2017 French Presidential Election

[Antonio the Sixth]

...well, that is weird.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think I was the OP from the other thread, but I don't know what happened.

https://web-beta.archive.org/web/20170108204647/https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?PHPSESSID=867b6895b62569a2c676d095a1d165cc&board=12.0

yes, you definitely were OP.

This is definitely a fault of the forum though - it's happened before where good discussion is permanently lost because of an accidental delete by mods or an OP.

All those posts argung about whether Macron is left wing or not, just dissapeared

I was quite proud of a few of mine.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm becoming resigned to FBM at this point. At least it won't be Nepotistic Thatcher Wannabe. Then again, I was "resigned" to Hillary last October...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is this just the time the candidates themselves have spoken, or does it include the time during which the media has talked about the candidates? FBM and Panzergirl ought to do a lot better on the latter metric.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So in terms of "indirect exposure" time it's:

279 Thatcherboy
139 FBM
96 Panzergirl
67 Hamon
25 Mélenchon

In other words, "F**k off, leftists, we have decided that this race is between corrupt mean neoliberal, pragmatic nice neoliberal, and big bad fascists."

[Antonio the Sixth]

So in terms of "indirect exposure" time it's:

279 Thatcherboy
139 FBM
96 Panzergirl
67 Hamon
25 Mélenchon

In other words, "F**k off, leftists, we have decided that this race is between corrupt mean neoliberal, pragmatic nice neoliberal, and big bad fascists."

You can't just put everything in the media's basket. A candidate also has a responsibility for his visibility.

How so? Candidates are doing all they can to win, and they have an interest in getting visibility, so it's not like they'd deliberately choose to avoid it when they have a chance to get it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why is PACA so right-wing?

In a nutshell, pieds-noirs, the tourism industry, and strong anti-immigration sentiment. Gaël would have a lot more to say about it, of course.

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, Hamon is f**ked.

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, Hamon is f**ked.

I would vote for Mélenchon if he has a chance to reach the run off.
A d you?

If he has a chance, yes.

But if neither of them has a chance, I'll vote for Hamon because he's a better person and has better policies.

[Antonio the Sixth]

For the left Melenchon is basically a destructive troll and for the same left his Presidency would be even more disastrous than Hollande's to PS. I'd certainly take him over Le Pen or Fillon, but I'm not sure I wouldn't pick Macron instead if the choice boiled down to the two.

Mélenchon is a terrible person, but at least his program isn't a bunch of vague yet distinctly harmful neoliberal platitudes. He'd definitely do less harm in terms of policy, at least.

[Antonio the Sixth]

SFIO eventually transformed into the PS after Defferre's disastrous defeat in 1969. What should PS transform into now?

En Marche! - Left-wing Tendency

[Antonio the Sixth]

RIP Henri Emmannuelli. I guess it's appropriate for a historic leader of the PS left to pass away today...

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, the hilarious implosion of Fillon really is a massive silver lining of this election.

freedom magazine once again.

The Canard is a national treasure, yes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Poll, OpinionWay for Le Point

Who convinced you the most?
Macron: 24%
Le Pen: 19%
Fillon: 19%
Mélenchon: 15%
Hamon: 10%

Do you have a better or worse opinion of the candidate?
Macron: better 29%, same 52, worse 19%
Mélenchon: better 27%, same 59%, worse: 14%
Hamon: better 18%, same 58%, worse: 24%
Le Pen: better 18, same 56%, worse 27%
Fillon: better 14%, same 55%, worse 30%

Honnest: Mélenchon 69%, Hamon 62%, Macron 59%, Le Pen 34%, Fillon 24%
Presidential: Macron 62%, Fillon 49%, Le Pen 38%, Mélenchon 35%, Hamon 33%
Authority: Mélenchon 67%, Le Pen 65%, Macron 63%, Fillon 59%, Hamon 32%
Credible: Macron 59%, Mélenchon 44%, Fillon 38%, Hamon 37%, Le Pen 36%
Understands the concerns of the French: Mélenchon 65%, Macron 56%, Le Pen 54%, Hamon 52%, Fillon 35%

According to this poll, Mélenchon must've performed incredibly well in the debate. I wish that'd translate into a significant surge in support.

You realize that any Mélenchon gains will come at Hamon's expense, right?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mélenchon's absolute ceiling is probably around 15%. There just aren't that many French people who find his political views acceptable. He is also a self-important, pretentious egotist who would burn the country to the ground if doing so made him look cool. He has some good policies, but a lot of them are sheer populist grandstanding, and his presidency would trigger a serious crisis in the EU.

Hamon has basically all the good aspects of Mélenchon's platform without the bad that comes with him.

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, if Fillon somehow still manages to win, France is officially a joke country.

[Antonio the Sixth]

lolfillonlol

Also, yeah, if history is any indication Le Pen is probably going to overperform by a couple of points. Still not nearly what she needs to have a serious shot.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mr Trump Fillon: it's likely that I'm tapped (and of course Hollande receives the tapes)

At least he didn't misspell "sur écoute".

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's well-known that I-AR avatars are the ultimate arbiters of the left-right spectrum in European countries.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hamon a little bit desperate tonight: endorsements of Macron are "stabs in the back", "I'm told an execution next week with Valls' endorsement of Macron". He won't dropout in favor of Mélenchon because he "will be in the second round"

Wow, that's FilLOL levels of paranoia and delusions

He's absolutely correct. Valls broke the pledge he signed when he participated in the primary. He is a liar, plain and simple.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is obviously false. The main cleavage is that the former has been a minister during the finishing quinquennat, has a whole lot of former ministers or even outgoing ministers and deputies around him as candidates for the législatives, and is trying very hard to appear as different from the outgoing majority whereas he is just the exact same thing and would do the exact same sh**t.

Oh FFS, you can be critical of Hamon without being a disingenuous, self-righteous hack.

[Antonio the Sixth]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

[Antonio the Sixth]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

you should think positive, in other countries, after 5 years of someone like hollande, the "left" would be in an even worse shape. i wonder if - by some accident or some other reason - melenchon would have dropped out or declined to run, his voters would have chosen hamon.

I'd say around half of them would have voted Hamon and half gone to minor candidates or abstained.

[Antonio the Sixth]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

Who are you talking about in both cases?

Isn't it obvious?

[Antonio the Sixth]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

Who are you talking about in both cases?

I understand Antonio's frustration about Hamon's predicament.

It's a year of truth, with a real right-winger as LR candidate and a real left-winger as PS candidate.

OK, and was he referring to Jospin in 2002?

Yes.