

[Devout Centrist]

SHOCK HORROR AS POLITICAL COMPASS DOESN'T PLACE EVERY CANDIDATE IN TOP RIGHT



still wrong obviously

Macron as the French Gary Johnson/Ron Paul is the dumbest thing I've seen all day

But of course "flawless beautiful Melenchon " gets the true leftie stamp of approval over Hamon.

Some of the dumbest political analysis ever:

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And:

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[Devout Centrist]

SHOCK HORROR AS POLITICAL COMPASS DOESN'T PLACE EVERY CANDIDATE IN TOP RIGHT



still wrong obviously

My god, that's dumb. So, they're saying a candidate further to the right on economics than Macron is unthinkable, when he's running on some minor changes to FRANCE? And that Le Pen is the most authoritarian candidate one can imagine? Up there with Hitler and Stalin?

Even Le Pen gets a better review because she's not a (((neoliberal)))

[Devout Centrist]

Politico on what Panzergirl's first 100 days would look like. Spoiler: making Trump's look boring.

Credit where it's due, unlike Trump, Le Pen is not an inept idiot.

[Devout Centrist]

Le Pen has reached about 36% chance to win the presidency on predictit, which really seems ridiculous.  I thought I was so smart betting against her at 28%, thinking the markets weren't going higher than that. Should have waited. Macron the favorite in the high 50's. I put a few dollars on him to win, but I've got about 150 dollars on Le Pen to not win the presidency at that 28% level (meaning I profit about 42 dollars if she loses either tomorrow or in two weeks.)

Call it the Brexit or Trump effect, whatever really. People are terrified it will happen again, I guess. Oddly enough the polls have called Austria's election, Italy's vote, and Turkey's referendum.