2017 French Presidential Election

[Tender Branson]

Did someone delete the main thread or what ?

[Tender Branson]

Polls by region
Macron takes the lead in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, tied in Centre.
Also Le Pen could win Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur (51% to Macron, in the second round)

Where do you see the 2nd round numbers by region ?

I only see 1st round results ...

[Tender Branson]

Polls by region
Macron takes the lead in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, tied in Centre.
Also Le Pen could win Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur (51% to Macron, in the second round)

Where do you see the 2nd round numbers by region ?

I only see 1st round results ...

Here.
You have to see the results region by region.

in Hauts-de-France it's Macron 55%, in Grand-Est and Bourgogne-Franche Comté Macron 56%

Interesting, thx.

I have already assumed that Upper France and PACA will vote roughly like Austria when I saw that regional map of 1st round results a month ago in the deleted thread.

[Tender Branson]

Why did you delete my post, Hashemite ?

[Tender Branson]

This thread is about France, not Austria.

Yes, but they have similar voting patterns.

Please do not delete stuff that don't fit your personal world-view. There's freedom of speech, no matter if you like that fact or not. Don't behave like Islamo-Fascist Erdogan and the likes ... Thx.

[Tender Branson]

This thread is about France, not Austria.

Yes, but they have similar voting patterns.

Please do not delete stuff that don't fit your personal world-view. There's freedom of speech, no matter if you like that fact or not. Don't behave like Islamo-Fascist Erdogan and the likes ... Thx.

You really, really need to stop making everything about Austria...

I write what I want and not what others want me to write.

[Tender Branson]

macron 63% lol same polls who said that brexit will fail and trump will lose.

first round will be le pen 30%, fillon and macron at about 20% each, and in second round it's all possible, le pen vs either fillon or macron 50-50. now laugh like you all laugh at trump chances to win. this site and pollsters are highly biased.

I seriously doubt this ...

(even though Hash doesn't like it, here comes the Austria comparison !!!)

Why would France vote to the right of Austria ?

[Tender Branson]

It's also virtually impossible for Le Pen to win the runoff, just looking at the favourable numbers of the candidates:

* Le Pen has 30% favorable ratings and 65% unfavorable ratings, Macron is at 50-45 (or virtually even).

* Trump was at -10 to -20, Hillary was only slightly better. Hillary won the election by 2, when we exclude the EC, which is relevant when comparing it to European elections.

* Hofer on the other hand had virtually-even or slightly positive favourable ratings, the same as VdB (even though his were slightly higher). VdB won by 1 and 8 points.

I think the GE election polls in France are accurately predicting the state of the race right now. Only a major deterioration in Macron's personal numbers could narrow the margin.

[Tender Branson]

The far-right candidate may even have the backing of more than 30 per cent of voters ahead of the presidential elections in late April and May, it has been claimed.
In an article for French newspaper Le Figaro, columnist Ivan Rioufol says the statistics comes from 'hidden surveys'.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4335534/Is-Marine-Le-Pen-actually-miles-ahead-French-polls.html

Somehow I knew the Daily Mail comments would be pro-Le Pen.

"Hidden" polls ...

Anyway, polls before the Austrian 1st round were also off by a lot (by more than 10 points), but that's because Hofer was a popular politician.

Le Pen is not.

[Tender Branson]

macron not being in the top 2 would need to be the biggest polling error since....does anyone know?

Hash, be patient ...

Austria 2016, first round.

[Tender Branson]

Not that it means a lot, but Le Pen has reached 47% for the first time against Fillon in the runoff.

Against Macron she's still around 40%.

[Tender Branson]

Macron just radiates Hillary Clinton vibes to me. 

on the contrary.

valls would have been much more like hillary, with the difference, that he seems to be much more principled and there aren't enough push-forces behind him in france, to get him into round 2.

macron is a charismatic outsider and a new force, while le pen is politically old and her ideas and her presence are rusty and well-known.

Yeah, comparing Macron with Hillary is odd. She was a terribly flawed candidate from the start with low favourable ratings. Macron can be compared with a younger version of Alexander Van der Bellen. Macron should get at least what the polls show. The question is if Le Pen underpolls or not. I guess not.

