2017 French Presidential Election (user search)
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Author Topic: 2017 French Presidential Election  (Read 104447 times)
Babeuf
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Posts: 501


« on: April 05, 2017, 10:41:14 AM »

especially since fillon is FAAAAAAAR more right-wing on economical issues and also dragged LR to the right.

He and his (adopted) wing of the party (Manif Pour Tous, hard conservative types) have a lot of convergence with Marion Maréchal-Le Pen and her wing of the FN though.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/citations/2016/03/15/25002-20160315ARTFIG00166-ces-elus-lr-que-marion-marechal-le-pen-imagine-dans-un-gouvernement-fn.php

(yes, I know sorry for the source)

A lot of commentators have actually noted how Marine Le Pen's neither Left neither Right campaign backfired when Fillon was elected, because her only way to power was trying to entice the hard right of the LR into governing with her, while the 3 given candidates (Valls, Macron, Juppé) were presented as the centre-left.

Personally, I just think it has to do with her father's legacy. And her niece can try a different strategy, unless they drop the idea that it is a Le Pen enterprise a can't see tribal UMP/LR voters take them seriously as the "Gaullists" Fillipot has branded them as. Especially voters old enough to remember the OAS.
Is Marine likely to step aside in favor of her niece anytime soon though? I wasn't aware that was a possibility in the near future. 
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Babeuf
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 501


« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2017, 08:31:12 PM »

Based on the title of the chart it appears to be a poll from some point in 2016 when all those candidacies were plausible.
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Babeuf
Jr. Member
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Posts: 501


« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2017, 11:49:00 AM »

If the polls are right the biggest remaining question IMO is how much of Hamon's soft support leaves him, and whether that could push Melenchon up into the low 20s. Unfortunately, his momentum seems to have stalled out. Alternatively, it could also solidify Macron's position in the top two if they go for him. But based on some previous polls of Hamon supporters they'd split more towards Melenchon if they leave.  
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