2017 French Presidential Election

[peterthlee]

There's little conclusive evidence of the FN systematically and substantially overperforming their pre-election polling, ftr.

Yup.
Polling in France is largely relevant.
If there are some flaws in polling, I'd say Macron overperforms.

[peterthlee]

By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment?

[peterthlee]

Valls will vote for Macron

Excellent!
But beware of an intra-party revolt.

[peterthlee]

Will Macron obliterate Le Pen by a similar margin in the HK Chief Executive election (67-33)?

[peterthlee]

I wonder if there will be a "Shy LePen" effect here?  The good news for her opponents is that there are 2 rounds in France, so she would lose the element of surprise and Macron or Fillon could adjust their runoff strategies accordingly.

Macron just radiates Hillary Clinton vibes to me.  I wouldn't be surprised if he blows it and gets 3rd in the first round to be honest.  If French voters can swallow Fillon's scandal enough to put him into the runoff, I think he will win.

I don't see ANY resemblance whatsoever between Macron and Hillary Clinton. Clinton had been a public figure for 25 who had vast amounts of political baggage. She was always quite unpopular personally with high negatives etc... in contrast Macron is a novelty who has never run for public office before. The people who support him see him as an fresh new face who represents novelty. He has realty positive overall approval numbers. If he ends up falling short of expectations when the votes are counted he will be more like Nick Clegg in the 2010 UK election than Hillary Clinton

He is, and will be, a successful version of James Soong, who was widely anticipated to be the heir to the Taiwanese presidency in 2000, until a gate which swayed his votes to the incompetent Lien Chan, ending up Chen Shui-bien winning the race with only a <40% plurality.

There are rumours on the island that if James Soong ascended to the presidency KMT would not even be a thing in 2004, so KMT must try their best to make him lose. Macron has virtually no baggage compared with Soong. By 2022, PS will be his party under his remote control.

[peterthlee]

Just wondering:

Let's say that out of nowhere Mélenchon very narrowly edges out Macron and is to face Le Pen in the runoff.  Who would win?

Mélenchon, 53-47, a redux of Van der Bellen in Austria.

[peterthlee]

Hamon indicates that he would rather endorse Melenchon than Macron if he loses the first round

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2017/article/2017/04/09/benoit-hamon-appellera-a-voter-jean-luc-melenchon-s-il-perd-au-premier-tour_5108409_4854003.html

The question is whether Melenchon could advance into the runoff.

[peterthlee]

Final prediction
First Round
Macron 28 (+5) ✓
Le Pen 23 ✓
Melenchon 19 X
Fillon 17 X
Hamon 11 X
Minor candidates 2 X

Second Round
Safe EM-Solid
Macron 68-32

How do you guys think?

[peterthlee]

In the case of IRV, Macron will have the election in his bag, I guess.

[peterthlee]

When are we gonna get more polls

 
 
Now.   
 
OpinionWay: 
 
Macron 22% (=) 
Le Pen 22% (-1%) 
Fillon 21% (+1%) 
Mélenchon 18% (+1%) 
Hamon 8% (-1%) 
Dupont-Aignan 3% (=) 
Poutou 2% (=) 
Lassalle 2% (=) 
 
2nd Round: 
Macron vs. Le Pen: 64% - 36% (+2% Macron) 
Fillon vs. Le Pen: 60% - 40% (+2% Fillon) 
 
The sample size was unusually large for OpinionWay with 2,168. Normal is ~1,400.

Where is Macron-Fillon? This will be hilarious.

[peterthlee]

Here in Hong Kong, diaspora are engaged to exercise their electoral rights. Queues were observed to stretch from inside to lobby in the French Consulate.