2017 French Presidential Election

[Bumaye]

Tomorrow's Canard: neo-Nazi secretly on FN payroll.

 
  
Neo-Nazis and the Front National?  
  
Non? Si! Ohh!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3FEhHF_fzM&feature=youtu.be&t=2s  

[Bumaye]

  A Melenchon vs Macron runoff might be interesting. 

 
 
With all due respect for JLM, but Macron would most likely stomp him. The Hamon votes would be shared rather equally and probably about the same for Le Pen with a lot staying home. The Fillion votes though would probably go 90-10 towards Macron. That plus his higher share of the electorate compared to Melenchon and you would probably have something like a 65-35 for Macron. Though I think JLM could win a 2nd round against Marine but that would be a very long night that I really don't hope for.

[Bumaye]

It's funny, I always feel like I'm doing "good" in these polls. Did a similar one for the German state of Schleswig-Holstein the other day and had the CDU down at 25%. In the one for Baden-Würtemberg before the last election I had Die Linke at 96,2% - I was virtually a walking Die Linke program.  
  
Well, here are my results. I expected Hamon to be first but then again I have no idea about Arthaud:  
  
Arthaud: 78%  
Hamon: 76%  
Poutou: 73%  
Mélenchon: 70%  
Macron: 62%  
Chiminade: 55%  
Dupont-Aigner: 49%  
Fillon: 45%  
Le Pen: 44%  
  
Somewhat funny that beautiful flawless Emmanuel is rather low in this while on the political landscape thingy my point is basically on his.  
  

[Bumaye]

So looking at the lastest polls from BVA, Odoxa and Ipsos they all show the same situation for the 2nd round: 
 
Macron > Mélenchon > Fillon > Le Pen 
 
Let's me sleep quite well I have to say. Especially because I could see the center and left candidates over perform because of Hamon-supporters who see that he has no chance.

[Bumaye]

When are we gonna get more polls

 
 
Now.   
 
OpinionWay: 
 
Macron 22% (=) 
Le Pen 22% (-1%) 
Fillon 21% (+1%) 
Mélenchon 18% (+1%) 
Hamon 8% (-1%) 
Dupont-Aignan 3% (=) 
Poutou 2% (=) 
Lassalle 2% (=) 
 
2nd Round: 
Macron vs. Le Pen: 64% - 36% (+2% Macron) 
Fillon vs. Le Pen: 60% - 40% (+2% Fillon) 
 
The sample size was unusually large for OpinionWay with 2,168. Normal is ~1,400.

[Bumaye]

I'm hoping Mélenchon surprises everybody and makes the runoff. He's probably the best person to lead France after the disaster Hollande's been, since poor Hamon has no chance. Macron just comes off as more of the same old guard, just rebranded and made younger.

I'm concerned about Melenchon's russophilia... Macron's pro-EU stance makes him much more favorable in my opinion, although the French may disagree.

Why are leftists behaving this way about Russia? This is absolutely ludicrous.

 
 
It's the god ol' philosophy: If you wanna oppose Murica support Moscow. I'd love to see European left politicians more often who oppose both, the homophobic oligarch and the narcissistic billionaire.

[Bumaye]

I was actually thinking just earlier today that ISIS had been very quiet lately...it's been many months since they've done anything major

 
  
In Europe and NA maybe but don't forget that the church bombings in Egypt with 45 casualties was less then two weeks ago. And even when we include the west: The attack at Westminster happened less then a month ago. 
 
And when I google for prevented terror attacks I find quite a few recent ones. Vienna, Venedig, Paris, Göttingen, Las Palmas to name a few.