[Tender Branson]

New "Terrain" poll showing Melenchon in 3rd place:

[Tender Branson]

That looks about right.

[Tender Branson]

So it looks like my dream might very well come true. That's not a good thing.

It's more and more shaping up to be a mirror of the Austrian 1st round ...

Le Pen = Hofer (or even closer: Strache), the established candidates from the Far-Right
Macron = Griss (the unused centrist candidates)
Melenchon = Van der Bellen (the rising leftist shootingstars)
Fillon = Khol (the used candidates from the disgraced center-right)
Hamon = Hundstorfer (the used candidates from the disgraced center-left)
Dupont = Lugner (the weird right-liberal candidates)

There is one major difference between Austria 1.0 and France 1.0 though:

Fillon has a better standing than Khol did (17-20% vs. 11%), so Le Pen will not reach 35% like Hofer, but will top out at 28% at best.

Except for the fact that the far-right candidate will come in first to loose in the second round it's barely anything like the Austrian presidential race. You just always need to find a way to bring Austrian politics into everything.

The fact that you put an equal sign between the far-left demagogue Melenchon and the respected centrist Green Van Der Bellen show how far-fetched you have to to be make it "the same", and even then it doesn't work because Melenchon is no where close to come in second at the moment, still polling around 15-17% in most polls and thus in fourth place.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obsessive%E2%80%93compulsive_disorder

[Tender Branson]

Elabe

Macron 23.5% (+0.5%)
Le Pen 22.5 (-0.5%)
Fillon 20% (+1%)
Melenchon 18.5% (+1.5%)
Hamon 9% (-1%)

Its close, Le Pen not reaching the 2nd would be hilarious, doing a Wilders

Fillon seems to be gaining recently ...

He was at 17% a few weeks ago and has now creeped back up to around 20%.

[Tender Branson]

Nate Silver worries about Herding in French polls: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/852552041738141696

Well, he could be right.

What % of voters still remain undecided ?

[Tender Branson]

Melenchon hits 20% for the first time in the Ipsos/Le Monde poll:

http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/enquete_presidentielle_ipsos_le_monde.pdf

All-time-low for Hamon too. Le Pen and Macron also seem to be dropping slightly. Fillon stable.

[Tender Branson]

I have a feeling the polls will be off significantly in the first round, but don't know yet in which direction.

Just like the polls in Turkey, which are understating the "Yes" vote: Polls show a tie, I expect Yes to win with 58.6%

[Tender Branson]

The regional poll from Ipsos also had 2nd round results. There's no map, but Wikipedia has the results in tabular form:



1st round:

[Tender Branson]

For example, on twitter a Mélenchon voter said that an Austrian poll done by the BIFIE (a think-tank on education I believe) has Le Pen and Mélenchon in the lead

You have also this fantasy of polls done by the domestic intelligence service (they used the acronyme RG, Renseignements généraux, which doesn't exist since 2008)

A classic, the internet poll

And this time a Canadian firm has the favors of Fillon's supporters, it mesures the impact of social media. And it's so right because they predicted Trump (which they didn't), the Brexit (which they didn't), and Fillon's victory in the primary (and they also predicted that Sarkozy will be in the runoff)

The Bifie is part of the Austrian Ministry of Education.

They provide the high school graduation questions for example.

They would never poll the French presidential race though.

[Tender Branson]

Here's a map of the 2015 regionals by town (I guess rural France will deliver strongly for Le Pen tomorrow and the map could be even further dark-blue):

[Tender Branson]

So the first voters have started voting... in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon. It's on, fellows, for better or worst.

5.000 eligible voters.

BOOM !

[Tender Branson]

Austrian Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) endorses Macron ... and not Hamon:

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5205246/Kern_Ich-bin-kein-Masochist

[Tender Branson]

last poll (the newspaper "tribune de genève" doesn't say wich polling firm is). The majority of polled after the terrorist attack.

Macron 24 (-0,5)
Marine 23 (+1)
Fillon 20,5 (+1)
Melanchon (-0,5)
Hamon 7
NDA 3
Asselineau 1
Lasalle 1

the pollster say that there is a (minor) boost for Marine and Fillon due to the terrorist attack.

The full boost will only materialize tomorrow I guess.